Quick Shifts: Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas swings for fences with O’Reilly trade

A quick mix of the things we gleaned from the week of hockey, serious and less so, and rolling four lines deep. Positivity sucks the joy right out of the comments section.

1. OK, so Kyle Dubas won’t trade his first-round pick for a rental.

But, it turns out, under pressure — and for the right pieces — the general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs will trade his first-round pick, a 2024 second-round pick, his better third-round pick, and a 2025 fourth-round pick for two rentals (salary retained).

Breathe easy, Leafs Nation. Matthew Knies is still Toronto property.

Get excited, Leafs Nation. Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari are on their way.

If you believed Dubas had been snake-bitten by 2021’s unfortunate rental of Nick Foligno for a first-round pick, you haven’t seen him with his back pressed against a wall.

Bo Horvat was off the board. Timo Meier felt too complicated and expensive. Patrick Kane looks risky.

O’Reilly — an Ontario native and a Conn Smythe and Selke Trophy champion — was the best realistic option to boost a forward group in need of depth.

Absolutely, the future has been mortgaged. Whomever is GM’ing the Maple Leafs at the 2023 draft won’t have picks in rounds 1, 2, 4 and 7. The 2024 second- and third-rounders are spent. The 2025 second and fourth, too.

Yet following six straight series losses and staring at only two guaranteed springs with Auston Matthews and William Nylander in the fold, the window is now.

Toronto was never going to be able to dress a better goaltender than its first-round foe, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

What Friday night’s move does, however, is give the Leafs the edge up front and leave enough cap space to still add to its blueline.

God love David Kämpf, but Toronto’s third-line centre has all of four goals this season and has not scored in 27 games. Offensively, the Leafs’ bottom six would’ve gotten eaten alive over a seven-gamer.

O’Reilly has points in both games and is a plus-3 since returning from a broken foot.

He can play wing and skate 20 minutes a night if needed. He has a defensive conscience and is deft in the face-off dot. Sheldon Keefe will adore him. He’ll be worth every penny of the $1.875 million double-retained cap hit Dubas is paying him (thank you, Bill Guerin).

We love the idea of O’Reilly pushing Kämpf down to the fourth line, killing penalties, soaking up some hard matchups, and freeing Matthews and John Tavares for more O-zone time.

Further, if the Leafs do suffer an injury up front, O’Reilly will have no issue moving up.

Everyone simply slots better.

Sure, there is no guarantee O’Reilly takes the Spezza discount, signs beyond this season and becomes more than just a rental.

But there is no guarantee Dubas would be around in 2023-24 either.

The trade is big and bold, and we love it. It will elevate the Leafs into Round 2 or result in pink slips.

The chips have been pushed. The hand looks deadlier now.

2. O’Reilly isn’t the only one in the trade with a history of Selke votes.

Don’t overlook the Acciari element of the trade. (He appeared on Selke ballots in 2019-20 while with the Florida Panthers.)

The steady cycle of Marlies in Toronto’s bottom six had to end.

Acciari brings 54 games of playoff experience and more depth up middle ice. You can never have too many centres.

He’s a trustworthy, edgy defensive forward who is enjoying the second-best offensive campaign of his career (10-8–18 through 54 games). He only starts 70 per cent of his shifts in the defensive zone yet gets the puck moving in the right direction.

Toronto’s penalty kill, which had improved to eighth overall in 2021-22, had quietly slipped to 13th place. And the Maple Leafs’ special teams have hurt them in Aprils past.

Acciari and O’Reilly should boost the PK.

3. Hampus Lindholm began questioning the direction of the Anaheim Ducks when Pat Verbeek took the GM’s chair.

Two weeks prior to the 2022 trade deadline — the same distance we sit from the 2023 one — it was apparent to the top-four defenceman that he would be cutting ties with the organization that had drafted him sixth overall in 2012.

“I was trending the opposite way that the team was trending,” Lindholm says.

The Ducks’ approach no longer fit the style Lindholm wanted to play. He’s a superb skater. A solid defensive foundation has never been an issue. He craves the freedom to buzz all over the ice. He wanted to explore his offensive ceiling.

As one of the few sure-fire bets on the rental market, Lindholm felt fortunate he could dictate own destiny.

“A lot of teams wanted to sign me. In that way, I had it a lot nicer than others,” Lindholm says. “But then, on the other side, it was a little scary signing long-term in a place I hadn’t been.”

The Bruins had reached out to Lindholm’s camp early in the season and planted a seed of interest, so the player had months to ponder.

