NHL Scout's Analysis: Looking at the Flames and how to face a critical summer

The Calgary Flames are in the midst of organizational change with the departure of former GM Brad Treliving. The new hierarchy, led by Don Maloney, is in the beginning stages of evaluating the rest of the hockey operations department.

I defer to my colleague, Eric Francis, to keep us informed about what is happening on all those fronts. My role is to evaluate the season that was in Calgary and provide our readers some insight into the process that goes on behind the scenes at the end of an NHL season -- especially for those who fell well short of their goals. We'll do this exercise for all the Canadian teams, and started with a look at Vancouver earlier this week.

I’m not sure there was a more polarizing (insert frustrating!) team in the NHL this past season than the Calgary Flames.

Before we get into the Flames roster and the future strategies, I thought it would be interesting to look at what the team stats looked like and search for outliers.

Some things are obvious, like wins versus losses. Here are some more interesting things just under the surface:

• Calgary averaged 36 shots per game in 2022-23, which was almost exactly the same amount as last season (35.5).

• They averaged 27.3 shots against per game this season, compared to 29 last season.

• The fact the Flames actually averaged less shots on goal against this season, but allowed 0.5 more goals against is an obvious outlier.  

• That the Flames scored 0.5 fewer goals per game this season, despite the fact they averaged nearly exactly the same number of shots, is also an outlier.

• Combining their drop in goals for and uptick in goals allowed equals a total of one goal per game difference. 

• It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to recognize the Flames only needed to get one more save, or score one more timely goal, to make playoffs this season.

• Otherwise many of their other statistical categories, from last season to this season, remained in range of each other...except the most important one: wins!

CONCLUSION AT FIRST GLANCE

It seems obvious, and simple. The Flames need to get better goaltending and they need to score more timely goals.

Teams work for the breaks they get and those breaks come in many shapes and sizes. Sometimes it’s a post that comes to the rescue and saves a goal against on defence. Other times it’s a post and in on offence. I get it.

The Flames lost an incredible 30 one-goal games, including 17 in extra time or the shootout. The odds of something like that happening again next season are slim.

Now that I’ve completed the easy analysis, here’s how we arrived at this point and what the future looks like for the Calgary Flames.

SALARY CAP SITUATION

• Nazem Kadri’s contract expires at the conclusion of the 2028-29 season and includes a full no-movement clause through 2025-26. In the final three years of the deal he has the option to submit a 13-team no-trade list.

• Jonathan Huberdeau’s new contract kicks in next season. His deal is also armed with a no-movement clause that concludes at the end of the 2028-29 season. In the last two years of his contract, Huberdeau can submit a list of 12 teams to which he'd allow a trade to happen.

• Blake Coleman has one more year remaining on the no-trade portion of his contract and he is signed through 2026-27. In the last three years of his deal he can submit a 10-team trade list.

• Andrew Mangiapane is a player who can be moved before July 1, after which he has the option of submitting an eight-team no-trade list in the final two years of the deal.

• Mikael Backlund is entering the final year of his contract and has a 10-team trade list in his deal. Meaning, if the Flames were to look at trading the pending UFA, he would have a say in where he lands next.

• Elias Lindholm and Tyler Toffoli are both entering the final year of their contracts. Neither player has a trade protection clause in their deal.

• Noah Hanifin’s contract has an eight-team no-trade list and he’s also entering the last year of his deal.

• Rasmus Andersson’s contract is armed with a six-team no-trade list in the final two years (kicking in for the 2024-25 season).

• Chris Tanev has a 10-team no-trade list and is another player entering the final year of his contract.

• Mackenzie Weegar’s new contract kicks in July 1. He has a full no-trade clause in the first four years of the deal and in the last four years he has the option to submit a 10-team no-trade list.

• Jacob Markstrom has a full no-movement clause until the end of his deal after the 2025-26 season.

INJURED RESERVE

• The scenario with Oliver Kylington is unfortunate and he was missed by the Flames this past season. His game was trending up. Whatever is going on with him is personal and bigger than the game.

