It's fun, in an armchair GM kind of way, to talk about possible off-season goalie movement and the implications they would have for next season.
Having a solid foundation in net is critical for teams to win and once again in these playoffs we're witnessing how a real game-changer can pull a team through. The Florida Panthers signed Sergei Bobrovsky to a $10 million AAV UFA contract to be their ace at the position, and though he hasn't fully met those expectations in five years, it's been worth it for the past couple months.
These days, though, having a solid foundation in the crease doesn't necessarily mean you have that one veteran ace. Gone are the days of a goalie getting 70-plus starts -- and you'd probably prefer to not go much over 60 anymore. Only one of the seven goalies who started at least 60 games this season made it beyond the first round of the playoffs.
Though Vegas faced plenty of questions about the goalie position at the start of the season without Robin Lehner, it's worked out pretty well. Logan Thompson got them through the start of the season and then Laurent Brossoit, Adin Hill and a dash of Jonathan Quick finished the quest for the Pacific title. Brossoit and now Hill have both been strong in the post-season. There are no aces there, but the options are strong.
As the off-season NHL rumour mill starts firing up, we've already heard several goalies mentioned. There are the usuals who've come up before: John Gibson, Thatcher Demko, Karel Vejmelka. And then there are some new, very big names: Connor Hellebuyck, Juuse Saros and Carter Hart.
But, given how the position has been reflected on the trade market in recent years, we have to ask: What is the goalie market?
There were some trades for starting netminders last off-season, but almost all of them were one team buying into the potential of a goalie taking on a greater role. The only "proven starter" really dealt last summer was Cam Talbot going to Ottawa -- but they wound up flipping the better goalie back to Minnesota in Filip Gustavsson.
Outside of that surprise, none of these returns were anything much to get excited about. A quick look back at all the notable goalie moves last summer:
• August 29: Adin Hill to Vegas for a 2024 fourth to San Jose.
• July 12: Cam Talbot to Ottawa for Filip Gustavsson to Minnesota.
• July 11: Matt Murray was salary dumped to Toronto along with two draft picks for future considerations to Ottawa.
• July 8: Vitek Vanecek and a second-rounder to New Jersey for a second- and third-rounder to Washington.
• July 8: Ville Husso to Detroit for a 2022 third-rounder to St. Louis.
• July 7: Alexandar Georgiev to Colorado for a 2023 third-rounder, fifth-rounder and 2024 third-rounder.
There have been precious few trades for proven, No. 1 netminders that brought back a notable return to the seller in the past few years. In fact, you have to go back to the July 28, 2021 trade that sent Darcy Kuemper to Colorado for first- and third-round picks and Conor Timmins for that type of deal. Kuemper had one year left on his contract.
Before that, you really have to go back to the June 20, 2016 trade that sent Frederik Andersen to Toronto to find a No. 1 goalie who was dealt for at least a first-rounder. The Ducks got a first and second in return for Andersen, who had played 43 and 54 games the previous two seasons.
Most recent goalie trades haven't been for the big stopper. They've generally been for the low-cost, upside netminder for marginal return. So maybe we should be asking: Is there a goalie market at all?
"There's a really interesting goalie market out there," Elliotte Friedman said on Thursday's Jeff Marek Show. "I think there's teams looking. I think people are talking about who's the goalie we want to go after and what's that going to look like?"
Perhaps the conditions are ripe for a goalie market renaissance this summer. We have a few motivated buyers who could see an opportunity to get their teams over the top, and a few others who might see this market as a chance to accelerate a rebuild. We have a few possible sellers, some game-changing talents available, but also a deep secondary trade market and a robust set of options in free agency, too.
Will we get that big goalie trade this summer, or will we see more bargain hunting for a potentially big pay off? Here's our overview of what the goalie market looks like in June.
