One question for each member of Maple Leafs’ Core Four as 2023-24 begins

After an off-season of upheaval in Toronto — a dramatic front-office departure, the start of a new regime, a summer that saw the club’s depth reshaped in free-agency — a new Maple Leafs season begins soon.

For all the change that’s come on the lineup’s fringes or in the front office, it’s the lack of change at the heart of this Maple Leafs project that figures to have the greatest impact on how Toronto’s season plays out. 

Gone are former GM Kyle Dubas, deadline veterans Ryan O’Reilly and Luke Schenn, polarizing forwards Michael Bunting and Alex Kerfoot, and oft-maligned defender Justin Holl. In are a new cast of characters — the unorthodox Tyler Bertuzzi, the once-elite John Klingberg, a bit of depth energy in Max Domi and Ryan Reaves, some young promise in Fraser Minten.

And at the centre of all that tumult, still, is Toronto’s Core Four: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares.

Even after a season that brought signs of progress but ultimately more disappointment, even after calls for the Maple Leafs brass to follow the lead of the team that ousted them in the post-season — to swing a Huberdeau-for-Tkachuk-esque blockbuster — the Core Four remains intact heading into 2023-24, new GM Brad Treliving making clear from the beginning of his tenure that he believes in the leading quartet.

Now, that belief will be put to the test.

It’s a pivotal year for each member of that core forward group. Matthews looks to return to the league’s elite before taking over as the highest-paid player in the game a year from now; Marner, looking to take the next step in his ascent, is a year away from his own bout with extension chaos; Nylander is there now, unsigned beyond the final game of 2023-24, negotiations set to become more complicated as the season gets underway; while Tavares plays out the second-last year of his own deal, working to justify his place as the second-highest-paid player on the team.

That being the case, a day away from the Maple Leafs taking the ice for Game 1 of the new season, here’s one question facing each member of the Core Four in 2023-24.

Auston Matthews: Can he reassert himself as one of the game’s most dominant scorers?

Rewind back to a year ago, and Matthews was flying high. He’d snagged two straight Rocket Richard trophies, added an MVP nod to his trophy case too — besting the otherworldly Connor McDavid for the Hart — and seemingly established himself as the new premier goal-scorer in the game with a 60-goal effort that put him in rare company.

Then came 2022-23 — a knee injury that sidelined Matthews for a time, a hand injury that limited his ability to unleash his lethal shot, a step back offensively as the rest of the game’s elite stepped forward, McDavid and David Pastrnak both besting his 60-goal performance the very next year.

Now, Matthews comes into the new season back at full health, fresh off a summer of focused work, with a talented new winger riding shotgun on his line. For the Maple Leafs to take a step forward in 2023-24, their leading man reasserting his dominance as one of the league’s very best, rediscovering the swagger that allowed him to wreak havoc upon the league during that MVP season, would go a long way.

That Matthews’ "down year" still yielded a 40-goal spot and 85 points, better numbers than a fair few well-established talents in the game, shows what the hockey world believes he’s capable of. A year before he takes on the added scrutiny of being the league’s highest-paid player — when his four-year, $13.25-million-AAV deal kicks in — the 2023-24 season offers a chance to show why he remains among the top five talents in the sport.

Such a return to the upper echelon would be no surprise to his head coach, Sheldon Keefe, who knows well No. 34’s focus on continuing to raise his level.

“I think it’s just a drive to be the best,” Keefe said of Matthews, early in the club’s slate of pre-season preparations. “He’s got great athletic ability, obviously, and part of that is the ability to improve — to have something to focus on, work on it through the summer, and apply it in-season. From what I’ve seen over the years, he’s been able to do that as good or better than anybody I’ve ever worked with. If you give him something, or he himself just feels something that he wants to improve upon, he focuses on it and works on it through the summer. 

“He’s had a good off-season in terms of health, and hasn’t been disrupted like some other (off-seasons) have the last couple of years. Certainly, his ability to continue to improve — and most importantly, the desire to improve and not just settle — is a great asset for him.”

Mitch Marner: Can he take the next step in his ascent and reach the Selke summit?

