NHL Playoff Push: Oilers on brink of clinching, Canucks' hopes take a hit

Thursday night was pivotal when it comes to colouring in some significant parts of the 2022 NHL playoff picture, with two more divisions locked up and the top spot in the East officially (and not surprisingly) assigned to the Florida Panthers.

The Panthers, top seed in the East for the first time in franchise history, now are two points up on the Colorado Avalanche in the Presidents' Trophy race.

So, what does the weekend bring? Here’s a look at the playoff picture as we prepare for the final meaningful weekend of the regular season.

Checking in on the Eastern Conference standings, where all eight playoff spots are spoken for:

If the playoffs started today, these would be our first-round matchups in the East:

(A1) Panthers vs. (WC2) Capitals

(A2) Maple Leafs vs. (A3) Lightning

(M1) Hurricanes vs. (WC1) Bruins

(M2) Rangers vs. (M3) Penguins

Now, for the West – a picture that’s still coming to life:

If the playoffs started today, we’d have a Central-heavy field with these first-round matchups:

(C1) Avalanche vs. (WC2) Stars

(C2) Wild vs. (C3) Blues

(P1) Flames vs. (WC1) Predators

(P2) Oilers vs. (P3) Kings

Oilers on the brink of clinching

Last weekend, the Edmonton Oilers helped the Calgary Flames officially clinch their playoff spot when they defeated the Vegas Golden Knights. This weekend, the Oilers can help themselves to a berth of their own -- a win in any fashion against Colorado on Friday night would see Edmonton officially claim its place in the post-season with 98 points.

For everyone else in the West, the scenarios are far more complicated and will go down to the wire. Because the Central is all locked up, the only way for the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars to get in is via the wild-card spots and with 93 and 91 points respectively, they’ve got the edge there. The Vegas Golden Knights are the most intriguing team here, in that they can sneak into the post-season with a wild card or by catching up to the Los Angeles Kings for third in the Pacific. Though, the odds aren’t in their favour -- Vegas has a 32-per-cent chance of making the playoffs and an eight-per-cent shot at doing so in the third seed.

Canucks’ hopes take a hit, but they’ve still got a shot

The Vancouver Canucks’ incredible stretch run came to a screeching halt Thursday night in Minnesota, a 6-3 loss that saw Vancouver fall in the final eight minutes of what had been a 3-3 matchup. That loss ended a run of eight games without a regulation defeat.

Their hopes of jumping into a wild-card spot took a major hit, with their post-season odds now down to less than two per cent. Earlier in the week, the Winnipeg Jets were officially eliminated from contention, making this wild-card race in the West a four-team fight. In order to dust themselves off after Thursday’s loss and sprint the final stretch to the playoffs, the Canucks need to win at least three of their final four games and pray to the hockey gods for the rest of the field to lose out. Cue Lloyd Christmas.

And then there was one…

One unclaimed division, that is. In the least surprising development to come out of Thursday night, two long-time division leaders, the Florida Panthers and Calgary Flames, were officially crowned regular-season champions of the Atlantic and Pacific, respectively. The Panthers did so with their 12^th straight win (and their 12^th consecutive home win, too), which also secured the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, gave them the inside edge on the Presidents' Trophy, and leaves absolutely no doubt about just how dominant this collection of players is.

The Colorado Avalanche were the first team to claim their division, doing so last week while also picking up the Western Conference crown. That leaves just a single division without a champion – the Metropolitan – and this one’s going down to the wire.

The Carolina Hurricanes have led the way all season, but the remarkable play of the red-hot New York Rangers of late means this race is all tied up at the moment. Both teams have 108 points through 78 games, but the Hurricanes still have one more regulation win than New York and also have a slight advantage in ROW should it come down to that when the season concludes next week. They also have the edge in the teams’ season series… for now. This is a score that could be settled April 26 when the powerhouse clubs go head-to-head with the division on the line. Carolina has the 2-1-0 series advantage. They also have the advantage when it comes to strength of remaining schedule, facing just one playoff-bound team (the Rangers, of course!) in their final four games as opposed to New York’s three (Bruins, Hurricanes, Capitals).

