Poker on Ice: Breaking down Kucherov’s subtle brilliance without the puck

By “give-a-crap” measures, NHL players can broadly be divided into three groups based on appearances: those who look like they’re trying, those who barely look like they’re trying, and Nikita Kucherov.

If you’ve seen the latter play for more than a few minutes, you know what I’m talking about. Kucherov’s perceived lack of interest at times is as undeniable as his skill. It’s par for the course to see him pull an extended disappearing act, only to change the complexion or outcome of a game by whipping some absurd play out of his bag of tricks at Tampa’s convenience.

Since 2020, virtually half (44) of Kucherov’s 92 playoff points have been derived from game-tying, go-ahead, or game-winning goals. Those 92 points amount to contributions approaching half (43.2 per cent) of his team’s total goals over that span.

Nonetheless, it’s easy to look at the star winger’s demeanour and jump to conclusions about his work ethic and level of care. But doing so signals a failure to recognize the site (or lack thereof, if puns are your thing) of most of his heavy lifting: his brain.

Constantly churning and processing information at a rapid pace, Kucherov’s mind is something of a hockey world wonder. Lightning coach Jon Cooper offered the following summary prior to night one of this year’s playoffs:

Further to Cooper’s point, we see the highlight-reel plays Kucherov makes with possession, but what we often miss are the sneaky smart moves that precede – and ultimately set the table for – those plays.

Simply put, we miss how elite he is at creating advantages for his team before he even touches the puck.

If you watch Kucherov – and I mean really watch him – it’s like he’s playing poker on the ice. He’s mastered the art of bluffing and knows how to manipulate the positioning of opponents in a way that suits him.

To understand how exactly his mind works, we’ll walk through three subtle pre-possession plays from No. 86 that were instrumental in the development of key Lightning goals this postseason. While the deception technique deployed on each varies, they’re all rooted in proactive problem-solving.

Each clip shows the given highlight twice, first in full and then with markings to help break down what’s happening.

Let’s dig in.

Game 3 vs Rangers: Assist on Game-Winning Goal

Context: Tampa trails 2-0 in the series, tie game with under a minute remaining.

Falling for bluff: defenceman Ryan Lindgren (No. 55).

Kucherov starts this sequence by entering the zone and kicking the puck wide. As it bounces back to the point, he knows that Ryan Lindgren is shadowing him and begins moving to the middle of the ice while reading the play.

To make sense of what unfolds next, we need to recognize the following: Kucherov’s game is predicated on playing to his strengths and putting himself in positions to most effectively leverage his skillset. When his team has possession, this approach translates to seeking out soft spots where he can receive the puck in dangerous parts of the offensive zone and immediately do damage. Thus, his fundamental game plan is to find ways to create separation from opponents rather than jockey for position with them.

Unbeknownst to Lindgren, Kucherov has little to no intent of heading to the net and fighting for space on this play despite his body language suggesting otherwise. Waiting for the defender to look over his shoulder and bite on the sell, Kucherov slyly cuts into the slot as soon as he sees Lindgren turn his back. This play perfectly encapsulates a tactic highlighted by former Maple Leafs Analyst Jack Han:

In response to seeing Kucherov insufficiently covered in prime ice now with the puck (I’ll take “not fun” for $100, please), Mika Zibanejad (No. 93) pulls himself out of position and loses his man – the goal-scorer – on this play.

With a single off-puck move, Kucherov transforms a relatively harmless-looking possession into a high-percentage threat that causes a coverage breakdown, culminating in the game-winner. Voila, the power of outsmarting your opponent.

Game 2 vs Panthers: Assist on Game-Winning Goal

Context: Tampa leads 1-0 in series, tie game with under 30 seconds remaining.

Falling for bluff: defencemen MacKenzie Weegar (No. 52) and Gustav Forsling (No. 42).

You knew it was coming. This play is downright silly and there’s a lot more to unpack beyond what initially meets the eye – AKA that sweet, sweet pass.