For all the eyeballs watching Marner’s every move, all the attention heaped upon the Maple Leafs premier playmaker, No. 16’s long played sidekick to his club’s marquee centremen. A half-decade ago, it was Tavares at centre-stage, the veteran coming home and making waves, taking over the "C" as Toronto’s stoic leader. Then came Matthews’ takeover, the young sniper’s numbers spiking, his totals rewriting club records, his name being engraved on historic trophies.

Last season, though, Marner proved he’s far more than the high-flying setup man for the pivots to his left. 

A career season, after a steady ascent in the four prior, established the 26-year-old as the engine that makes this Maple Leafs team run, the point that connects their offensive dominance and oft-overlooked defensive steadiness. And yet, for all of that progress, there still seems another level within reach for Marner.

Look back over the past half-decade of his career, and the winger has walked the line between being a prolific enough scorer to dabble in the Art Ross race, and a responsible enough two-way presence to upend the Selke debate.

Case in point, over the past five seasons, only four players in the league have amassed more points than Marner’s 424: Connor McDavid (594), Leon Draisaitl (537), Nathan MacKinnon (456) and Artemi Panarin (428). And on the other side of the sheet, 2022-23 marked the winger’s emergence in the upper echelon of defensive forwards, Marner finishing as a finalist for the Selke for the first time.

What does progress look like for Marner in 2024? What would be the mark of the winger taking another step toward his ceiling, putting himself in better position to help his city live its Stanley Cup dreams?

Maybe it’s finding the next level offensively, finally cracking the century mark after two straight seasons of finishing just short, pushing to join the group that will inevitably finish just below McDavid in the Art Ross race. Or maybe it’s continuing to hone his defensive prowess, proving he is truly one of the game’s top two-way talents, and claiming the Selke now that Bergeron’s reign has ended.

For his part, all focus seems to be on the latter.

“I don’t think (about) the scoring race. I mean, it would be great to win that, but the one that I always really set my mind on and set a goal on is the Selke,” Marner said in 2020. “I think that one is something that I always wanted my name to be a part of. That one has a lot of special players (connected to) it, that do a lot on both ends of the ice.”

There’s no denying the effort Marner’s since put into turning himself into that type of special player — so responsible is the winger defensively at this point, his coach was mulling giving him shifts as a blue-liner last season. Now, a new season brings a new opportunity to prove just how good he can be in that 200-foot role.

William Nylander: Will he re-sign or play himself out of a new contract with the Maple Leafs?

Much of the Maple Leafs’ efforts to pin down their opening-night lineup, much of their shuffling of training-camp pieces, has centred around Nylander.

Fresh off back-to-back career years that saw the dynamic talent begin to make good on his immense potential — a 34-goal, 80-point effort in 2021-22 followed by a 40-goal, 87-point line last season — all focus has shifted to predicting just how high Nylander can reach. From a pure skill perspective, the 27-year-old’s has long seemed elite, his inconsistency and laid-back approach seemingly the only things standing in the way of greatness. Pushed by Keefe since the coach made the move from the Marlies to the big club, Nylander has begun to show on a regular basis what once came out only in glimpses.

Unfortunately for Treliving, that emergence came right on the cusp of Nylander’s team-friendly six-year, $6.96-million-AAV deal running out. 

Set to hit unrestricted free agency after this season, Nylander and the Maple Leafs head into a season with a ticking clock. Either Treliving reaches an agreement with Nylander’s agent Lewis Gross (though negotiations seem to be at a standstill), or he risks losing the talented winger for nothing (as he did a year ago with another star UFA-to-be, Johnny Gaudreau — also repped by Gross), or he’s forced to move Nylander at the deadline.

After a season that saw the smooth-skating winger put up bona fide numbers, there’s little doubt the club would prefer to keep Nylander in the fold. The issue, though, is how to fit the hefty raise he’s sure to get into a cap picture that already includes Marner and Tavares around the $11-million mark for the next two years, with Matthews there next year and even higher for the four years beyond that.

The question of how exactly Nylander fits into that long-term picture, of whether it makes sense to bring him back and continue pushing ahead with this top-heavy arrangement, seemingly factored into the decision to move No. 88 to centre for much of training camp. It was an idea that came from Treliving, according to Keefe, the thinking perhaps being that bringing Nylander back at the number he’ll command makes more sense if it gives the club three elite centremen down the middle.