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THE BIG NAMES WHO COULD BE AVAILABLE
Carter Hart, Philadelphia
Turning just 25 in August, Hart probably has the most years still ahead of him of those on this list and he's one of the few netminders who would have a real chance to be Team Canada's starter at a future best-on-best event. It's been a few years since Hart's really put up impressive individual numbers, but he's spent them behind a weakening Flyers team. Hart played in 55 games this past season and ranked 15th on MoneyPuck's Goals Saved Above Expected ranking. After the Flyers traded Ivan Provorov for mostly futures, they may be pivoting. Dealing Hart would surely indicated a real rebuild. He's out there now, but Friedman cautioned on Marek's show that it wasn't necessarily a "front-burner" move.
John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks
It's been years that Gibson has been involved in the rumour mill, but a Duck he remains. Gibson used to have the same sort of shine Hart has now as a mid-20s stud goalie. He used to have the stats to back it up, too, but those have been noticeably down for four years. But also like Hart, the team in front of Gibson has frittered away, so it's harder to tell what's team decline and what's goalie ageing. According to Natural Stat Trick, this past season no goalie faced more high danger shots per 60 minutes of play than Gibson, who was miles ahead of the next most-tested stopper. Could he shine again in better circumstances? That's the bet you're making with a Gibson acquisition. The added risk here is that he also comes with a $6.4 million cap hit that runs another four years, so if the old Gibson isn't there anymore, you'll have nowhere to hide as a GM.
Thatcher Demko, Vancouver
Demko started popping up in rumours at this year's trade deadline, with the Penguins and Kings linked as potential suitors. But Demko had missed a couple months with a groin injury, so it was risky to assume how he'd come back from that for this year's playoff push. Turns out he bounced back pretty well, going 10-4-2 with a .920 save percentage in March and April. That performance may force Canucks management to reconsider moving Demko at all, if they think he can get this team ahead sooner than later. His cap cost is manageable, his recent numbers have been strong, and he's single-handedly elevated a team in the playoffs before. Will all this bring some GM to make Vancouver the offer it can't refuse?
Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators
This would be a shocker of all shockers. The Preds neatly had game-breaking goalie at the ready to take over for Pekka Rinne when he retired and Saros has been one of the most relied upon netminders in the league since. Over the past two years, Saros has started more games and made more stops than any other NHL netminder and his unbelievable play down the stretch of the 2021-22 season carried the Predators into an unlikely playoff berth. His cap outlook is the stuff GMs dream of. Without him, the Predators could be treading water for a while. But Barry Trotz may chart his own new direction for this franchise if the offers are there.
"Nashville did have some conversations about him at the deadline, I think with the Kings," Friedman said on Monday's 32 Thoughts Podcast. "The way it's kind of going there I think it would take a big offer, but I think if something did come they would at least consider it."
Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
There is so much on the table in Winnipeg that has to be figured out this summer. As Ken Wiebe wrote in a Wednesday night column about Pierre-Luc Dubois' reported trade request: "Dubois isn’t likely to be the only guy on the move. Chances are high that all of goalie Connor Hellebuyck, centre Mark Scheifele and captain Blake Wheeler could be gone." The Jets don't want to go through a rebuild, but surely have to turn over some of this core. All four of those players could become UFAs next summer and the departure of any of them may leave the others questioning if they want to extend. It would be awfully rough for the Jets to start next season with an unsigned Hellebuyck in the crease and no promise of replacing him.
"It starts with Hellebuyck because I think he's the one you're going to get the most return for," Friedman said.
THE FREE AGENTS
The trade market is generating all the buzz -- understandably so -- but the cost to acquire any of the above netminders might be higher than any goalie trade we've seen in years. Rather than swing big, some teams might prefer to dip into free agency, where the cost has been more or less set at $5 million AAV for a No. 1 recently. Market forces could move that around a little, but this is the ballpark recent UFAs have signed. There are some appealing names on this list, which wouldn't cost a team anything other than cap space to acquire.