The clip begins with Kucherov attempting to bank the puck deep, which his teammate successfully does seconds later. As he heads toward the end boards, he peeks over both shoulders and formulates a plan based on the information gathered. He sees that Ross Colton (No. 79) is his only immediate passing option and a good one at that, given where he’s situated. He also sees that MacKenzie Weegar is the only Panthers player within reach of Colton. Hence, his focus shifts to baiting Weegar away from Colton, while simultaneously keeping Gustav Forsling (to his right) out of the equation.

The way in which he does so is twofold. First, watch how he sells two different stories at the same time with his body as he crosses the goal line. Hands tucked and shoulders in line with the puck, his upper half is selling a forehand catch followed by a cutback or stop-up at the near post. Translation: Forsling’s responsibility. Hips and toes pointed in the opposite direction, his lower half is selling a route to the far post. Translation: Weegar’s responsibility. Things unsurprisingly go south in a hurry from here.

Remember how we touched on Kucherov’s nonchalant demeanour earlier? It actually serves as one of his most powerful tools of deception and is the second factor that explains how he lures both defenders, and especially Weegar, on this play.

The 29-year-old is exceptional at tricking opponents into underestimating him by presenting himself as a non-threat as the puck draws near. Between the leisurely pace at which he operates and the seemingly defenceless positions he puts himself in, he routinely leads opponents to believe that they have him in the palm of their hand. The upshot? They either overcommit in a zealous attempt to kill a play early or undercommit in a passive move driven by a false sense of safety. Weegar falls victim to the former. He sees a player on his backhand who’s gliding to the puck with his back turned – harmless and vulnerable – and the green light is instinctively activated.

Defensive zone breakdowns orchestrated by Kucherov: 2. Opposing teams avoiding last-minute losses: 0.

While all of these off-puck body language cues may seem minor, they heavily inform the decisions of those on the ice and have a major impact. Kucherov is a pro at assessing how to play his hand to trigger his desired response.

Game 3 vs Rangers: Power Play Goal

Context: Tampa trails 2-0 in the series, down 2-0 in second period.

Falling for bluff: goaltender Igor Shesterkin.

To appreciate this play in full, we need to start with a 5-on-3 Lightning power play from early in the period. On it, Kucherov attempts two one-time slap passes across the ice from the right circle. The first is off target but still leads to a scoring chance for a teammate and the second is deflected:

Fast-forward five minutes to another Tampa Bay power play and Kucherov’s goal:

Once again in his office at the right circle, Kucherov attempts another one-time slap pa – wait, he does what?

Pick any body part in the first close-up freeze frame – toes, shoulders, chest, hips – and it screams pass. All are square to the middle of the ice, as is his stick blade in the ensuing frame.

The intel we can gather from what happens next sets this play apart. Showing pass and shooting is one thing. Showing pass in a premeditated attempt to exploit a particular spot on a goalie before the puck arrives is another.

Kucherov knows that he can engineer an opening under Shesterkin’s left pad if he succeeds in convincing the netminder to fall for his bluff. Without nerding out too hard on goalie mechanics, when Shesterkin slides to his left while tracking the puck from the point to the circle, his left pad should be flush against the ice. Anticipating a Kucherov pass to the middle and eager to arrive early, he begins loading his left leg in preparation for a push to his right, lifting his pad in the process. By the time his “uh oh” moment occurs, he can’t course correct quickly enough to compensate for his pre-emptive decision (and boy does that off-balance attempt look awkward). No. 86 places the puck precisely as planned.

From priming the New York netminder during the 5-on-3 to further misleading him in real-time, Kucherov writes the script for this scene before the puck even touches his blade. A Hart Trophy finalist who’s seldom fooled in this manner, Shesterkin’s disbelief is apparent.

To recap all three goals: Kucherov’s brain, man. While they may not be as flashy as those he concocts with the puck, the subtle plays he makes prior are equally awe-inspiring and significant. None of these goals happen without them.

Not many players boast the capacity to control the play without controlling the puck. It’s hard enough to plan your next move, but to plan your next move and your opponent’s next move is next level.

The small advantages Kucherov creates for his team shift-to-shift add up to big moments, and big moments add up to Stanley Cups. With a three-peat on the line, Tampa Bay is counting on its star to put all his chips on the table.