NHL Scout's Analysis: Breaking down the status and future of the Canucks

The Vancouver Canucks are a work in progress. The NHL team went through more than its share of ups and downs this season. Additionally, the prospect pipeline is relatively sparse compared to other NHL organizations, although they did add to their group from the NCAA ranks at the end of the season. 

The purpose of this exercise is to evaluate the NHL roster and forecast the future of the Canucks as a whole. Beyond player performance and trends, I take into account draft capital, contract status, injured reserve, and buyouts. It’s an exhaustive process that every NHL team goes through towards the end of their season.

With that in mind, here’s my breakdown on the Vancouver Canucks:

SALARY CAP SITUATION

Here’s a look at where the Canucks spent their dollars this season and what they have allocated moving forward:

• Pettersson’s contract counts $7.35M against the cap next season, but he is making $10.25M in actual cash with the way his current deal is structured. His qualifying offer after next season is $8.82M. It’s safe to assume Pettersson will be asking for north of $10.25M on an AAV if he signs an extension with the Canucks, which he's eligible to do starting July 1.

• J.T. Miller’s new contract kicks in July 1, 2023. It carries a full no-move clause through 2026-27, and then becomes a modified, 15-team, no-move until the end of the contract in 2029-30.

• Vitali Kravtsov is a pending RFA with a qualifying offer of $840K. He hasn’t done enough to earn an extension. It’s my observation that other players in the organization provide more upside.

• Akito Hirose was signed by the Canucks at the end of the NHL season, after he completed his NCAA schedule. The contract was a one-year deal. He is a unique restricted free agent this off-season due to his age and the way the Canucks structured his entry-level contract. His qualifying offer is set at $897,750. Hirose is waivers exempt and another NHL club cannot extend an offer sheet for his services. The only way the Canucks lose control of Hirose is if they don’t extend him his qualifying offer.

• Tyler Myers is due to receive a signing bonus on July 1 totalling $5M, which will result in him having a salary of $1M next season. His cap hit remains the same for next season ($6.0M) but a team with cap space to add him to their roster might be enticed by the lower salary. The one thing that could hold up such a transaction is the fact Myers has a 10-team no-trade list with his deal.

• Ethan Bear is a pending restricted free agent with a $2.2M qualifying offer.

• I will get into more of a discussion later in this piece regarding the Canucks' goaltending, but they are in a tough spot in relation to available salary cap and being able to have a quality back up goalie.

• Interesting note: Spencer Martin makes the same salary at the NHL and AHL levels.

INJURED RESERVE

These players ended the season on either IR or LTIR. Some are coming off the books while others have term remaining on their deals.

• Ekman-Larsson is signed through 2026-27 and has a full no-move clause. He is set to make $18.5M in actual dollars the next two seasons. The final two years of the contract pays him $11M in actual cash.

• Ilya Mikheyev was shut down late in the season after battling a knee injury. He forecasts to make a full recovery and be ready to rejoin the Canucks at training camp in the fall.

DEAD CAP AND BUYOUTS

The Canucks will inherit some extra cap space this summer. They have the following buyouts and retained salary coming off the books:

NHL FORWARDS

Elias Petterson: Petterson eclipsed the century mark in points for the first time and scored 34 more points than he did last season. He’s the Canucks best player in my opinion. Pettersson is a dynamic forward who would be a top of the lineup contributor on every team in the league. For me, he is as valuable to the Canucks as David Pastrnak is to the Boston Bruins. It’s for that reason I see his next contract mirroring Pastrnak’s $11.25M AAV.

J.T. Miller: The most polarizing player on the team this past season. Without rehashing all of the gory details, let’s just say his body language and effort ranged wildly before the Canucks' coaching change. I was a big supporter last season. He left me frustrated and confused on too many nights this season. The timing couldn’t be worse for his new contract and no-move clause to begin this July 1. I’m not comfortable saying I trust him as a leader or consistent, hard-working, detailed soldier right now.

His game improved, and he said all the right things down the stretch, but the proof will be in his play from the drop of the puck in October. When he’s at his best he’s hard to play against, plays with above average pace and creates offence in all situations. I would still listen to offers on Miller leading up to the draft. I’m 50/50 whether or not he is a fit for the next several years in Vancouver.

Andrei Kuzmenko: Kuzmenko played to his identity in his first year in the NHL. Fourteen of his 39 goals came on the power play. He’s a heavy presence around the crease in the offensive zone and he has great hands in tight. New head coach Rick Tocchet is pushing Kuzmenko to improve his detail and make responsible plays with the puck exiting his zone. He’s never going to be a perfect player on the defensive side of the puck, but his plus-9 rating doesn’t project him as a liability either. Kuzmenko’s extension made sense. He chose the Canucks over many other suitors last summer and lived up to his projection. The team did right by him.