NHL FORWARDS

Tyler Toffoli: Had a solid year for the Flames and the team couldn’t have asked for anything more from him. The bulk of his ice-time came at even strength and on the power play, but he did pitch in with some penalty-killing as well. Toffoli set new career highs offensively. He’s never been known as a burner and he’s not a guy who will back opponents off in transition when he's rushing. He does have great hands and an accurate release, though. His best work comes on the weak-side flank on the power play and from the hash marks down when he comes through the slot at even strength. He’s generally responsible off the puck and makes an effort defensively.

Toffoli has one more year left on his contract. If things don’t go well with the Flames next season, he’s a player who contending playoff teams will have interest in come trade deadline.

Elias Lindholm: There’s a couple ways to look at Lindholm’s year. A critical view would suggest his goal scoring fell off too much and it hurt the team. He scored 42 times in 2021-22 for a career high. But consider the fact he has averaged 21.87 goals per season over the past eight years, not including the pandemic-shortened season. In that context, Lindholm's 22 goals this season fit his career average overall.

Lindholm has one year left on his contract and he plays in all situations. He competes and he has good pace. He wins over 56 per cent of his face-offs, too. I didn’t have an issue with Lindholm’s game this year. He’s not a 1C, but he leans 2C. Perspective is key when evaluating his season. Lindholm played to his career identity as a player. He wasn’t the problem.

Nazem Kadri: He’s a better player than he displayed this year, but he’s also not the 87-point player he was in Colorado. I feel like he caught lightning in a bottle with his role with the Avs.

Things didn’t go well in year one of his deal with the Flames. He looked disinterested some nights, turned pucks over in the neutral zone and below his goal line at the worst moments, and struggled to gain consistent momentum offensively. His ice-time ranged wildly. The coach was clearly trying to push his buttons, but nothing went smoothly. Kadri needs a significant reset. His minus-19 rating was alarming. He needs to be much better next season.

Mikael Backlund: Backlund was arguably the Flames' most valuable forward this season. He was used in all situations, provided consistent compete, had a career year offensively, won 51 per cent of his face-offs and finished the year plus-24.

Jonathan Huberdeau: Huberdeau had his lowest point per game season since 2014-15 when he scored 54 points in 79 games with the Florida Panthers. When he arrived in Calgary last summer Huberdeau was coming off an incredible 115-point season with the Panthers. Expectations were high and the Flames needed him to produce more than he did.

He’ll be entering the first year of an eight-year extension that pays him a ton of money next season. He will always be average in the defensive zone and he’s not exceptionally fast in open ice. Huberdeau is a playmaker with great vision who needs to be more selfish and shoot the puck more often. He passed up way too many high danger scoring chances last year.

There’s no sugar coating his season. It was well below his standard and it was well below what the Flames needed. Huberdeau needs a reset. He needs to be at least 25 points better next season. If he had produced anywhere close to his capabilities, I feel like the Flames could have eked out a playoff spot off his stick alone.

Dillon Dube: Dube improved his offensive output by 13 points this season, ending with 18 goals and 27 assists. His overall game is trending positively. Dube will be 25 years young when next season rolls around, so he still has a ton of runway ahead of him. I don’t expect him to be an elite point producer, but he could score between 55-60 points in time. Dube is trustworthy. He’s used in all situations, plays fast, and has some push back (136 hits).

Andrew Mangiapane: The biggest outlier with Mangiapane’s game this year was his drop off in goal scoring. He scored 35 times in 2021-22, but only managed 17 goals this past season. Overall, his point production dropped by 12 points. The Flames obviously could have used an extra goal or two along the way from Mangiapane. But he wasn’t as much of a concern as others in the lineup. He just never seemed to get into a comfortable, consistent groove offensively. The good news is he finished plus-12, averaged just shy of 17 minutes per game and was deployed in all situations.

Blake Coleman: Coleman played to his identity. Not much changed for him this year compared to last. He scored 18 goals and 20 assists, and 16 of those goals were scored at even strength, while two came shorthanded. He plays hard minutes and doesn’t see any power play time. Coleman averaged just over 15 minutes per game. I truly believe he is one of the Flames who emptied the tank down the stretch. He plays fast, has some bump to his game, and can create havoc hunting pucks off opponents.

