NHL Off-Season Primer: Storylines, draft intrigue, teams of interest

The Florida Panthers are Stanley Cup champions and now the rest of the NHL enters a summer of transition as they attempt to dethrone them.

As the summer transactions begin to roll in, here is everything you need to know.

TEAMS TO WATCH

Who might look for real notable change?

Toronto: All eyes remain on the Maple Leafs after yet another first-round exit left the fan base exhausted of excuses and craving change. Sheldon Keefe has, so far, been the only one moved out, replaced by Craig Berube behind the bench. Most of the speculation has centred on Mitch Marner who has just one year left on his contract before he can become a UFA but also has a full no-movement clause that makes finding a trade more difficult.

An extension may still even be on the table here.

While the frenzied call for change that immediately followed their exit against Boston has cooled — at least a little bit — into accepting that perhaps things won't change as much as some would like, GM Brad Treliving has been known to blow the doors off with huge, unforeseen trades before.

Regardless of if there's a monumental shift to the core, the Leafs have quite a bit of business to get to. They need a goalie to run shotgun with Joseph Woll. They have to figure out what to do with UFAs Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi, or replace them. And their defence needs some massaging, with Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe and Simon Benoit the only regulars still under contract for 2024-25.

Vancouver: After winning the Pacific Division and taking the Edmonton Oilers to a thrilling seven-game series in Round 2, you might expect the Canucks to be a little quiet after exceeding expectations. But no front office led by Jim Rutherford tip toes around transactions and the contract outlook for the team will almost surely force them to be bold in some way this summer.

The first bit of business is done with the re-signing of Filip Hronek to a long-term extension, locking in Quinn Hughes' defence partner. That, likely, spells the end for Elias Lindholm, who could chase big dollars and a bigger role elsewhere as a UFA. It might get tight to re-sign breakout Dakota Joshua, too. Tyler Myers may yet re-sign, but the dollars are getting tight to keep pending UFA Nikita Zadorov.

Meantime, the Canucks are connected in rumours to Jake Guentzel, one of the top-scoring forwards available on this summer's market. Ilya Mikheyev is seeking a trade, and if that were to happen the Canucks would suddenly have nearly another $5 million to play with.

Los Angeles: After three straight years of getting booted in the first round against Edmonton and another coaching replacement, the pressure has ratcheted up on GM Rob Blake, who has been at the helm for seven years and overseen a rebuild that should be taking its next steps now.

The needs started in net, where a one-year bet on Cam Talbot didn't work and ended up with David Rittich starting a couple of playoff games. Blake addressed that this past week when he got out from under Pierre-Luc Dubois' contract and brought in Stanley Cup-winning netminder Darcy Kuemper from Los Angeles. But it's more than that. A 1-3-1 defensive system is expected to transform to better fit the roster, but that lineup too could change. The Kings could be seeking a new look, or to change up their roster in some way to bring back a fresher outlook and a new way of attacking the teams atop the tough Pacific.

Vegas: At this point, we always have to expect the Golden Knights will be active, and aggressively so. As long as Mitch Marner's name is in trade rumours, Vegas' connection won't be far behind — and a trade of that magnitude would surely change Vegas' look. First, however, they have an important UFA of their own to figure out, with 2023 Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault on track for the open market on July 1.

The Golden Knights, as usual, don't have a ton of cap space to swim in (second least in the league), but they've proven to be a creative front office that is always in on everything. And, after a season in which they claimed just the final playoff spot in the West and then were eliminated in Round 1, GM Kelly McCrimmon and Co. won't just sit on their hands and be content running it back untouched.

Who might look to step up?

Ottawa: Right away the No. 1 expectation is that the Senators will try and find a trade for Jakob Chychrun. Heading into the final season of his contract, Chychrun is one of three left-shot defencemen who are all top-fours at the position, with Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson as the others. There just doesn't appear to be room for all three of them and their contracts, so Chychrun is the expected odd man out.

The Senators have also made it known they are in the hunt for a goalie and would rather not return with Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg as the only options. They're also looking for more veterans to surround their still-young core with. In turn, the Senators hold the seventh overall pick, which could very much be in play as they look to turn the corner and get into the playoffs before that core starts to doubt the plan ahead. There is already some buzz that a framework of a trade with the Philadelphia Flyers could be in place.

Chicago: The Blackhawks tore everything down to start fresh and build around Connor Bedard. After one season with their sensational young centre, it might be time to start surrounding him with quality, top-line players. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reported that Hawks GM Kyle Davidson was "looking around for a top-six forward and perhaps a middle-six forward, too."