In an Eastern Conference that’s been pretty locked up for the entire stretch run, these two clubs could bring a little drama. The winner of the division will play the first wild-card team, which at the moment is Boston. The loser gets Pittsburgh in a divisional battle. Both teams are already guaranteed to have home-ice advantage in Round 1.  

Leafs, Lightning give us glimpse of first-round fight

Thursday night brought a probable playoff preview when the Maple Leafs visited the back-to-back champions in Tampa Bay and, well, it wasn’t pretty.

It’s not yet guaranteed that we’ll have a first-round series heavy on the blue and white – all three of the Maple Leafs, Lightning, and Bruins could still technically find themselves in the second or third seed of the Atlantic Division or the first wild-card spot. Per the MoneyPuck odds, the Maple Leafs have a 97.9-per-cent chance of finishing the regular season second in the Atlantic. Tampa has a two-per-cent chance of catching them, a 77-per-cent chance of staying put in third, and a 17-per-cent chance of falling into the wild-card spot.

The Lightning looked every bit of their Cup-champion selves Thursday night, from a locked-in Andrei Vasilevksiy to a sharp-shooting Steven Stamkos, and played the kind of in-your-face, under-your-skin hockey that clearly got to the Maple Leafs. Yes, Toronto was without star scorer Auston Matthews and starting goalie Jack Campbell was given the night off, but this rough outing – the Leafs’ worst loss of the season – was indeed a grim wake-up call for anyone thinking the Lightning weren’t still at the top of their game.

Toronto doesn’t have much time to rest before facing another formidable Floridian foe – they’ve got a date with the Panthers on Saturday night.

Blues and Wild lock in first-round matchup

We’ve got ourselves our first locked-in bout, with the Blues and Wild now guaranteed to go head-to-head for a best-of-seven series next month. If the playoffs started today, Minnesota would have home-ice advantage as the second seed in the division by a hair. The clubs both have 105 points on the season but the Wild get the edge for now, having played one less game. Should it go to tie-breakers once both teams play a full 82, it’s the Blues that would jump into the No. 2 spot, as they’ve got 42 regulation wins compared to Minnesota’s 35. The Blues, fittingly, secured their playoff spot last weekend with a win over the Wild, sweeping the season series 3-0. If that game is any indication, we’re in for a fun back-and-forth affair (and hopefully some overtime). But if we widen our scope a little and look at the Craig Berube era, St. Louis has a 13-1-2 record against Minnesota since 2018.

These Central Division teams have faced one another twice in the playoffs before – both first-round matchups, and both within in the last seven years. When they first went head-to-head in 2015, Devan Dubnyk stole the show – and the series. The Vezina finalist stopped a combined 66 shots in Games 5 and 6, turning a 2-2 series into a 4-2 first-round victory in Minnesota. Two years later, it was Jake Allen playing the hero as St. Louis made quick work of the Wild with a 4-1 series win. Now, with veterans Marc-Andre Fleury and Cam Talbot sharing the crease in Minnesota and Jordan Binnington heating up in St. Louis, might we see another series featuring goaltenders as the main attraction?

Biggest games to watch this weekend

With so many playoff implications, particularly in the Western Conference, here’s a roundup of some of the most intriguing matchups to come over the next few days:

Avalanche @ Oilers, Friday 9 p.m. ET: An Edmonton win means the Oilers are in.

Rangers @ Bruins, Saturday 3 p.m. ET: The Rangers are looking to win the Metro while the Bruins are fighting to avoid potentially meeting them in the playoffs.

Maple Leafs @ Panthers, Saturday 7 p.m. ET: Can Toronto shake off that dismal loss to Lightning?

Canucks @ Flames, Saturday 10 p.m. ET: Canucks need to win if they have any post-season hopes… things get a lot more interesting here if the Predators (@ Lightning), Stars (vs. Kraken), and Kings (vs. Ducks) lose their respective Saturday showdowns.

Lightning @ Panthers, Sunday 6 p.m. ET: A Sunshine State showdown to bring back memories of last spring’s first round… and perhaps playoff battles to come?