Brock Boeser: Boeser, and his agent, were given permission to seek a trade in season. I’m not sure what the asking price for Boeser would have been. I’m also not sure about how much interest there was for his services at his salary. The bottom line for me is Boeser doesn’t play quick or fast enough up and down the ice. He produces a decent amount of offence, but it’s not elite output. He also doesn’t play a heavy/hard game along the boards or around the crease. Making matters worse for Boeser is his minus-20 rating, for perspective. The Canucks would be wise to continue attempting to move Boeser this off-season. They will likely have to eat some salary to accomplish the move.

Conor Garland: His 34 points at even strength are pretty solid and he averaged 15 minutes of ice time per game. Almost all of his time came at even strength and on one of the Canucks power play units. He ended the season with 17 goals and 29 assists. His read/react game is below average so his offensive zone exits lag behind as a result and he isn’t a forward you can count on in the defensive zone.

The bottom line is Garland's contract is too expensive for what he provides overall. If there is a market for his services I would move him for minimal return to open up cap space. The reality, though, is that I don’t believe there is a market.

Ilya Mikheyev: His season was cut short due to injury but I’m less worried about Mikheyev compared to others on this roster. Mikheyev was averaging 17 minutes of ice time per game, and being used in all situations. He produced 13 goals and 15 assists and was a plus-3. He competes and he plays fast. If Mikheyev comes back healthy, he could produce over 50 points and be counted on defensively. He lacks physicality, but if he reaches those levels he will be earning his contract ($4.75M).

Anthony Beauvillier: Was acquired as part of the return in the trade that sent Bo Horvat to the New York Islanders and Beauvillier fit in nicely with the Canucks. I appreciate his energy, compete, and consistency. If nothing else, Beauvillier works every night. He produced nine goals and 11 assists in 33 games with Vancouver – which projects to 50-plus points over the course of a full season. His contract makes sense if he approaches those numbers. Beauvillier averaged 17 minutes of ice time at even strength and the power play.

Dakota Joshua: Joshua is a depth player who averaged 11:31 of ice time and he was deployed at even strength and on the penalty kill. I appreciate Joshua’s work ethic. He competes and plays with above average pace. He also provides some push back for the Canucks (222 hits). His 11 goals are a nice bonus from a, mostly, fourth line forward and his contract makes sense, too ($825K). I’m looking for improved results killing penalties and with hard match-ups at even strength next season.

DEPTH FORWARDS

Sheldon Dries, Nils Aman, Jack Studnicka, and Phil DiGiuseppe didn’t move the needle at the bottom of the Canucks lineup. I recognize it’s difficult to spread dollars around and find value in depth role players. Having said that, those players need to play with an identity. They need to be physical, shot blockers, proficient penalty killers and proficient in the face-off circle.

This combination of players averaged 12:30 of ice time between them, scored 25 goals and 28 assists, and were a combined minus-33 on the season.

Aman and Dries took the majority of the draws at the bottom of the Canucks lineup and the results weren’t great. Aman only won 181 of 474 draws (38 per cent). Dries won 235 of 471 face-offs (50 per cent rounded up). The same group of players finished 241 hits combined.

To be fair, DiGiuseppe played the least of these forwards and showed some promise at times. If his six goals and six assists in 30 games is a sign of what he can do next season he has potential to provide some depth scoring.

RESET AND DEVELOPING

Nils Hoglander is a restricted free agent who is due a qualifying offer ($874,125) in June. He has spent the majority of his year playing at the AHL level with Abbotsford, where he produced 14 goals and 18 assists with the Canucks affiliate. He did skate in 25 NHL games this year, producing three goals and six assists.

Hoglander looked ready for a middle-six role after his rookie season, when he scored 13 goals and 14 assists in his first 56 games. Since that time, he has not established himself as a secondary scoring option, and he hasn’t played with enough detail defensively. It will be interesting to see what happens with Hoglander.

It feels, to me, like there might be a disconnect with the player and the team. I could be completely wrong. He might come back motivated and earn a job next fall, and I still believe he can be an effective NHL forward. When he’s at his best he plays a darting, relentless style and provides better than secondary scoring. Teams will be interested in taking a risk on Hoglander if he is shopped.

Vasily Podkolzin is finishing up his second year as a pro. The Canucks' first round pick (10^th overall) from the 2019 draft lacks an identity at this stage of his development.

