NHL team tiers and expectations: Metropolitan Division

The Metro Division is an interesting mix of teams, including legit contenders at the top, followed by a number of teams that have a very wide range of possible outcomes.

As we break this grouping of teams into tiers, we see more than a few contenders or those really hoping to be. But many of those same teams have some flaw that could lead to this season going very wrong and bring about an identity crisis in the summer of 2024.

Once again, the teams within the same tier are not ranked, but ordered alphabetically.

TOP TIER: THE WINDOW TO WIN IS NOW OPEN

CAROLINA HURRICANES
Key additions: Michael Bunting, Dmitry Orlov, Tony DeAngelo
Key subtractions: Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny

Expectations: You could say the Canes have been a legit threat for five years in a row and, while they've won the first series they've played in each of those seasons, they've mostly been whooped to elimination, disappointingly swept by the Panthers in last year's conference final. So, what is it? Is there a fatal flaw about this roster, or if given enough swings will it eventually wind up a champion?

The Hurricanes have three straight regular-season division titles under their belt. They have perhaps the best blue-line in the league and were the best NHL team in limiting shots against last season. If there is a weakness it's been offence, but even that ranked middle of the league last season -- though the power play could use some work.

The expectations remain extraordinarily high for the Canes, but you can go only so many years anticipating a successful playoff run that instead ends in a whimper before the roster is called into question. They're good on paper and when looking through an analytical scope, but will it ever lead to a championship?

NEW JERSEY DEVILS
Key additions: Tyler Toffoli
Key subtractions: Tomas Tatar, Yegor Sharangovich, Miles Wood, Jesper Boqvist, MacKenzie Blackwood

Expectations: We could see the pay off for the Devils' rebuild coming after four straight years finishing seventh or eighth in their division, and being able to pick within the top five of the draft in four of six years. But the ferocity with which they took the NHL last season, jumping from 63 points all the way to 112 in a single bound, was shocking. And through it all, they still added to the core when they traded for -- and later signed -- Timo Meier.

But although it didn't take the Devils long to win their first playoff series of this era, the party ended in a five-game, Round 2 loss to Carolina. It was a reminder of the work and growing still to come, and who's to say the Devils can't leap again in 2023-24? They got here quicker than expected, but the Stanley Cup window is open now and most of the core players are signed long-term, just before the salary cap begins to shoot up. In time, that could prove to be a huge advantage.

NEW YORK RANGERS
Key additions: Blake Wheeler, Nick Bonino, Jonathan Quick
Key subtractions: Vladimir Tarasenko, Patrick Kane, Jaroslav Halak

Expectations: Following up a conference final appearance in 2022 with a Round 1 elimination against New Jersey in 2023, the Rangers have a solid mix of veterans and youth, backed by an all-world goalie who elevates any roster. New York lost both of its big trade deadline additions over the summer, but replaced the two goal scorers with the depth veteran knowhow of Nick Bonino, and the declining but still productive and impactful Blake Wheeler. Perhaps those will be better fits for a playoff roster.

There is room for improvement though, and the fact the rival Devils just eliminated the Rangers will make some uneasy about where this'll go from here. New York's defence can leave something to be desired and leans on Igor Shesterkin -- the Rangers had the lowest 5-on-5 expected goals for percentage of all playoff teams last season. That may be just fine with the way this team is built, but the Rangers need to get right back to proving it can win in the playoffs again.

SECOND TIER: THE MUSHY MIDDLE ... WITH POTENTIAL FOR HOW MUCH MORE?

NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Key additions: None
Key subtractions: Zach Parise

Expectations: Ask management and they'll probably expect the Islanders to be able to push back to the conference final again (or beyond) on the back of its defensive system and full roster buy-in. GM Lou Lamoriello's acquisition and signing of Bo Horvat last season bought into this roster even further and committed to working ahead without cap space left over.