Frederik Andersen
Carolina's stopper for the past two years is one of the goalies who has signed a free agent deal in this climate, joining the Canes in 2021 for a $4.5 million AAV after he lost hold of Toronto's starting job. He had seasons of 52 and then 34 games with Carolina and while he missed out on a 2021 playoff appearance due to injury, he stepped in for a .927 save percentage in nine starts this post-season. In three losses to the Panthers, Andersen saved 92.1 per cent of the shots he faced. He'll be 34 in October and shouldn't be any team's only option in net. Best utilized as a tandem netminder, Andersen still has immense upside when he does play. Especially if you already have a young netminder in place, Andersen could be complement.
When Andersen needed rest or went down to injury, Raanta was the one who filled in the past two years, and he was excellent in that role. With .912 and .910 save percentages the past two years, Raanta also excelled in last year's playoffs, which really put him on the map. But, he's only ever played in more than 30 regular season games twice in his career (2017-18 and 2019-20) and is 34 years old. Raanta should at least get good usage as a backup somewhere, if not as a split-starter, if the Canes don't bring him back. But he's not a big minute ace.
Jarry had been on a pretty good value contract for the Penguins the past three years with a $3.5 million AAV that mostly undershot his on ice value. But he wasn't exactly consistent. Even if you go back one year before that three-year deal kicked in, you'll see Jarry's save percentage bob from .921 to .909 to .919 and back to .909 again the last four years. In 2021-22 he was one of the top reasons why Pittsburgh extended its playoff streak to 16 seasons. This year, he was confusingly one of the reasons why they ended that streak. After the curtain closed, Jarry disclosed that he had been dealing with several injuries all season, making it difficult to practice and find consistency. So, perhaps in free agency, there's still another value deal to be had for someone looking the 28-year-old's way. However, his age and performance could drive up his cost and he could be seeking strong term this time, too.
Stepped aside for countryman Ilya Sorokin when it was time, but Varlamov still saw plenty of action in the backup role with 54 starts total the past two seasons. He's had above league average save percentages throughout his tenure with the Islanders, too, and really hasn't had that bad season yet at 35 years old. Age will be a factor on his next deal, but he was one of the best backups in the league this past season.
Adin Hill/Laurent Brossoit
Vegas may end up keeping one of these guys -- there's no telling what the Golden Knights will do. But with Logan Thompson still making just $766,667 against the cap another two seasons, there's probably not room for both of these players on the roster. Neither Hill, 27, nor Brossoit, 30, have a track record of anything but being backups in the NHL, though it should be noted Hill's career save percentage at this level is .914 in 114 games. Brossoit has been far more hot and cold in his 125 career games and may continue on as a backup. But through this season and with his playoff performance, Hill is making an interesting case to be considered for more opportunity. He played 27 regular season games this season, a new career high.
Traded from Columbus to the Los Angeles Kings this trade deadline with Vladislav Gavrikov, Korpisalo's .915 save percentage ranked tied for 11th among all netminders who played at least 30 games this season. This, however, followed back-to-back seasons in which he finished well under .900 and the Blue Jackets put their money on other goalies. In the playoffs against Edmonton, he had an .892 save percentage and allowed 14 goals against in the last three losses. The Kings are a goalie needy team this off-season, but may move on from Korpisalo for someone more historically reliable.
SO WHO ARE THE BUYERS?
There are clearly a lot of goalie names who are available in free agency, or who could be available in the right trade. But which teams are looking to acquire a netminder?
Montreal Canadiens
They have Jake Allen, yes, but GM Kent Hughes is beginning to turn his gaze towards the immediate future and how to get this roster to its next stage. Allen has two years remaining on his contract and could either be a fine backup/tandem goalie or even a potential candidate to flip back if the Habs address the position through trade.
