NHL Eastern Conference Final Preview: Lightning vs. Rangers

In the spring of 2015, the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers went head-to-head in the Eastern Conference Final. The two teams, at the time, were in very different places – the Lightning were just emerging as Cup hopefuls with Jon Cooper at the helm, while the Rangers were desperate to keep their window open.

Seven years later, these clubs meet on the same stage once again. And, fittingly, they’ve taken two very different paths here. The Lightning arrive as back-to-back Stanley Cup champs, while the Rangers are emerging from a complete roster and front office overhaul since their last trip to this stage.

This year, the Rangers have bested Tampa in all three regular-season meetings, and are playing a particularly thrilling brand of hockey – their best games come when their backs are against the wall. The Lightning, meanwhile, coasted through Round 2 and have had plenty of time to rest… and we’re about to find out whether or not that’s a good thing.

As different as their paths to get here have been, these teams show plenty of similarities: We’re about to see a clash of two high-scoring offences whose arsenal of weapons is deep and includes some impressive special teams performances. But perhaps most importantly, we’re about to find out what happens when the Lightning match up against a goalie that could, potentially, be as good as their own.

Seven years ago, it was the Lightning who came out on top, sending the Rangers packing at Madison Square Garden in Game 7 and effectively shutting down that core’s last best chance of winning. What story will this series tell?

Here’s what you need to know about this Eastern Conference Final between Tampa Bay and New York.

HEAD TO HEAD RECORD

Lightning: 0-2-1

Rangers: 3-0-0

What we’ve learned about the Lightning

The back-to-back Stanley Cup champions are still hungry, and they’re proving once again they can defeat clubs in any fashion.

Against the Maple Leafs, offence was on full display before Andrei Vasilevskiy (almost completely) shut the door in Game 7. Against Florida, Vasilevskiy resembled a brick wall, the Lightning suffocating the Panthers’ once-potent offence.

Against the Rangers, who boast offence in spades and a goalie also capable of stealing games, they might need to implement both.  

The team’s success through two rounds of play follows a similar template to that of the past two years, leaning on the elite offence led by Nikita Kucherov, a smart blue line with Victor Hedman at the helm, a hard-nosed group of depth scorers that can bring the skill when the top lines are tied up, and otherworldly goaltending from 2021 Conn Smythe winner Vasilevskiy. There are even parallels to be made in the obstacles they face -- two years ago, the team had to play nearly the entire playoff run without captain Steven Stamkos. This year, it's Brayden Point that's missing time. Point missed the entire second round after suffering an injury in Game 7 against Toronto. It’s not yet clear whether Point will be made available at any time in this conference final, but it doesn’t feel optimistic.

Head coach Jon Cooper has said that overall, they’re a lot more banged up this year than in previous playoffs at this point in time. Easing the burden brought on by the bumps and bruises is the depth the team once again possesses. The presence of middle-six acquisitions like Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul, who have already dressed up and down the lineup alongside the likes of Ondrej Palat, Corey Perry, and Ross Colton has already proven to be worth the trade costs, and as the team's depth continues to be tested they're likely to continue coming up big just as the club's previous third-line trio of Yanni Groude, Barclay Goodrow, and Blake Coleman did before.

The biggest question here isn’t really about the lineup or style of play – it’s the age-old debate of rest versus rust – something which, in the team’s first two Cup runs, they haven’t dealt with.

So swift was their defeat of the Panthers, they’ve found themselves with more than a week off between series considering the Rangers needed a full seven games to best the Hurricanes.

“It’s a little different, actually. We’ve had a pretty good run here over the past almost decade and unfortunately I’ve been on the side of the sweep — the bad end — a couple of times, but never on the good end. So, this has been a little different for us,” Cooper said during an appearance on The Jeff Marek Show last week.

“I don’t know if I love having this huge break, just because yes, you get the kind of physical aspect of it to kind of try to heal up as much as you can, but as much as that there’s this mental aspect that you worry about and the edge and being in the fight and all those things that, naturally, you just lose when you have this much time off,” he continued.

We’re about to get our answers.  