In January of 2022, the Ducks flew into Boston for their annual TD Garden date early. Lindholm used his two and half days in the city to explore, knowing Beantown was a potential future home. Then he went out and hung three assists in an upset over the Bruins.

“I just kinda felt at home,” he says.

Once Lindholm caught wind Don Sweeney was one of the executives serious about a trade-and-sign, the choice was easy.

“Looking back, it’s been a home run. If I knew all the stuff then that I know now, I’d be jumping all over my agent: ‘Just get me there right away!’ But it is a little scary (in the moment),” Lindholm explains.

The system new coach Jim Montgomery implanted this season aligns with Lindholm’s unshackled desires. Forwards must help in the D-zone; defencemen have the greenlight in the O-zone. He has responded with a career-high 36 points, with two months to go.

“It’s really fun for me to explore my offensive side and go up in the rush,” Lindholm enthuses. “That’s the new wave of defencemen. Compare it to 10, 15 years ago. Everyone now has six defencemen who can move the puck and make plays.”

“It had a huge impact in a positive way. His personality suited our group very well,” says partner Brandon Carlo, thinking back to the trade.

“He always has that killer instinct. The way he plays, we match up well together. I can kinda stay back a bit, but I love how he’s assertive and doesn’t change his ways regardless of the situation. Down a goal, up a goal, he continues to play the same way.”

4. Sweeney isn’t satisfied with his defence, even though the Bruins rank first overall with 2.07 goals allowed per game.

The Bruins have expressed interest in top-tier blueline targets Vladislav Gavrikov and Jakob Chychrun.

The team with an .806 points percentage is open to a boost from its general manager.

“If there’s any way we can get better, that’s obviously something we want to look at. We’re not gonna just settle in and say, ‘We’re good enough to do the task right now.’ We want to be better in any facet of the game we can, and we’re gonna support that,” Carlo says. “It’s his job to try and make us as best as we can be, and he’s done a great job of that so far.”

The notion that a fresh face could upset the harmony in Boston’s lineup is silly. The players are open to making a deep roster even deeper.

“We’re trying to build toward something. I think management knows that. We’re trying to build toward being a Stanley Cup champion,” Nick Foligno says.

“If they feel there’s a need to put somebody in, we’re going to trust that guy. A lot of times I’m sure they talk to Bergy (captain Patrice Bergeron) about who they’re bringing in. The communication, you can see, is there. I don’t think they’re ever going to bring someone in that doesn’t help our group or messes up the chemistry of the team

“We’re a very confident team in what we have, and I think it does sometimes give you a boost, though, when you get somebody that can push you over the edge.”

5. “Trade-related reasons” — coined by the Arizona Coyotes and swiftly adopted by the Columbus Blue Jackets — is the transparent new reason for a healthy scratch.

Perhaps these deals are close to completion.

Perhaps these teams are firing a flare in the sky and summoning all bidders to “sharpen their pencils,” as my real-estate agent once urged my family to do before we lost another Toronto bidding war on a semi-detached fixer-upper that went well over asking.

But something feels funny here, as we’ve now gone a week with Chychrun held out of action and still untraded.

Provided the player is OK with twiddling his thumbs, we suppose it’s fine. But for the ticket-buying public, it’s a concerning precedent to set.

So, we are at least encouraged that the San Jose Sharks are still flinging Timo Meier over the boards — for now.

6. General manager David Poile is on the fence, but not even the heroics of goalie Juuse Saros can save the Nashville Predators this time.

The Preds’ playoff chances have slipped to 9.5 per cent. Time to consider changes.

What’s tricky here is that there are no obvious rental candidates. Big deals in Nashville would need to involve players with term.

Cagey veterans Ryan McDonagh ($6.75 million) and Mattias Ekholm ($6.25 million) are still effective and still under contract through 2025-26, so there is zero pressure on Poile to deal them now.

Dante Fabbro, 24, is a pending restricted free agent with arbitration rights, so a decision on him is looming.

The issue in Nashville is a familiar one. The Predators struggle to score. They rank 26th in goals per game (2.69).

At what point do they seriously modify their identity and give their excellent back end some run support?

Feels like the kind of surgery more suited to the off-season.

7. Goaltenders rarely move at the deadline, but the way Joonas Korpisalo has shone this season in Columbus makes him most worthy of a look.

Despite playing behind the NHL’s worst team, Korpisalo has compiled a .910 save percentage and drastically outperformed his successor, Elvis Merzlikins (.873).