Trevor Lewis: Head coach Darryl Sutter appreciates what Lewis brings to the team. He trusts him in a depth role. The reality, though, is it’s time to move on from Lewis. He’s a pending UFA. He’s had a nice career and found a niche role in the league, but the Flames have better prospects in the system who need a chance (more on them below). They will provide the same kind of results Lewis does.

Adam Ruzicka: Ruzicka has always been a polarizing prospect for me. He has great size, above average skill, and he’s hard to knock off the play when he’s engaged. It looked like he might have turned a corner in the fall and found some footing at the NHL level, but he ended up playing only 44 games in a fairly limited role and scoring six goals and 14 assists. I’m not sure if he has more to give. I don’t totally trust him to contribute consistent results. But he’s entering the final year of his current contract and the Flames could have some openings amongst their forward group come the fall. It’s up to him to prepare to compete for a full-time spot on the roster.

Milan Lucic: I respect Lucic as a player and a team leader, but he’s limited and the time has come to move on from the fan favourite. He did score some timely goals down the stretch for the Flames, and he certainly has a physical presence, but the group needs to get quicker and faster at the bottom of the lineup.

Walker Duehr: Duehr is an example of what I’m talking about at the bottom of the lineup and I appreciate the way he plays. He’s listed at 6-foot-2, 210 pounds and is a prime example of a depth player who plays with pace, is willing to take pucks to the net off the rush, and has plenty of battle below the hash-marks and along the wall. He’s not going to score a ton at the NHL level, but he’s going to empty the tank and play with emerging all-around detail as he gains more experience. It’s his job to lose come training camp next fall.

Nick Ritchie: He's on an expiring contract and will be a UFA come July 1. He’s not on my radar to re-sign with the team.

NHL DEFENCEMEN

Rasmus Andersson: Andersson, overall, was a workhorse for the Flames, logging a ton of minutes in all situations. His stats year over year remained consistent. The two-way/transitional defenceman is one of the more competitive players on the roster and part of the leadership group going forward. People in the league were raving about the value of Jakob Chychrun’s contract before he was dealt to the Ottawa Senators. I think Andersson’s contract is even more valuable. Andersson isn’t shy about engaging physically and he led the Flames in blocked shots (136).

Noah Hanifin: Hanifin has one more year left on his contract before he turns UFA. He, too, logged a ton of minutes in all situations for the Flames. Hanifin is a true two-way NHL defender. He’s a solid skater who takes away time and space when he gaps up and guides opponents to the corner off the rush. He’s not elite on the power play, scoring one goal and seven assists in the role. He teases me with the look of possibly being able to provide more offence. I have no issues, overall, with Hanifin’s game. He plays hard minutes versus top two lines, blocks shots (129), and competes every night.

Mackenzie Weegar: Weegar, by his standard, took time to get acclimated in Calgary. His second half of the season was much better than his first half. By the end of the year, he was averaging between 23–26 minutes of ice time and was used in all situations. His offence dropped off compared to his final year in Florida, but that was a career high offensive season for him. Next season he'll be entering year one of his eight-year extension. I expect his game to pick up from where it left off at the end of the season. Weegar led the Flames with 186 hits and he also blocked 117 shots. I was critical of his game at the mid-way point of the season, but he’s a competitive player who pushed through and played his best hockey down the stretch. He and Andersson are two solid, right-shot defenders for the Flames' top four moving forward.

Nikita Zadorov: Zadorov scored more goals this season, but his point production was nearly exactly the same as last. Overall, his season wasn’t poor. He has a presence and plays to a physical identity. When he catches opponents in his tracks he is physically punishing. He averaged almost 19 minutes per game and was deployed at even strength and on the power play. He’s not an elite shot blocker, but he does get in the way with his 6-foot-6, 236-pound frame. My biggest concern with Zadorov has always been that his read/react and adjustments can lag behind at times, leading him to lose his man in coverage or get caught standing still on the offensive blue line, while opponents blast through the neutral zone behind him to jump on loose pucks.

Chris Tanev: He’s a warrior and a fantastic team guy. He played every game in 2021-22 and it was a huge benefit to the Flames. This past season the injury bug crept up and he was limited to 65 games played. It can’t be underestimated how important those 17 missed games were to the Flames. A healthy Tanev gives the Flames more balance on their back end, not to mention a player who is willing to finish his checks, block shots, and generally get in the grill of top-end opponents. He has one year left on his contract, too. If the Flames' season doesn’t get off to a better start in 2023-24 and they are chasing playoffs again, Tanev will be coveted (if healthy) by playoff contending teams.

