EDMONTON — When we did our quarter-season report card at the end of November, we handed out three D’s and an F to an Edmonton Oilers team that fell flat on its face coming out of the gates in the 2023-24 season.
Oh boy, have they turned that start around, going 20-3 since Nov. 24.
No team in the National Hockey League has had such a polar opposite Q2 compared to Q1, and today the Oilers would get nothing but A-pluses on what they’ve done in December and January.
So let’s lump them together and take a look at the whole picture. Edmonton at Game 41 — it’s a much prettier picture than what it was before.
KEY STATS
Record: 25-15-1 (3rd in Pacific Division, 12th in NHL)
Goals per game: 3.51 (5th in NHL)
Goals-against per game: 2.95 (12th in NHL)
Power play: 25.8% (7th in NHL)
Penalty Kill: 81.8% (10th in NHL)
BEST SURPRISE
Undoubtedly, the best surprise is not just that the Oilers flexed their muscles after a 5-12-1 start that had us wondering what kind of team they truly were, it’s how authoritative that flex has been.
After those first 18 games, Edmonton sat in 30th place going into their game at Washington. Then the turnaround began, under new head coach Kris Knoblauch.
Edmonton dusted the Capitals 5-0 and have been the best team in the NHL ever since, going 20-3-0 (.870) to climb into 12th place overall, and in Game 41 Edmonton jumped past Los Angeles and into third spot in the Pacific Division.
And they haven’t just done it on the coattails of the game’s two most dangerous scorers over the past six or seven seasons. Since Nov. 24, Edmonton ranks first in goals per game (3.96), but also ranks second behind Winnipeg in goals allowed per game (2.13).
Their five-on-five game is stout, ranked first in expected goals, second in expected goals against, and third in shots for percentage, per NaturalStatTrick.
In goal, Stuart Skinner — heavily questioned prior to Nov. 24 — leads the NHL with 16 wins since that date. Among starters since Nov. 24, Skinner has the NHL’s third best save percentage (.930), and second best GAA (1.88).
We suspected the Oilers could come back. But to have made this much progress by the season’s halfway point?
Huge, huge surprise.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT
Clearly, the 2-9-1 start that got Jay Woodcroft fired and left the Oilers digging out of a massive hole is the biggest disappointment. But since they’ve corrected that, we’ll move on to a lasting disappointment: the big free agent signing last summer, Connor Brown.
We pledged to give Brown, who is coming off an ACL injury that occurred in the fourth game of the 2022-23 season, until the halfway point of the season before passing judgement. Well, we’re here, and Brown has no goals, a measly three assists, and has sunk to fourth line right wing.
When Dylan Holloway returns, he may find himself in the press box.
Brown was sold last summer as “Zach Hyman Lite,” but there are no visible comparisons between the two players that we can discern. He’s been a good penalty killer, but with $3.25 million of Brown’s $4 million salary coming off next season’s cap as a bonus overage, it’s far, far too much to pay for a PK specialist.
Brown was signed to be a second line right-winger. He has not performed nearly well enough to hold down that post. So far, that free agent contract is a flop.
Brown can salvage this signing with a decent second half, and if he can become a contributor to a long playoff run. There are zero signs, however, that is in the offing.
Brown has been a ghost through the first 41 games. A gamble by GM Ken Holland that has not paid off.
BIG QUESTION FOR THE SECOND HALF
Our question for the second quarter was for the Oilers to play “functional team defence.” Check — they’ve allowed two goals or less in 10 straight games heading onto the second half — tying a team record set in 2002.
So the next question would be… What questions can you have for a team that’s carrying a .622 points percentage into Game No. 42?
Can Brown come around?
Can Holloway arrive, become a valuable third-line left-winger and say healthy between now and the playoffs?
Can Holland find the third-line centre or second-line right winger he needs prior to the March 8 Trade Deadline? What else can the Oilers GM do to take this team to a Stanley Cup — a backup goalie, an extra defenceman or some size on the fourth line?
In a cap system, some area of the team is going to have to be left wanting. There’s just no way Holland can scratch those three itches at the deadline, with minimal cap space and a lack of assets.
But on the other hand, whatever he can add will make an already formidable team even better.
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