Ottawa Senators
Well they have to do something. Talbot is a UFA they won't be bringing back. Anton Forsberg is in the picture and he makes $2.75 million for another two seasons after his 2022-23 ended early with an MCL injury. But the Senators will be seeking out any opportunity to keep pushing ahead after making big moves for Alex DeBrincat last summer and Jakob Chychrun in-season. Goalie could be next to solve.
Buffalo Sabres
Devon Levi was sensational in seven games after departing Northeastern University and so the goalie of the future is also the goalie of the here-and-now. They also have 24-year-old Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen who they've been patient developing since selecting him in the second round of the 2017 draft. Will Buffalo run with this young 1-2 punch (with maybe a dash of Eric Comrie) or perhaps consider a more proven veteran to take some of these starts? Buffalo only barely missed the playoffs this past season and will be looking to make that push in for 2024. So the question is: do they set themselves up best to do that with a young duo, or do they need the vet presence?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Just about anything could be on the table in Toronto, but as talk builds that coach Sheldon Keefe could return and time runs out to trade any of the Core Four before no-trade clauses kick in, we wonder how exactly new GM Brad Treliving may bring about change. We know that Joseph Woll will likely be a part of this moving forward, but who will the other goalie be? Matt Murray can't stay healthy and could be salary dumped, and Ilya Samsonov is an RFA in need of an extension. Is it as simple as re-signing him and running back the same tandem in net, or will Treliving look for a more established upgrade at the position and use Samsonov in trade to help get it?
New Jersey Devils
The Devils made one of those low cost acquisitions last summer in picking up Vanecek from Washington and he met the challenge in Year 1 with a .911 save percentage and played 52 games en route to New Jersey's second place finish in the Metro. His playoffs left something to be desired, though, and 23-year-old Akira Schmid was actually the better post-season performer. New Jersey's window to win is wide open now, and while they do have more important (and big) contracts to resolve with Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier, upgrading the goaltending might once again be a target area for GM Tom Fitzgerald.
San Jose Sharks
With James Reimer set to become a UFA on July 1, the Sharks are left with Kaapo Kahkonen as their only NHL goalie signed for 2023-24. The Sharks are different to some other teams on this list in that they are further away from challenging, still finding their way through a rebuild with GM Mike Grier. But, to give the team a chance, they may seek to address the position in some way. The Sharks might not be a player for the biggest names at the position, but they'll be active in some way.
Pittsburgh Penguins
We talked about Jarry earlier and there's still a shot he's Pittsburgh's goalie heading into next season, but he's a UFA on July 1, so there's a contract to figure out here first. "I heard Jarry, when they were talking during the season, wanted some term like 5-6 years. So I don't know where that's going to go," Friedman said on Monday's podcast. In Toronto, GM Kyle Dubas went the low-cost, upside route a few times when he acquired then-backup Jack Campbell, and then acquired Samsonov in free agency after the Caps let him walk. In Pittsburgh, where the end is nearing for the Crosby-Malkin-Letang core and Dubas' priority will be to revive their Cup chances, will he instead go big at the position this time?
Los Angeles Kings
At the most recent trade deadline, GM Rob Blake made one trade to address two needs: he got Gavrikov for the defensive defenceman, and Korpisalo to take over in net. Korpisalo mostly did a good job, but wasn't able to rise to the occasion in a tough first round matchup against the Oilers. Now a UFA, Korpisalo doesn't have a long, proven track record to lean on, so Blake may focus on bringing in that missing element. The Kings are set up pretty well to compete in the coming years, but must solidify themselves in the crease. Definitely one of the teams to watch closest here.
Carolina Hurricanes
This could be simple if they choose to re-sign one of Andersen or Raanta, but if both leave via free agency then the Hurricanes will have to bring in someone else to share the crease (or lead it) with Pyotr Kochetkov. The Metro winners are having to hold off the Devils and Rangers (who have one of the best goalies in the world) for supremacy within the division and both of those teams have offences that could rip apart opponents that struggle in net. So, whether it's a simple re-sign or something else, the Canes will have to address the position in the coming weeks.
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