He played 39 games for the Canucks, scored only four goals and three assists, averaged less than 12 minutes of ice time, and had only 52 hits and 15 shot blocks. He needs to play to an identity the Canucks can trust. He’s still developing, so structure and commitment will be key to him making progress this off-season.

OFF-SEASON STRATEGY: FORWARDS

• Let teams know Brock Boeser is still available. Accept the fact they will have to likely absorb 50 per cent of his salary over the remaining two years. That move, if it happens, would open up $3.325 million a season. It’s unfortunate the position the team finds itself in with Boeser, but they require the cap space and it’s better than the alternative: buying Boeser’s contract out (which would cost the Canucks over $9M).

• If a Boeser deal doesn’t look plausible, the Canucks go to the next player in line and see if there is an appetite for Conor Garland on the market, recognizing they will have to very likely absorb some of his salary as well. Another option would be to ask a team, like Anaheim for example, if they would be willing to take on the entirety of Garland’s contract if the Canucks were to throw in their second-round pick in 2025. This transaction becomes even more difficult for the Canucks to consummate considering Garland is due to make $6M in actual cash the next two seasons.

• It’s not at the top of my list, and I would continue to assess our team and options, but J.T. Miller’s body of work for the entirety of this past season cannot be ignored. He wasn’t a great teammate for long stretches and he lacked drive and consistency until the arrival of Rick Tocchet. The team has to be sure he is a fit before the his new deal starts on July 1. Part of the business of running an NHL franchise is that you have to at least survey the landscape and degree of interest for a player like Miller. I’m 50/50, sitting on the fence right now. I was all in on Miller last year but he has pushed me to the point where I have to at least listen to what’s out there.

• Any one of these transactions should, ideally, be consummated before the entry draft -- and definitely before free agency opens on July 1^st -- so that the organization can reset.

NHL DEFENCEMEN

Quinn Hughes: Hughes should get votes for the Norris Trophy. He logs a ton of minutes in all situations and his offensive skill has always been his projectable element. He’s an elite playmaker and power-play quarterback. His biggest improvement has come on the defensive side of the ledger, which has gone to another level. He’s never going to be elite in his own zone, but he’s a solid area defender who is taking better routes and containing opponents. When a player logs the kind of minutes Hughes does, and identifies as a transitional defenceman, mistakes will happen from time to time.

Hughes is by far the Canucks' best defenceman, and arguably their best player. Imagine the Canucks defence corps without Hughes.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson: There were times where I felt OEL was contributing reliable minutes and keeping his game responsibly simple. Then reality struck and things would go off the rails for stretches. Milan Lucic was quoted as saying his contract was a bit of an anchor for him and it affected his play. I feel the same for Ekman-Larsson. He played too many minutes in too many situations. He’s an average defender whose offence is trending down and whose contract is untradeable. He’s leaning bottom pairing defenceman who would be a better fit in a more sheltered role.

Tyler Myers: Myers also logged significant minutes for the Canucks. The two-way defenceman is a veteran entering the last year of his contract. His offence has trended down for several seasons. Despite his stature (6-foot-8, 229 pounds) he’s more of an area/in the way defender than a physically punishing one. He did lead the Canucks in shot blocks (144). For me, Myers is a fifth defenceman more than a middle pair guy. Considering his contract situation mentioned above, if there is a team willing to take on his cap hit and Myers agrees to the trade, I would move him to open up much needed cap relief. Having said that, it’s a big pill for the owner to swallow paying the signing bonus and then trading the player.

Ethan Bear: Bear fit in nicely with the Canucks. The bulk of his minutes came at even strength and on the penalty kill. He was deployed in heavy match-ups versus top six forwards. He moves well, is willing to block shots, and does a better than average job of keeping opponents to the perimeter. The right shot defender projects to play a second pairing role for the Canucks next season and beyond, but he requires a contract first. He’s a pending RFA and the Canucks need to qualify Bear at no less than $2.2M.

Filip Hronek: Hronek only played four games for the Canucks after being acquired in a trade with the Detroit Red Wings. He had a shoulder injury when he arrived and was wisely shut down. The cost to acquire him, at the time, was widely debated:

Time will tell how this trade works out for the Canucks. The bottom line, however, is they acquired a valuable right shot defenceman who can be deployed in a variety of roles. Hronek is a mobile puck mover and an area defender. He doesn’t block a ton of shots or play with a ton of physical edge. He’s a bumper, though. He definitely upgrades the Canucks' defence corps and pencils in as a top four moving forward.