The Islanders seem to have a wide range of possible outcomes, but likely won't have too extreme a finish in either a winning or losing direction. Sure, they could miss the playoffs for the second time in three seasons, but they have a certain baseline ability that probably means they won't fully bottom out. And, sure, the Islanders could get back to the playoffs again and might be able to grind out a series or two -- but who's really thinking they have Stanley Cup potential? The ultimate mushy middle team right now.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Key additions: Erik Karlsson, Reilly Smith, Lars Eller, Noel Acciari, Ryan Graves, Alex Nedeljkovic
Key subtractions: Jeff Petry, Jason Zucker, Brian Dumoulin, Mikael Granlund, Casey DeSmith

Expectations: Over the long term, Kyle Dubas' job will be to reorganize the Penguins in a post-Sidney Crosby world and limit how long it'll take the franchise to recover. But until that day, Dubas' task is to pry open the Stanley Cup window of a group that hasn't won a series in six years. Erik Karlsson's arrival certainly raises expectations again (or hope, at least) and Dubas did well to subtly add forward contributors with an eye on playoff hockey.

Goalie Tristan Jarry is certainly an X-factor here, as the 28-year-old has run hot and cold in recent seasons, though last year's struggle could be attributed to injuries that he says affected his play. The Penguins showed their belief in him by extending Jarry for five years over the summer, and it's imperative to start that pact on the right foot. Two years ago, Jarry went 34-18-6 with a .919 save percentage, so if he backstops this team at that level again, and if the key veterans can stay healthy, maybe this group can find another run in them. If it doesn't come together so neatly, though, the Penguins very well could miss the playoffs two years in a row.

WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Key additions: Max Pacioretty, Joel Edmundson
Key subtractions: Conor Sheary

Expectations: Similar to their rivals in Pittsburgh, the Capitals have been flat for a few years and missed out on the playoffs entirely in 2023. The biggest thing the fan base is looking forward to -- Alex Ovechkin's historical chase for Wayne Gretzky's goal record -- is still probably another season away. If Ovechkin scores 73 goals this season to pass No. 99, then the Caps are probably having a good year.

In the meantime, what can be salvaged on a team that was so disappointing last season but is clearly built to compete? Evgeny Kuznetsov underwhelmed and it's no secret the team wouldn't mind moving him. Nicklas Backstrom returned from hip-resurfacing surgery late last season, but may not be the same player again -- and his own GM even questioned the centre's ability to get all the way back. Max Pacioretty was brought in to add scoring punch later this season, but he's also had two Achilles tears in five months and will miss the start of the season.

You can see how it all could come together for the Capitals just as easily as you can see how it could all come apart.

THIRD TIER: BREAKOUT OR BUST?

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
Key additions: Adam Fantilli, Damon Severson, Ivan Provorov
Key subtractions: Jakub Voracek

Expectations: This will be the 10th full season with GM Jarmo Kekalainen at the helm and in that time he's overseen a few playoff appearances, in which the team pulled off two huge upsets. He's also overseen a retool the past few seasons, as Columbus has been in the draft lottery three years in a row. Last year, some progress was expected, but the Blue Jackets stalled to just a 59-point season.

This year's team will get a shot in the arm, with Zach Werenski returning from a shoulder injury that ended his season last November, and Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson were acquired to solidify that back end. Adam Fantilli's arrival via the draft is the boost at centre they needed and should complement Johnny Gaudreau and/or Patrik Laine. It's a big year for the team and its architect, who may be on the hot seat with another flop. And now new coach Mike Babcock is tasked with getting the most from this roster at a crucial point in its evolution as he works to repair his own reputation.

FOURTH TIER: OUT IN THE WILDERNESS

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
Key additions: Garnet Hathaway, Ryan Poehling, Marc Staal, Sean Walker, Cal Petersen
Key subtractions: Kevin Hayes, Tony DeAngelo, James van Riemsdyk, Ivan Provorov, Justin Braun

Expectations: Finally accepting a rebuild under new management, the Flyers have put off the inevitable for years and still feel caught between going all-in either way. There was some level of a sell-off this past summer, but so much still remains from a core that hasn't made the playoffs in the past three years.

How much further will Daniel Briere and Keith Jones steer this thing into a scorched-earth teardown, or will this remain a one-foot-in, one-foot-out retool on the fly? Until they make a hard turn one way or the other, the Flyers will be lost in the wilderness.