“Tre and I talked a lot this summer (about it),” Keefe said at the start of camp. “Tre is coming in with a fresh set of eyes, and a fresh set of ideas. It’s something that he presented.”

The surprise emergence of young Fraser Minten, a natural centreman, has allowed Keefe to move Nylander back to the wing for the time being. But while the rookie is set to begin the season with the big club, it remains to be seen whether he’ll stick for the year or get a nine-game go-around before returning to his WHL club, the latter scenario likely moving Nylander back to the 3C role.

Either way, all eyes will be on how Nylander performs over the early months of the season — how essential he proves to be to the Maple Leafs’ cause, how far he potentially drives up his price.

“I think Willy can do whatever he puts his mind to. He’s that good,” Keefe said. “He’s that powerful, he’s that strong. At times, I push William hard because I really believe in his ability, I believe he can accomplish more. I know he wants to accomplish great things. 

“Sometimes we aren’t on the same page because I’m pushing and challenging him, (but) there is common ground there. He wants to be great.”

John Tavares: Can he remain effective without another member of the core alongside him?

It’s been a tumultuous couple seasons for the Maple Leafs captain. After starting his hometown tenure with a statement 47-goal, 88-point effort in blue and white, Father Time has begun to come for the former Hart Trophy finalist as he’s reached the back half of the seven-year, $77-million deal he inked back in 2018.

For all the criticism that’s been directed at the 33-year-old over the past couple years, the 2022-23 season was something of a resurgent one for Tavares, the captain quietly putting together his second-best year as a Maple Leaf, with 36 goals and 80 points on the season. That said, nearly half of those points came on the power play, with Tavares flanked by All-Star talent in all directions. Only a handful came without one of Matthews, Marner or Nylander factoring in on the scoresheet.

Which makes the question of where Nylander plays all the more important for No. 91.

Critiqued of late, particularly in the post-season, for slowing down and losing some of the effectiveness he long showed as one of the game’s top pivots, Tavares’ still-elite offensive awareness has allowed him to continue stacking points when paired with the likes of Marner or Nylander on his wing, or when chipping in as part of the club’s star-studded power-play group.

With Nylander centring his own line in the early days of camp, though, and Marner remaining up top with Matthews, Tavares found himself in between young Matthew Knies and the since-traded Sam Lafferty. Given how he’s fared as the driving force on a line over the past couple years, it’s worth wondering what such an arrangement would mean for Tavares’ effectiveness, whether he’d be able to continue the form he showed last season, or find himself limited.

If a stretch on his own did wind up leaving Tavares struggling, what would the next move be? A shift to the wing has been discussed. But what would it mean for the club to have to move the captain into a spot on the wing in the top six, to have to rearrange pieces to find ways for him to remain effective, a player carrying the eighth-highest cap hit in the league?

For now, Minten’s breakout has put that question on ice, as Nylander’s returned to Tavares’ wing and the club’s rookie 3C seems to have established some promising chemistry with young Knies. But as has been mentioned, Minten’s place with the big club is far from cemented, and given the chemistry Nylander and Domi showed together when the former was lining up in the middle during camp, that arrangement doesn’t seem fully off the table.

“John is all about the team. He wants to see the team do well,” Keefe said early in the pre-season, about Tavares potentially being separated from the rest of the Core Four this season. “When we presented him with a scenario we were building, he was all for it and all about it. We’ll continue to evaluate John’s situation, John’s line, the other lines. That’s a daily discussion that we’ll have.

“But John, he’s all-in. Whatever we believe will help the team, he’s going to do whatever he can to make it to work, whether that’s centre, wing, no matter who his linemates are. John, at this point in his career, more than any other, it’s all about winning.”

All of these questions, of course, are secondary to the big one — the one that’s been there all along, the one that looms over the blue and white like a storm always on the cusp of breaking: 

Is this the year the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup?

There’s little reason to believe, based on their off-season, that the club’s any closer to a "Yes" than they already were. Change has come here and there, and a new manager’s vision is being implemented. But by and large, with the core intact, this is the Maple Leafs going again, running it back, seeing if another attempt to break through the wall eventually makes it give way. We’ll see.

It all begins Wednesday night.