In the week leading up to the NHL trade deadline, the Nashville Predators admitted defeat. They shipped out Nino Niederreiter, Tanner Jeannot, Mattias Ekholm and Mikael Granlund for a haul of draft picks and other assets.
On top of that, their four highest-paid players — Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene — have all suffered serious injuries. Frankly, the Predators have no business still being in the Western Conference wild-card race.
And yet here they are, one point behind the Winnipeg Jets ahead of their high-stakes showdown Saturday at Canada Life Centre (Sportsnet West and SN NOW, 6 p.m. CT). The Predators, who are 10-7-2 since the deadline, are coming off wins against the Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes, two of the top four teams in the league. How are they doing this?
As has been the case for the past few years, the Predators have been propped up by stellar goaltending. Led by Juuse Saros, Nashville goaltenders have saved 21 goals above expected this season, second only to the Boston Bruins (28.4). Since March 4, that number is 4.85 — third-best behind the Bruins (8.24) and New York Rangers (7.28).
Saros has stolen three games since that date and nine overall this season. A goaltender is credited with a steal when the number of GSAE is greater than the margin of victory. For example, Saros saved 2.01 goals above expected in the Predators’ 2-1 win against the Detroit Red Wings on March 14.
The Predators have needed every single one of those performances because their offence has stagnated with their top play-drivers on the shelf. In the six games that the Predators have played since Duchene joined Josi, Forsberg and Johansen on the injured list, they have averaged a league-worst 13.9 scoring chances per 60. Nashville has been out-chanced 150-84.
Help is not on the way. Forsberg, who has not played since Feb. 11, is out indefinitely with a suspected concussion. Johansen underwent leg surgery on Feb. 22 and would not be available until mid-May, based on the 12-week timeline provided by the team. Duchene is week-to-week with a hand injury. (He reportedly lost the tip of his finger after getting hit by a shot.)
The highest-paid forward in the Predators’ lineup over the past six games has been Colton Sissons, whose cap hit is less than $3 million per season. Unheralded players have emerged as key contributors, such as forward Tommy Novak, who has 41 points in 47 games since he made his season debut in December — a 71-point pace over a full season.
Nashville’s current top six — Novak, Cody Glass, Egor Afanasyev, Philip Tomasino, Kiefer Sherwood and Luke Evangelista — has a combined 469 games of NHL experience.
Of course, it also helps that the Jets have collapsed over the past few months. A regulation win in Winnipeg would vault Nashville into a playoff spot for the first time since Dec. 2.
After facing the Jets on Saturday, the Predators play the Calgary Flames, Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche to close the regular season. If the Predators qualify for the playoffs after punting on the season at the deadline, it would be one of the most miraculous runs in recent memory.
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