Even better: The pending UFA comes with some playoff pedigree (he posted a .941 in his nine 2020 bubble games) and carries a modest $1.3 million cap hit.

Both physically and mentally, Korpisalo was not himself in 2021-22, and the rough season took a toll on his confidence and his wallet.

“That’s a lonely position,” Blue Jackets coach Brad Larsen empathizes. “I’ve never played baseball at a high enough level, but I imagine the pitcher feels the same way. When things are rolling it’s great. When they’re not, it probably feels like you’re throwing a beachball up there.

“That position is so critical, and the mind is really important.”

The 28-year-old’s mind is in the right place again. Those around the team describe Korpisalo as calm yet competitive. And easy to like.

Of all the goaltenders in 2023’s UFA class with at least 20 appearances, only Tristan Jarry (.921) and Adin Hill (.912) have a better save percentage.

Leafs goalie Matt Murray (ankle) still does not have a timeline for return to action. Just sayin’…

8. If it’s mid-February and you’re still wondering whether you’re a buyer or a seller, you are a seller.

9. Max Domi took a pay cut and a security cut over the summer when he signed the shortest contract of his career. The versatile forward bet on himself and joined Team Tank in Chicago for one year and $3 million.

That contract and, moreover, Domi’s resurgent performance has turned him into an intriguing trade chip on a roster filled with them.

“I think we're all in the same boat, right?” says Domi, who has found a top-six fit on his fifth team. “It's a tough time of year, especially when the year has gone the way it has. Obviously, some changes tend to happen around this time of year — and no one wants to see that. We all have become pretty close in this room. It's a great group of guys, and it's unfortunate how it's played out. But it's part of the business.”

Domi, 27, has put himself in line for an off-season pay bump by producing at a rate (14-22–36) he hasn’t seen since three teams and four seasons ago in Montreal.

The what-ifs buzzing around his brain between now and March 3 will “drive yourself insane,” if you dwell on them, Domi figures. So, he’s trying to narrow his focus to the next game. Staying in the moment is a battle, admittedly.

“All you can really do is be a pro, come to the rink every single day and be a good teammate. The cliché stuff, really. Just take it day by day,” he says.

“But you got to really soak it all in and enjoy it because these are awesome times with a great group of guys. So, unfortunately, it's probably not gonna last forever.”

10. Rasmus Sandin has been relentless with his razzing of Leafs teammate William Nylander during his media availabilities, and we’re here for it.

On what stands out about Nylander’s elevated play: “He’s backchecking. Finally.”

On Nylander taking his first-ever roughing penalty: “It’s about time.”

Don’t get it twisted: this is a close friend with a good sense of humour, and an unbothered star who would never get fazed by these good-natured chirps.

Sandin and Nylander train together all summer and even shared Christmas dinner this season.

The charismatic defenceman loves the increased emotion Nylander is showing as he hits the 30-goal mark for the earliest point in his career.

“It just shows that he really cares, and he was a little frustrated and he took it out on that little guy,” Sandin says. “His effort has gone up a little bit every single game.

“He’s always played terrific, but this year I think his standard has been a little bit higher. I think every game he's coming into work. He's working hard. He's doing everything he can for the team. So, it’s something I really appreciate from him this year.”

11. Exhibit A in the case for securing home-ice advantage in the Atlantic Division: The three winningest home teams in the league are the Boston Bruins (22-2-3), Tampa Bay Lightning (21-4-2) and Toronto Maple Leafs (21-6-4).

12. One of my favourite Jay-Z lines comes from “Heart of the City (Ain’t No Love)”: “Sensitive thugs, y’all all need hugs.”

That rhyme ran through my head upon learning of the NBA’s all-star draft plans this weekend. The captains of Team Giannis and Team LeBron will select reserve players first, then the starters, so as to avoid the dreaded embarrassment of having one man being “last pick” at the schoolyard.

The NHL ditched its entertaining all-star draft in part because of on-camera intoxication and in part because of the shame of going last.

Phil Kessel memorably won a car for the (dis)honour in 2011:

Someone must go last. Who cares? Why so sensitive?

It’s all for funsies.

I’d love to see the NHL bring back the draft for 2024 all-star weekend in Toronto.

Maybe an element of mystery, where the final two picks are given sealed envelopes that contain a prize.

Or throw in a twist, where the captain believes he’s drafting his own squad but later learns that he was picking his opponent’s team all along.