On the Maple Leafs, Lightning and weathering the Stanley Cup Playoff storm

Over the three playoff seasons prior to this one, the Tampa Bay Lightning lost 21 playoff games. They trailed in multiple series, including one against the Toronto Maple Leafs last year before they won Game 6 in overtime, and then Game 7 by a single goal. The season prior to that they again managed a one-goal Game 7 victory (en route to winning the Stanley Cup), overtaking the New York Islanders who had a series lead on the Lightning at one point.

Along their playoff run to three consecutive conference championships and two Stanley Cups from 2020-2022, the Lightning lost in overtime eight different times, two of which came in double overtime. They battled back from being down 2-0 in the conference finals, they lost a Cup Final game 7-0 (before winning 6-2), and yes, they even lost a game 5-0 to the Leafs in last year's aforementioned first round matchup.

It hasn't always gone smoothly for Tampa Bay during this run. They got their hearts broken, but they stuck with it and the results came. They made adjustments when things didn’t work. They didn’t panic.

As much as the Stanley Cup playoffs make it feel like every second matters, and stretches of bad play can make a team and fan base feel hopeless, all the above should serve as a reminder that it’s hard, and you have to be accepting of a bend-but-don’t-break mentality.

I bring this up in the wake of the Toronto Maple Leafs taking two overtime wins in Tampa Bay, a sentence which I’ve seen written in other places as “stolen two overtime wins". Certainly the Leafs weren’t the better team in Game 3, and in Game 4 it was probably a pick ‘em outcome.

To wit, the website “MoneyPuck” shows that with over 500 simulations of the same game (same shots and expected goals and all the rest) Game 4 was basically a coin toss:

So while the Lightning are unlikely to go away easily, it’s also a reminder for the Leafs that any real playoff success isn’t going to come without runs of play that just don't go your way. How Game 3 and 4 played out were a reminder that by avoiding the dreaded “big mistakes,” you can hang around in games where you aren’t the better team.

When you get to the post-season, fans have to somewhat change how they evaluate their team's performance. The big point for me: the other team gets to play, too.

You’re down to the best 16 teams in the NHL, which means you’re going to face a good team with good players no matter who you draw, and given how difficult it is to maintain possession in hockey, they’re going to get the puck sometimes. If you’re a Leafs fan watching this first round series, you may note that Hart winner Nikita Kucherov is still on the other side and is only in his late-20s, as deadly as ever. Victor Hedman has been a force the past couple games, and they’ve got other great players from Steven Stamkos to 50-goal-scorer Brayden Point to Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vasilevskiy, who you’d still never bet against.

Those guys all get to play, too.

During my two seasons as a video coach for the Toronto Marlies, we played in five playoff series. The amount of little tweaks you make over that stretch of playoff hockey is remarkable. Your lines change with injury, performance, and depend on what your opponent does.

You’ve got to try some things when you’re not having success, and not everything you try will work. We tweaked our forecheck, our breakout, and even the way we forechecked in the neutral zone, to varying results.

When it went bad, the trick was not to wait for “a more appropriate sample size.” You’ve got to read the early results and react to those as best you can, because you don’t have a ton of time to play around.

But it's not as though you don't have any time at all either – that’s the balance. You can be accepting of some small stretches where you aren’t the better team while you learn your small sample lessons. You just can’t get buried for too long.

For all the talk these days about “process” in sports, at this time of year it’s all about the results, and so the key is finding your way through when you’re not controlling the action. Things like “expected goals” aren’t going to help us as much when the way teams play will quickly change.

And so as teams get deeper into this thing, there will be moments when a real Cup contender seems like they’re in trouble. The Colorado Avalanche are down 3-2 in their series to Seattle. The New York Rangers just blew two games on home ice. The Edmonton Oilers were trailing 2-1 in their series to Los Angeles and then went to overtime in Game 4. Those are all pretty good teams who’ve been in tough spots already, and I’d be stunned if they’re all done after Round 1.

The teams that have meaningful success will be the ones that can stand in there and weather the storm when the pendulum swings their opponent's way. They’ll be the ones that keep the pedal down despite disheartening results.

And more than anything, they’ll be the teams that accept the lineup on the other side of the ice has great players, and they get to play, too.