Chicago has nearly $33 million in cap space and is still well below the salary floor. None of their forwards are signed beyond the 2025-26 season, though they'll be cautious not to sign too many big-money, long-term deals too quickly, which could in turn handcuff them down the road. This is still a rebuilding outfit holding the second and 18th overall picks in the first round of the draft. They won't be chasing the playoffs next season, but will be mindful to give Bedard better support.

Buffalo: Already set up to have a boatload of salary cap space heading into the summer, GM Kevyn Adams and the Sabres could open up over $7 million more if they officially buy out Jeff Skinner when the window opens. If they do, Buffalo would be one of four teams that will have more than $30 million in cap room to work with and, unlike the rest of them, they'll be a motivated buyer.

It's been 13 years now since their last playoff appearance and Adams has been GM for the past four misses. He inherited Ralph Krueger as head coach before dismissing him in 2021, and just fired Don Granato to bring in Lindy Ruff as the replacement. Now the pressure will turn squarely to Adams as he figures out which levers to pull in an important off-season.

"I take responsibility for this," Adams said at his season-ending press conference. "First and foremost, I want all of you to know that I'm up here talking about (Granato) and I'm talking about the coaching staff needing to be better, but I need to be better. It's on me, I'm the leader, and I will be, but I take that seriously."

THE DRAFT: ORDER UNCERTAIN AFTER TOP PICK

We know who will go first overall, and Sharks GM Mike Grier confirmed Macklin Celebrini will join San Jose next week.

After that, things could get very interesting, very quickly.

Many, if not most, draft lists have Russian forward Ivan Demidov as the next-best prospect in the 2024 class. That's where our scout, Jason Bukala, has Demidov ranked. And earlier this week Bukala wrote of Demidov: "Some of my European contacts believe he is inching closer to consensus No. 1 pick Macklin Celebrini in relation to his explosiveness and pure skill."

Demidov wasn't at the NHL Combine, but was at an event last week organized by his agent Dan Milstein, where NHL teams got a glimpse of him and got some measurements.

So the second overall pick is where the potential for a draft-disrupting selection could happen, but there is lots of uncertainty in the order after Celebrini.

If you're looking for a defenceman near the top of this draft class, there are six who all have the potential to be top 10 picks. In order of Bukala's rankings, those defencemen are Artyom Levshnov (No. 3), Zeev Buium (No. 4), Anton Silayev (No. 6), Zayne Parekh (No. 7), Sam Dickinson (No. 10) and Carter Yakemchuk (No. 13).

But don't sleep on the other forwards either. Cayden Lindstrom has top-five potential, but also dealt with a herniated disc in his back this season, which has led to some pause. Tij Iginla was not a top-10 prospect coming into this season, but has surged up the rankings after a 47-goal campaign in the WHL and now could be a top-five pick — and certainly a top-10. Berkly Catton is an electric offensive talent. Beckett Sennecke has been another riser all season and, still with room to add plenty of weight and strength to his six-foot-two frame, projection is a key piece of evaluating this player. Jett Luchanko is a favourite riser of Bukala's.

Depending on who you ask, a real significant tier break in prospect upside happens around picks 16-20. Interestingly, last month the Islanders and Blackhawks made a type of trade you usually see on the draft floor — Chicago acquired picks 18 and 50 from New York for picks 20, 54 and 61. Is that just a matter of the Blackhawks moving into a part of the draft they feel is ahead of a tier break, or could this lead to another move on the draft floor?

Seven teams have more than one first-round pick: Anaheim, Calgary, Chicago, Montreal, Ottawa, Philadelphia and San Jose. None of them have a third pick in the first round, though.

Expect that to change. The GMs in Ottawa (seventh overall), New Jersey (10th overall) and Buffalo (11th overall) have all indicated they are willing to move their pick if it helps their roster for next season. Even Don Waddell, holding the fourth overall pick with Columbus, suggested he could trade out from there, though it would take something really special to do so.

Generally, the 2024 draft class is not regarded as one deep in high-end talent, so keep an eye on any teams looking to trade out of the mid-to-later rounds to gather more picks for the 2025 draft cycle.

The Utah Hockey Club has the most control of the draft board, with a league-high 13 picks (six combined in Rounds 2 and 3). Montreal has 12 picks overall, while Philadelphia is heading in with 10.