AUDITIONING

The Canucks don’t currently have the cap space to add from outside the organization. At this stage Guiillaume Brisebois, Akito Hirose, Cole McWard, and possibly Christian Wolanin and Jack Rathbone will be battling for a role at training camp.

The skill set of this group ranges.

Both Hirose and McWard are new arrivals, via college free agency, who got a cup of coffee at the NHL level at the end of the season. Both players are best described as two-way defencemen.

Rathbone is a below average NHL defender who leans two-way/transitional defenceman who can lead the rush or join as an extra layer.

Brisebois isn’t a heavy defender, but he does get in the lane to block shots. He projects as a two-way defenceman as well.

Wolanin has had a nice season in Abbotsford, where he scored six goals and 49 assists, and the Canucks signed him to an extension. He’s an average defender at the NHL level, but he could bring another layer of offence as a recall or bottom pairing option.

OFF-SEASON STRATEGY: DEFENCEMEN

• It would be ideal if the team could find a buyer for Tyler Myers' contract, but I don’t see a team willing to pay his signing bonus.

• Realistically, the Canucks likely have to run this group back for another year and hope one of their young defenders is prepared for a full season of NHL duty.

NHL GOALIES

Thatcher Demko: If there was ever a doubt about how much the Canucks require a healthy Demko as their No. 1 goaltender, it was proven when he returned from injury in the closing weeks of the season.

Demko’s stats for the entire year aren’t impressive (3.16 GAA, .902 SV%), but it’s important to have perspective. He got off to a poor start, battled through injury, and wasn’t completely healthy until the end of the season. It’s clear he gives the Canucks their best chance to win next season, and likely beyond. Any noise about moving Demko should be eliminated given the Canucks' lack of depth at the position.

BATTLE FOR THE BACKUP JOB

Unfortunately, the salary cap rears its ugly head again! The Canucks don’t have the dollars, at this time, to shop for a veteran back-up in the off-season.

Vancouver has Spencer Martin, Arturs Silovs, and Nikita Tolopila under contract for next season. One of these goalies will win the back-up job at training camp and be called upon to play over 20 games.

Martin, curiously, is making the same salary at the NHL level and AHL level ($775K). He’s a decent AHL goalie, but hasn’t shown he can contribute consistently at the NHL level. He played 29 games for the Canucks last season, posting a 3.99 GAA and .871 save percentage.

Silovs is still developing. He played five games for the Canucks (2.75 GAA .908 SV%). The 22-year-old is a big body at 6-foot-4 and 203 pounds and he plays a butterfly-hybrid style. He’s been solid in the AHL (2.44 GAA .909 SV%).

Tolopila was signed as a free agent and he, too, is a big body (6-foot-6, 230 pounds). His stats playing for Sodertalje SK in Sweden's Hockey Allsvenskan were excellent this season (2.10 GAA, .924 SV%). However, he will need time to adjust to the North American game. When he squares up he’s difficult to beat, but his tracking and lateral push are lethargic and the game moves quicker in the AHL and NHL. He has a nice foundation to work with, but it’s not a slam dunk he is an NHL goalie down the road.

OFF-SEASON STRATEGY: GOALTENDERS

• I’m concerned about Thatcher Demko's durability. I don’t think he is the kind of goalie who can play 60-plus games.

• With some of the savings (money coming off the books hopefully via trade or trades), it’s my opinion the Canucks need to target a goalie in the off-season to absorb some of the workload.

• Free Agent targets : Laurent Brossoit (VGK), Alex Lyon (FLA), Adin Hill (VGK), Martin Jones (SEA)

SUMMER TRAINING

It will be interesting to see the progress forwards Max Sasson and Aidan McDonough make this off-season. Both joined the Canucks' organization at the end of their college seasons at Western Michigan and UCONN, respectively. Here’s a look at my college hockey scouting reports on both players before they arrived in Vancouver:

DRAFT CAPITAL

It's important to look at the Canucks draft grid for this year and beyond. It goes without saying they need to hit on some high-end prospects to fill out their depth. The 2023 draft class provides a great opportunity for Vancouver, with six picks in the first four rounds.

DRAFT STRATEGY

• Select the best player available – always – then manage the assets. The cupboards aren’t flush in any one position.

• It will depend on how the lottery plays out, but the Canucks currently slot to pick 11^th in the draft. If they are absolutely loving a player in the slot, and don’t value more than three other options between picks 15 and 22, make the pick at that spot.

• If they are close to splitting hairs on several prospects in the first-round (which is very possible with the depth of this draft class), I would pick up the phone (or maybe simply answer it when it rings!) and consider trading back and picking up a second-round pick in the transaction. They don’t currently have a pick in round two.