What we’ve learned about the Rangers

Forward Chris Kreider is better known for his goal-scoring than his post-game soundbites, but he summed up the Rangers’ post-season efforts perfectly following New York’s Game 7 victory against the Carolina Hurricanes Monday night:

“We don’t go away.”

It’s true, they don’t. They didn’t go away against the Pittsburgh Penguins, who had them on the brink of elimination for three straight games in Round 1; and they didn’t against the Hurricanes, who had them right where they wanted them – at home! – in Round 2’s Game 7, delivering Carolina their first home loss of the playoffs. In two rounds, New York played five elimination games, including two Games 7, and pulled out the victory each time thanks to clutch performances throughout the lineup.

Leading the way on offence in these must-win games is Mika Zibanejad, who’s scored four goals and tallied 11 points in five elimination and series-clinching contests, and Kreider, who has twice put up multi-goal games in these matchups, including two to seal the deal Monday night against the Hurricanes. On defence, it’s Adam Fox leading the way – he’s been sensational all post-season, but is at his best in the toughest situations, tallying 10 points in five brink games. Fox leads all defencemen in goals (five) and points (13) through two rounds and is also leading all NHL peers (with eight or more NHL games to their names) in average ice time, with 26:48 a night.

Of course, we can’t talk about clutch without singing the praises of Igor Shesterkin. Shesterkin was shaky at times in Round 1 against Pittsburgh – and boy, did the fans there let him know it – but it’s become very clear since that he’s back in his comfort zone. That his comfort zone seems to be high-danger situations, with 30-plus pucks flying at him each night, is music to the Rangers’ ears. Shesterkin, who is far and away the favourite to claim the Vezina Trophy this year thanks to his regular-season heroics, has stepped up for New York in the biggest situations. The young netminder has faced 100 more shots than the next busiest netminder (Mike Smith, with 411 this post-season so far) and yet has posted the second-best save percentage among goalies that have seen action in two rounds (.928).

The goalie currently setting the pace just so happens to be the man he’s about to face across the ice, in Vasilevskiy. (More on this goalie matchup later.)

ADVANCED STATS

Playoff 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick

PLAYOFF TEAM STATS

Lightning X-Factor: Andrei Vasilevskiy

Vasilevskiy, once again, is in playoff mode. After struggling at times in Round 1 against the Maple Leafs, the Lightning netminder has returned to his Vezina-worthy, Conn Smythe-calibre self, letting in just four goals in his past five games starting with Game 7 against the Maple Leafs. He held the Panthers to just three goals, total – one per game in the first three matchups of Round 2 – before completely shutting them out in the fourth.

The Rangers have had to conquer some impressive goaltending performances, but have yet to fix their efforts on a de facto No. 1 – injuries urged the Penguins to rotate their crease and turn to third-stringer Louis Domingue, while similar concerns saw Carolina bring in rookie Pyotr Kochetkov at times, with Antti Raanta taking over the crease without regular-season starter Frederik Andersen.

New York rose to each challenge, solving every netminder eventually, but none have the proven playoff track record of Vasilevskiy.

Rangers X-Factor: Igor Shesterkin

So, how do you solve Vasilevskiy? It’s possible that you can’t – maybe the only way to defeat him is to match him save-for-save, and the only goalie potentially capable of that is Shesterkin.

Perhaps it’s a bit too obvious to point to goaltending as the top storyline in this series, but it’s not often we get a matchup as elite as this one. If you were to hand-pick a goaltending matchup for a high-stakes playoff series, it would be this, featuring last year’s Conn Smythe winner in Tampa Bay and this year’s favourite for the Vezina – and a Conn Smythe contender himself – in New York.

Shesterkin was incredible over the course of the regular season, and the biggest reason the club made it into the post-season. Though he struggled in the first round, he’s found his stride and is playing with the kind of swagger that’s made for Broadway. The busier he is, and the higher the stakes, the better he plays – he stood on his head in five elimination games already this season, and against Carolina in Round 2 he really found his stride. He posted a combined .949 save percentage on 78 shots in Games 6 and 7 to propel New York into the ECF.