Predicting Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 using analytics

The most wonderful time of the year is here. No, not Christmas. The Stanley Cup playoffs.

The first round gets underway Monday with four series-opening games. Which teams will advance? Have a look.

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Florida Panthers

Four years ago, the 62-win, 128-point Tampa Bay Lightning were swept out of the first round in arguably the biggest upset in Stanley Cup playoff history. The 65-win, 135-point Bruins will not meet the same fate.

The Panthers are no pushovers, and it will be fun to watch Matthew Tkachuk, who had an MVP-calibre season, try to knock the Bruins off their game. Unfortunately for Florida, Boston has no discernible weaknesses.

The pick: Bruins

A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Is this the year the Maple Leafs finally break their first-round hex? Yes.

The Lightning have been sputtering along for the past two months, going 11-14-4 since mid-February. They do not look like a team just waiting to flip the proverbial switch. It is hard to ignore Tampa Bay’s drop-off on defence. The departures of top-four defencemen Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta have been felt. Relatedly, Victor Hedman had an uncharacteristic 48.7 XGF%. In goal, Andrei Vasilevskiy has looked human for long stretches.

The Maple Leafs should be able to take advantage of that — “should” being the operative word.

The pick: Maple Leafs

M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 New York Islanders

In 18 games without injured forward Andrei Svechnikov since March 12, the Hurricanes ranked tied for 18th in expected goals (2.75) and 26th in actual goals (2.72), respectively. Their 4.0 true shooting percentage in all situations was the worst in the NHL over that span. (Carolina’s forward group shot 4.8 per cent after Svechnikov went down.)

The Islanders are a middle-of-the-road by most measures, but Ilya Sorokin was fifth among goaltenders with 16.5 goals saved above expected this season. Carolina does not have the finishers up front to solve Sorokin. The return of forward Mathew Barzal, who missed the past two months because of a lower-body injury, will also give New York a boost.

The pick: Islanders

M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

The key to the Devils’ success this season was their rush attack, which averaged a league-best 6.23 scoring chances per game at 5-on-5. Jack Hughes (league-leading 97 rush chances at 5-on-5), Nico Hischier and Timo Meier can get up the ice in a flash, which could cause headaches for the Rangers, who ranked tied for 26th in 5-on-5 rush chances against per game. (In four meetings this season, the Devils had a 26-7 advantage in 5-on-5 odd-man rushes.)

Despite playing an uptempo style, New Jersey is stout defensively at 5-on-5, finishing 10th with 1.79 expected goals against per game. The Rangers have the clear edge in playoff experience and reigning Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin (9.54 GSAE) in net. But the Devils’ young legs will lead them to their first playoffs series win since 2012.

The pick: Devils

P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets

The Jets narrowly avoided an epic collapse, qualifying for the playoffs despite losing 21 of their final 38 games after leading the Western Conference in mid-January. They have stabilized over the past couple of weeks, winning five of their final seven games by a combined score of 26-13.

Jets coach Rick Bowness has found forward lines that work; the second line of Nikolaj Ehlers, Vladislav Namestnikov and Blake Wheeler, for example, has a 68.6 XGF% and outscored opponents 7-0 at 5-on-5 since Namestnikov joined the Jets at the trade deadline.

Although the injury-plagued Golden Knights went 22-4-5 after the all-star break and won the Pacific Division, their underlying numbers were not overly impressive. They controlled 51 per cent of expected goals at 5-on-5 in 31 post-break games.

On special teams, Vegas ranked 25th on the penalty kill (74.7 per cent) and tied for 28th on the power play (14.9 per cent) over that span. (Granted, the Golden Knights were playing without captain and two-way force Mark Stone, who could return after being sidelined since mid-January.)

Connor Hellebuyck is the X-factor. Five different goaltenders started for the Golden Knights after the all-star break, and Hellebuyck’s former backup, Laurent Brossoit, is in line to start the first playoff game of his career Tuesday. There is too much uncertainty in Vegas’ crease. (Sorry, Goldie.)

The pick: Jets

P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Last season, the Kings took the Oilers to seven games in the first round. But they were not facing this version of Connor McDavid, who had the best offensive season in nearly 30 years. Los Angeles is an elite defensive team, allowing the fewest inner-slot shots and second-fewest expected goals in the league.

But McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins — the first trio of teammates with at least 100 points since 1995-96 — will not be denied. The Oilers’ power play, which was the most prolific in league history, will make the difference.

The pick: Oilers

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken

The Kraken have been lighting up the scoreboard this season, scoring a league-high 58.6 goals above expected in all situations. The problem is that their first-round opponent is a proven offensive powerhouse.

With all due respect to Jared McCann, Matty Beniers and Vince Dunn, they are not Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar.

The pick: Avalanche

C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild

The Stars and Wild share many characteristics. Both teams are strong defensively and have excellent goaltending. In Jason Robertson and Kirill Kaprizov, the Stars and Wild also have game-breaking top-line left wingers.

The difference, however, is that Dallas has a few more options offensively, such as a rejuvenated Jamie Benn and rookie Wyatt Johnston. Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski outscored opponents 52-24 at 5-on-5. Meanwhile, the Wild’s projected top line of Kaprizov, Ryan Hartman and Mats Zuccarello had an even goal differential of 12-12.

Matt Boldy had a strong finish to the regular season, but overall, the Wild’s forward group has a little less pop. The absence of Joel Eriksson Ek, one of Minnesota’s best defensive forwards, looms large.

The pick: Stars