EDMONTON — There are two conversations at play when it comes to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the Edmonton Oilers.
The first one is obvious: Should the Oilers sign the pending unrestricted free agent before the Seattle Kraken’s exclusive UFA negotiating window that opens on July 18, three days before the expansion draft?
But secondly, and far more complex is this question: If the Oilers don’t sign Nugent-Hopkins — a top six forward who is a primary penalty killer and plays on the top power play unit — what is their plan to replace him?
At the end of this season, Nugent-Hopkins will complete a seven-year, $42 million contract earned largely off his status as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft. A decade later, the economy has changed drastically, and a 28-year-old Nugent-Hopkins is at best the third-best forward on the Oilers roster. He is viewed as a player who compliments others rather than a driver, according to the handful of NHL scouts we spoke with.
“I think he’s a complimentary player,” a mid-western based pro scout said. “He can play with [Leon] Draisaitl and [Connor] McDavid, but he doesn’t make the line go. He doesn’t drive a line, but put him with two good players and he contributes.”
An Eastern Canadian scout agrees: “I like the player. He’s not perfect, but he’s better than he’s given credit for. You wish he had a little more drive. He doesn’t drive the bus, but he can play with anyone and make plays.”
The question becomes, what is that player worth?
Nearly all of Nugent-Hopkins’ comparables — players like Sean Monahan, Jonathan Marchessault and Vladimir Tarasenko when it comes to points per game; players like Carl Soderberg, Logan Couture and Frans Nielsen when it comes to career face-off percentage; players like Andrei Svechnikov, Brock Nelson and Anders Lee when it comes to points per 60 — are currently on contracts that were negotiated in the old economy.
Normally, Nugent-Hopkins’ $6 million cap hit would grow to $7 million in a new deal. But with the salary cap stagnant, and the player a decade into a career that has seen him slot into a lesser role than his No. 1 overall draft status would have suggested, what should Oilers general manager Ken Holland be paying for this player?
“Could you sign a Mike Hoffman and [Philip] Danault, for that $6-7 million?” asked a third scout. “If Nugent-Hopkins says he’ll sign for $5 million, that’s different. If he commands $6-7 million, I’m looking around.”
“The issue is the term,” said the second scout. “Keep him between $5-6 million, but I wouldn’t go more than three years. I like him until 31, but not 33 or 34.”
He’s bang on. Term will the haggling point for Holland and agent Rick Vallette. That last scout used comparables Mikael Granlund (Nashville) and Alex Wennberg as two players who could replace Nugent-Hopkins for the same money.
“He is not irreplaceable,” the scout said. “The two big boys, they are. But Nugent-Hopkins? If you’re Kenny, would you rather have two $3 million wingers, or one $6 centre? And if [Ryan] McLeod is your third line centre moving forward, then why do you need Nugent-Hopkins?
“Clearly, Edmonton’s needs are on the wing. That’s where they should be spending their money.”
Nugent-Hopkins brings value as a forward who can move in and out of the centre position, meaning he can bolster a line by playing left wing next to a McDavid or Draisaitl, fitting in seamlessly next to a high-end centre, or he can centre the second line, freeing the coach up to play his two superstars on the same line.
This season has been a disaster for Nugent-Hopkins production-wise. He’s the worst face-off man on the team at 44.7 per cent, and has seen his points per game fall to a three-year low at 0.69. He averages just shy of 21 minutes per game in ice time and has spent most of that on the flank of a superstar centre this season, yet has just 14 even strength points all year.
But throughout his career he’s been 0.73 PPG guy who plays 20 minutes per night, and scores nearly 65 per cent of his points at even strength. And he touches many parts of the game.
“It’s not about the points. It’s about everything he does for you,” said a scout in Central Alberta, who has watched Nugent-Hopkins since his junior days in Red Deer. “The penalty killing, the consistency, his work ethic… What he brings, go and try and find it.”
But who is Holland paying? A centre? Or a left winger?
“He can play ‘em, both, and he’s not going to hurt you at either position,” the scout said. “He takes draws, he kills penalties, he can score if you give him a chance, and he can make plays. I love the guy.”
One more scout, who works out of the Pacific time zone, touted Nugent-Hopkins for Seattle.
“How long has he been in Edmonton? Ten years,” he asked. “No negative body language or comments from the guy. He plays wherever, doesn’t complain. Seems pretty level headed, basically injury free…
“If I’m Seattle, and he looks like he can easily play for five or six more years — because he can skate — you’ve gotta build your team down the middle. What if we sign RNH and we have a natural centre?”
Our synopsis: It’s up to Nugent-Hopkins whether he remains an Oiler.
Holland won’t sign him to a seven- or eight-year deal — we bet five tops — and he may not get a raise above $6 million.
Nugent-Hopkins has suffered through a lean decade, and now has a chance to stay with the team that drafted him just as it enters a period of Stanley Cup contention.
If he’ll take a four-year, $25 million deal, he can be part of it.
If he wants significantly more term or money, he can go out in the marketplace and see if some other team sees him as a $6 million-plus player.