FREE AGENCY: RISING CAP MEANS A CHANGING MARKET

The most interesting factor in free agency this year (and it will affect the trade market too) is that the salary cap is finally rising by a notable amount — from $83.5 million this past season to $88 million next. It's the largest single-season jump since it last went up by $4.5 million from 2017-18 to 2018-19.

That means we'll have to recalibrate salary expectations. The highest cap hit in the league right now is Auston Matthews' $13.25 million and while that might hold for another year, it'll certainly get passed by Connor McDavid when he extends a year from now. But, before then, Leon Draisaitl can sign an extension this summer — could he go past Matthews' number? Igor Shesterkin has one season left on his contract, but can extend this summer as well — will he become the highest-paid goalie in the league, passing Sergei Bobrovsky's $10 million (or Carey Price's inactive $10.5 million)?

This will also certainly change the calculation for this year's class of UFAs, none of whom we'd expect to challenge Matthews' rate. Still, there are some very good players coming off very good seasons available and, given there are more dollars available now, there could be some initial sticker shock. Remember: cap hit percentage against the upper limit is a key bit of context.

Among some of the top forwards available are Jake Guentzel, a Stanley Cup champion and trade deadline acquisition by Carolina. Sam Reinhart in Florida may yet stay with the Panthers, but he just had perhaps the best contract year of all time, finishing with 57 goals. If the Golden Knights don't get their business done, Marchessault would be available after scoring 42 goals — and it is not often a Conn Smythe winner hits the open market still in his prime. In Vancouver, Elias Lindholm had a great playoff and teams are always after centres to play in the top six. And we continue to wonder what will happen with Steven Stamkos (more on that later).

The defence market isn't as flush with top-pair superstars but is full of the defensive mindset, grit and attitude teams chase. Chris Tanev was a coveted trade deadline pickup the Dallas Stars may yet keep, but would have many suitors on the open market. Zadorov's play with the Canucks led to his value soaring and perhaps pricing himself out of that town. Brett Pesce has long been a reliable part of Carolina's deep defence corps. If offence is what you need, however, there are still a few options: Florida's Brandon Montour led their power play most of the season and Shayne Gostisbehere registered 56 points.

"Some of these UFA D out there are getting Orlov offers," Elliotte Friedman said on The Jeff Marek Show. When Dmitry Orlov, a shutdown defender, became available as a free agent last summer, he signed a two-year deal with Carolina and a $7.75 million AAV. Short term, big money.

"I've heard that's been out there for a few of these UFA guys," Friedman said.

OTHER TOP STORYLINES

Who will get bought out?

For a while there was some question if Pierre-Luc Dubois would get bought out by the Kings if they could take advantage of a one-third rate, versus the usual two-thirds. However, with Dubois shipped to Washington, the Capitals are far more likely to keep him as a centre. There has been some speculation in New York that captain Jacob Trouba could also get bought out of the final two years of his contract, but that's more on the long-shot side of things.

Last week Friedman reported that the Sabres were considering buying out the remaining three years of Jeff Skinner's contract, which would free up Buffalo to do more business in the summer.

In Edmonton, where winning now is the only goal and new contracts to Draisaitl and McDavid are coming up fast, it might be time to consider buying out Jack Campbell. Now that Stuart Skinner has stepped up into the starting role, buying out Campbell — who was relegated to the AHL this season — would save the Oilers a few million in cap space for the next three years before a relatively minor $1.5 million penalty for three years. Keep in mind the salary cap is tracking to be much higher by then.

In Detroit, Justin Holl became a healthy scratch and played just 38 games after signing a three-year contract last summer. The Red Wings do have some of the most cap space of any NHL team heading into the summer, but have important — and expensive — RFAs Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider to secure. At the same time, GM Steve Yzerman has to start getting progress from his roster, so every dollar could help and they'd save a couple million for the next two years by offloading Holl.

Potential for fireworks in the goalie market

A couple of weeks ago we explored the landscape of this summer's goalie market, and while that corner of front-office play generally fizzles out and is quiet, there's reason to believe it could be much different in 2024 — and, heck, the fun's already begun.

First, with Sergei Bobrovsky, Jake Oettinger and Igor Shesterkin all leading their teams into the final four, the takeaway some teams could have is that you do need an elite netminder to get over the hump.