Michael Stone: At some point the one-year deals Stone keeps signing will come to an end. Until that time arrives, the Flames could do a lot worse than having him as a depth defender on a cap friendly deal (750K). He’s a reliable sixth or seventh player for Calgary. He has an absolute rocket from the point that can beat goalies from distance. I describe Stone as an average defender who is long (6-foot, 209 pounds), a bumper physically, and willing to get in the lane to block shots. He competes and knows his role. He’s the kind of player who accepts that he won’t play every night. Stone played 48 games this season, averaged 13 minutes of ice time and was deployed at even strength. At times he contributed mop up duty on special teams.

Troy Stecher: Stecher scored some timely goals for the Flames down the stretch and was arguably one of their most effective defencemen offensively in the last three weeks of the year. Stecher is a pending UFA this summer. He leans bottom pairing two-way/mid-range transitional defenceman. I liked his compete and his overall energy in big games. He’s an affordable option to consider for Calgary next season, but understand there are going to be nights where his defending ranges.

Dennis Gilbert: Gilbert dressed for 23 games this season and was reliable in a depth role. He moves fine and has some physical bite to his game. Gilbert had 55 hits in those games, which projects to more than 190 hits over the course of a full season – that would have led the Flames. Gilbert leans two-way/shut-down defenceman. He’s an average seventh or eighth defenceman who hasn’t gained much traction in the NHL, but I trust him enough in the role going forward and he’s on an affordable contract for one more year ($762,500).

NHL GOALIES

Jacob Markstrom: His numbers fell off pretty dramatically from last season -- his .922 save percentage dropping to .892, his 2.22 GAA rising to 2.92 and his 37 wins falling to 23.

The easy argument can be made that Markstrom should shoulder much of the blame for the Flames not making playoffs. An extra save, here and there, could have easily resulted in the points the Flames required to make the dance.

I don’t have any excuses to make for Markstrom. The team gave up less shots on goal this season and they didn’t give up any more quality scoring chances than they have in the past. Markstrom simply needs to be better. What frustrated me most was his inability to start some games on time. The first five minutes, on any given night, resulted in a weak first-shot goal against or a turnover off his stick that ended up in his net. The veteran goalie cares and he knows he wasn’t good enough. His back half of the season certainly was better than the first half, but he needs to have the same kind of bounce back season next year that Connor Hellebuyck had for the Winnipeg Jets this year.

Dan Vladar: Vladar had an opportunity to take the net from Markstrom this season. He had moments where he gave the Flames the best chance at winning, but he really didn’t establish himself as someone who could go on a long run of success. His stats were low end of average for NHL standards. He’s still young (25) and could have more growth on the horizon, but the issue he has is Dustin Wolf is pushing for a spot on the roster.

YOUTH MOVEMENT

The Flames have some nice prospects on the precipice of making the jump to full-time NHL duty. It will be up to them to prepare this off-season and come ready to battle for a job, starting from rookie camp games onward into training camp.

Some of these names will be benefiting from time with the AHL Calgary Wranglers in the post-season. Learning to win at the pro level is an imperative part of the growth of the organization and the prospects.

Forward Jakob Pelletier deserves a longer rope next fall. He scored three goals and four assists with the Flames this season. Pelletier is a competitive spark-plug who can create offence and stir the drink with his tenacity.

Connor Zary is another prospect who will be facing more competition for a job with the arrival of the skilled Matt Coronato. Both prospects lean potential top six forwards in time. It will be a race to see who earns a full-time NHL job first. Coronato will be entering his first year at the pro level in the fall and will likely require some seasoning in the AHL. Zary has established himself as a scorer playing for the Wranglers this season, where he's posted 21 goals and 37 assists.

Forward Matt Phillips is due to become a Group 6 free agent on July 1. Not many players qualify for the status. The reason Phillips does is because he is 25 years old, has played more than three professional seasons, has an expiring contract, and has played less than 80 NHL games.

He’s been a prolific scorer at the AHL level, where he has 36 goals and 40 assists for the Wranglers this season. He’s a darting, small (5-foot-8, 160 pounds) forward who leans shooter more than playmaker. He’s a threat off the rush and on the flank on the power play. I would be surprised if an NHL team doesn’t give him a chance and sign him this summer.

Goaltender Dustin Wolf is ready for the NHL. He has done everything possible to earn an opportunity with the Flames in the fall. Wolf won top goalie honours in both of his final two seasons playing for Everett in the WHL, and he recently won the AHL's best goalie award for the second year in a row as well. The kid’s a winner. Here’s look at my scouting report for Wolf:

DRAFT CAPITAL

Here’s what the Flames have to work with over the next three drafts:

The upcoming draft class has excellent depth in the first round and the Flames find themselves currently picking in the middle of it (16^th). If that is their final landing spot following the draft lottery, they have options to make the selection or trade back to fill out some of their holes elsewhere on their grid.

For example: If Calgary has five players in the back half of the first round who they value, they could receive a call from a team looking to move up in the first-round. The odds of being able to select one of the five players they value anyway is strong, depending on how far back the trade offer puts them. They could end up acquiring an extra second-round pick in the process. When picking in the middle of the first round, call it the “muddy-middle”, it’s my belief you have to be flexible.

Of course, if the Flames absolutely have “their guy” at 16 – and he’s the best player available – make the pick if you believe that strongly in the prospect.

SUMMARY STRATEGY

I’m not going to hide behind hope. The Flames have some key decisions to make on the horizon, with several players entering the final year of their deals.

• First of all, I’m not extending Milan Lucic, Nick Ritchie, or Trevor Lewis.

• I would give this group 20, maybe 25 games to prove they are trending towards being not only a playoff team, but a top three team in their division.

• If they stumble out of the blocks, resulting in the group chasing playoffs like they did down the stretch this season, I would be looking to make significant changes that would benefit the organization beyond next season.

• The Flames can’t afford to hold on to Elias Lindholm, Tyler Toffoli, Mikael Backlund, Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov if they are chasing the standings. Asset management will be crucial, and some of these players will fetch a healthy return on the market.

• Conversely, if the team gets off to a strong start next season, I would go to Lindholm and Backlund first to gauge their appetite to sign extensions. If they balk at the idea I would go to ownership and present them with the reality that the group could win a round (hopefully more) in the playoffs, but would also be left holding two empty slots in our top nine the following season after the players decide to leave in the summer. Ultimately, ownership has to sign off on such a reality.

• It sounds like Toffoli is open to signing an extension, so he could end up being their “own rental” until a contract is negotiated, provided they are securely a playoff team. Otherwise he is a player who will need to be moved to acquire assets in return.

• Tanev isn’t getting any younger and his style of play has a runway that is approaching its end in the next couple years. He does lead by example, though. He’s a player I would approach with the understanding his salary wouldn’t be the $4.5M he makes now. If he takes a one-year extension I would offer him David Savard kind of dollars ($3.5M). If he is looking for two years, my offer would be something like $2.5M.

• I’m okay with offering Troy Stecher an extension. He’s coming off a one-year contract that paid him $1.25M, so I would offer him the same deal for next season.

• Dan Vladar has to be moved this off-season. Dustin Wolf is ready for the NHL and he’s earned the opportunity.

• Youth must be served in pockets of the lineup. I’m not giving away spots for free, but the exits of Lucic, Ritchie, and Lewis would open up competition from within. The Flames have gone down the road of being a hard and heavy team, and they would still have enough grit in the lineup. What they need is to get more speed and depth skill inserted into the group.

• I’m not sure a player like Matt Phillips is going to be an impactful offensive threat at the NHL level, but the team can’t afford to groom prospects only to see them leave in the same scenario Phillips is likely to this summer. He at least deserved more of a chance to see if he could maybe play to his identity at the NHL level.

• I’m don't have an appetite to sell hope next season. The group could rebound and become a top three club in the Pacific Division, but if they are a middling team hovering around a wild card spot again, it’s time to move out assets and retool for the future. Just making the playoffs, and keeping this band together, could result in a long stretch of misery if players decide to sign elsewhere as free agents a year from now.