The first two moves out of the gate saw Calgary send Jacob Markstrom to New Jersey, completing a long-rumoured deal with the Devils. Los Angeles also needed a netminder and got Darcy Kuemper out of Washington. Lest you think that's the end of the goalie frenzy, there is still a wide mix of teams who need a goalie, and others who may be open to moving one.

Linus Ullmark is part of a crowded crease that is about to get more expensive when RFA Jeremy Swayman signs, and Boston may best be served trading him for other necessary upgrades to the roster. Until Juuse Saros is signed his name won't go away in trade rumours, and it's a yearly tradition to mention John Gibson in all of this.

In Pittsburgh, Tristan Jarry's part of the goalie rumour carousel. Carolina has floated the idea of changing its mix of goalies, and since they have three under contract that would mean moving one. Might Frederik Andersen be a relatively cheaper target for some team looking for a 1A/1B tandem type for a season?

The music hasn't stopped here yet. Toronto, Ottawa and Detroit are all in the market for a netminder. And though Buffalo has a couple of young guns there, we still wonder if they are looking for more experience to chip in ahead of a huge season for the franchise.

Rising cap and a possible new spender

In Arizona, the Coyotes had become something of a dumping ground for bad or unofficially "retired" contracts to help them get to the salary floor and accumulate draft picks at the same time. But now in Utah, under-motivated owner Ryan Smith, the Hockey Club could go about its business in a completely different way. We'd expect the focus to remain on drafting new talent and developing the many prospects they've recently added, but now they could be a buyer with designs on actually improving the team.

"We're going to be cautious with how we grow, but if there's opportunity we're going to take it," Utah GM Bill Armstrong said.

At the moment, Utah has the most projected cap space at roughly $43.5 million and well below the salary floor. Absolutely none of their NHL blueliners are under contract for next season, so that will be a whole project in itself. Utah is also loosely connected to various trade candidates (Mitch Marner) and some believe they could look to make a splash in their first off-season.

"I had a couple teams tell me they think what (Utah) might do is offer some kind of short-term, big AAV deals until some of their prospects are ready," Elliotte Friedman said on The Jeff Marek Show last Friday. "There are teams that think they'll take one big swing that they're a new team with a lot of enthusiasm."

At some point, those picks will need to convert into players, keeping in mind a team is only ever allowed to have 50 players under contract and 90 on the reserve list.

Steven Stamkos' future with the Lightning

Both player and GM said all the right things that you want to hear after their locker clean-out day. Julien BriseBois was "hopeful" of getting Stamkos signed to an extension. Stamkos was "excited" to have those discussions. But Tampa Bay's last game was on April 29 and, nearly two months later, there's still no new contract to report.

In the meantime, the Lightning re-acquired Ryan McDonagh after salary-dumping him to Nashville a few years ago, adding $6.75 million to their cap. That leaves them with roughly $5.3 million to work with — and, oh ya, Victor Hedman has one more season left and will be eligible to extend on July 1.

Any offer sheets?

It's always fun when an offer sheet throws a wrench into some team's plans, but it's a rarely used part of the CBA arsenal. The last two times an offer sheet was signed, it represented a little war between Montreal and Carolina — the Canadiens offer sheeted Sebastian Aho in 2019, which was easily matched. In 2021, the Canes shot back and offer sheeted Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who the Habs let walk.

Before that, you have to go all the way back to 2013, when the Calgary Flames tried to offer sheet Ryan O'Reilly, which the Colorado Avalanche matched.

This year, there could be a few potential targets for an offer sheet, if we want to dream. Carolina could again sit in the crosshairs here, with two potential targets: Seth Jarvis, who would be a high priority for them to keep, and Martin Necas, who is most certainly a trade candidate already.

Detroit has two potential targets as well, though they are swimming in salary cap space. Raymond and Seider are central pieces of their build up so it would seem next to impossible to pry them out of Michigan.

Another interesting one could be Anton Lundell of the Panthers. The 22-year-old already has 52 games of post-season experience, and is a valued centre who mostly plays on Florida's third line but could quickly become a 2C. On top of that, the Panthers are already in tough to keep every part of their group and there's a chance some team could put pressure on them by investing long-term in Lundell breaking out as an even greater player.

The compensation sent back to a team that does not match an offer sheet is determined by the AAV of the deal. All of the draft picks used as compensation must be the signing club's own picks, and not acquired from another team. Those picks must also be available in the nearest draft. The exception is if multiple picks are owed, an extra year can be added on.

This year, the draft picks compensations for an RFA if a team does not match are as follows: