Quick Shifts: Maple Leafs' options to solve their goaltending woes

A quick mix of the things we gleaned from the week of hockey, serious and less so, and rolling four lines deep. I resolve to stuff everything into this carry-on.

1. If we can agree that the Toronto Maple Leafs would be better off not playing Ilya Samsonov for a while, then we must put ourselves in Brad Treliving's shoes and ask: What are the general manager's options?

"I'm sure Tre is going to consider everything," Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said Friday night. "You're already into your third goalie with Marty Jones here. Now you're starting to get into our guys who are developing. Now you gotta think about them and putting them in positions to succeed and not derail their development that's going well. At the same time, it's the NHL."

And thanks to their dynamic offence and some bonus points in overtime and shootouts, the Leafs are still a relevant NHL team — despite their 22nd-ranked goaltending (.892 team save percentage).

Treliving's easiest but least appealing option is to do nothing: Simply ride the 33-year-old Jones, hold his nose through January's trio of back-to-backs (Jan. 2-3, Jan. 13-14, Jan. 20-21), and hope that (a) Jones stays healthy, (b) that Joseph Woll returns healthy and in form sometime in February and (c) that, just maybe, a miracle pops up on the waiver wire.

"Back-to-back situations like we're in right now, you're gonna have to use both your guys. So, there's times we're gonna need Sammy," Keefe said. "In between his starts, he's going to have to continue to work and find himself. He's a good goaltender. He's a far better goalie than he's played here this season."

We don't like that option.

The second easiest would be to either waive Samsonov to the farm (he'd clear) or get him to agree to an AHL conditioning stint with the Marlies.

Toronto could then recall a prospect the organization doesn't want to rush: the more experienced Keith Petruzzelli, 24, is 4-3-1 with an .879 save percentage; and the more touted Dennis Hildeby, 22, is 7-5-2 with a .920 save percentage.

Door No. 3 requires looking for outside help.

Jaroslav Halak is a 38-year-old free agent backup who posted a .903 save percentage in the past two seasons with the Canucks and Rangers. He's not up to speed, but he also won't cost an asset.

A few middling NHL goaltenders could be had via trade. Names such as Jake Allen, Eric Comrie, Anton Forsberg and Dan Vladar — whom Treliving traded for and re-signed in Calgary — will pop up.

But with the Devils, Hurricanes and Oilers also poking around the goalie market, even the price for a replacement-level netminder is abnormally high right now.

The dream-scenario option would be Juuse Saros, who has another year on his Nashville contract at a $5-million cap hit, but the Predators are still in the hunt. And Saros would cost more than we believe Treliving is willing to spend. (What? A first-rounder plus Fraser Minten or Easton Cowan?)

Perhaps the best low-risk, low-investment option I heard is Louis Domingue.

The 31-year-old career backup was stellar this season in his one appearance for the New York Rangers, who are set with Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick.

Domingue makes just $775,000 on an expiring deal and has been solid for AHL Hartford (8-2-2, .911).

Of course, the Rangers have Stanley Cup aspirations. They, too, are aware of the importance of goalie depth and won't be in any rush to do a conference rival any favours.

2. A stray thought on the Samsonov fiasco but one that applies to a general NHL trend: Why are coaches so petrified of using the same goaltender on consecutive nights?

I understand that it's uncomfortable to use the same guy on both ends of a back-to-back and that sports scientists can trot out data explaining that harms of wear and tear.

But at what point are you doing the rest of your team a disservice by sticking with a goalie who doesn't have it? Because harming your group's morale can't be quantified on a spreadsheet, that means it doesn't count?

When are you just shrugging and conceding points because, hey, only Martin Brodeur can play on consecutive nights?

Analytics are a wonderful tool, but breaking the pattern of the "smart" decision on occasion can awaken everyone's attention.

3. The most valuable pending UFA of 2024 doesn't even wear skates during the games.

Incredible that Carolina Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind'Amour has not signed an extension with his preferred franchise.

More incredible that Brind'Amour's lack of job security has been such an under-discussed storyline this season. (Imagine how much noise there would be around his "lame duck" status if he worked in a Canadian market.)

Yes, Brind'Amour is the longest-tenured NHL coach to not guide his group to a Stanley Cup, but he has taken the Canes to two conference finals.

Carolina missed the playoffs nine straight springs before hiring Brind'Amour. Since, they've made the dance all five times and won seven post-season series. This, despite ownership not always spending to the cap.

Yes, Carolina is scuffling this season, but the 2021 Jack Adams winner still has his team in playoff position despite getting the worst goaltending in the whole league. (The Canes rank 32nd in team save percentage at .878.)

Aren't bad goalies supposed to get coaches fired?

Owner Tom Dundon paid Brind'Amour less than market value during their previous negotiation, leveraging Brind'Amour's love for Raleigh and its team to his advantage.

Brind'Amour knew it and accepted it. Money isn't the only thing that buys happiness.

“I know it’s not going to be an easy negotiation. I can tell you that,” Brind’Amour told The David Glenn Show, heading into the final year of his agreement.

“At the end of the day, your salary is one area, but there’s a ton of other areas. There’s my relationship with my team and my owner and how we get to decide on who stays. I don’t know that any coach, in any sport, has what I have [with the Hurricanes], so that’s maybe priceless in some regard.”

While opposing GMs may dream of paying Brind'Amour what he deserves and acquiring such a respected motivator, there is mutual expectation that the sides will come to terms eventually.

“We are going to get it done, for sure,” Dundon told The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun on Sept. 25.

OK.

“I’d like to get it done if it’s going to get done, just because I don’t want to have the next [media] guy ask me the same question,” Brind'Amour told LeBrun. “The longer it goes on, everyone goes, ‘What’s going on here?’

“So, hopefully we get to it.”

Dundon is playing the hometown-discount card again, and he may well be financially prudent to do so.

But what theatre it would be if Brind'Amour — who banked an estimated $52.4 million as a player — decided he wanted his pay to match his worth.

4. Auston Matthews has scored 328 goals (244 even-strength, 53 game winners) through his first 513 games.

Alex Ovechkin scored 318 goals (210 even-strength, 53 game winners) through his first 513 games.

Yes, Matthews is outpacing the guy trying to catch Wayne Gretzky.

John Tavares, marveling at his teammate's run of 15 goals over the past 11 games: "He's just in one of those zones."

5. What's crazier?

That the Dallas Stars scored twice in the final 14 seconds of regulation to swipe two points from rival Nashville and give the Predators plenty to grieve about on Festivus?

Or that the Stars beat their own NHL record for the latest a team has scored a game-tying and go-ahead goal in regulation?

Back on Oct. 14, 1995, Mike Modano scored a tying goal at 59:44 and Guy Carbonneau potted the winner at 59:55 to upset the Boston Bruins. 

6. Kris Letang's five assists in the second period, during Pittsburgh's 7-0 thrashing of the Islanders Wednesday, marked the most points ever scored by a defenceman in a single NHL period.

Letang added a sixth assist, becoming the first road player do pick up six apples since Eric Lindros in 1997.

Just as wild: Letang became the first Penguin to record five points in a period. (Take that, Mario, Sid and Jaromir.) Only three other active players can lay claim to such a productive 20 minutes: Mika Zibanejad, Sam Gagner and Tage Thompson.

7. Some heart-warming holiday content, packaged with care by Sidney Crosby:

8. The "rookie wall" is a real phenomenon.

Be it NCAA grads, Canadian juniors or European pros making the leap to the show, no young player is fully prepared for the NHL's 82-game gauntlet, with its relentless travel schedule and limited breath-catching breaks.

An assistant coach for years, Columbus bench boss Pascal Vincent has seen many a freshman lose energy around the all-star break.

Vincent is betting teenager Adam Fantilli can be an exception, however.

"Because of his maturity and he's physically strong already," Vincent said, "I don't know if he's going to hit that wall."

To help the franchise's prized centreman hurdle that wall, to ease the mental toll of the grind, Vincent tries to put Fantilli in positions to succeed. That means sheltering him from the opposition's top line or throwing him out for offensive-zone draws.

"We feel very fortunate to have him. Obviously, when you get those guys, it's because your season wasn't so good. But the bright side is, he's one of us now. The young man is a powerful man as far as his physical abilities, but the one thing we don't talk about enough is his mental strength," Vincent said.

"He's a very mature young man. Any he's got this swagger. Like, he's got this confidence — and not in the negative way whatsoever. He's a very positive force, carrying this confidence that he can play at this level and be a difference-maker already. And he's done it.

"He's like a sponge — just really coachable. So, he's a big component of our future and our present right now. He's been adjusting really well."

Fantilli himself said the nonstop travel has been the greatest challenge.

Ranked second in rookie scoring, Fantilli had a blast living with Patrik Laine for the first couple weeks and has gone for dinners with his more-seasoned teammates, picking the brains of the team's veterans — Zach Werenski, Sean Kuraly, Erik Gudbranson — for advice on how to best take care of his body.

9. Good on Ethan Bear for earning a two-year contract (backloaded to the maximize his cash) with Washington so late in his unrestricted free agency.

Remember, UFAs must be under contract by the March 8 trade deadline to be eligible for playoff participation.

We're looking at you, Phil Kessel and Zach Parise.

10. A role reversal has taken place on Broadway.

When New York Rangers defenceman Jacob Trouba entered the league as a Winnipeg Jets top-10 draft pick, Blake Wheeler ran the room in Manitoba.

Trouba's the captain now. And Wheeler is the new guy, figuring out where he fits.

"He calls me 'Skip' now, which he never used to call me," Trouba said, smiling. "'Skipper.' I guess like a baseball manager."

Wheeler, 37, was slow to produce in his new threads but now has eight points in his past seven games.

He's no longer getting the benefit of top-six minutes or prime power-play usage, but he is poised to finish on the plus side of the ledger for the first time in four seasons.

At $800,000, Winnipeg's exiled leader is delivering fine value as a role player on a contender.

"As of most recent, I think this is the best that he's played for us. His feet are moving. He's generating offence; his line's generating offence. He's in on the forecheck. He's playing physical. He's a big body and seems to be hitting his stride a little bit," Rangers coach Peter Laviolette said.

"Sometimes, it takes a minute when you change organizations. You're trying to figure out where your seat is on the bus. And even if you're an experienced player, like Blake, who's been a captain of a team before, it's still a new team. He's come in here, and he's figuring out his way to contribute."

Trouba, 29, left Winnipeg four years before Wheeler, yet the two have always stayed in touch. Helps that both players' wives are close friends, too. Naturally, Trouba was jacked when the Blueshirts grabbed Wheeler in free agency.

"I was excited. Really excited," Trouba said. "I learned a lot from Blake. I had a lot to learn as a 19-, 20-year-old in Winnipeg, and he just looked out for me. I trained with him for a summer. He kinda spent a lot of time that he didn't need to spend with me, and it's kind of been fun to be with him on the other side.

"Our roles are little bit switched. I hope he's enjoying it as much as I am. But it's been fun to have him in New York and watch him enjoy the city."

10. With Timothy Liljegren and now Mark Giordano healthy and back in action for the Maple Leafs, suddenly the club is carrying three D-men vying for one lineup spot: Simon Benoit, William Lagesson and Conor Timmins.

"We have options now," Keefe said.

Benoit got first crack at that coveted 6D spot Friday, delivering with an aggressive performance and a willingness to drop the gloves with the taller, heavier, and more experienced Erik Gudbranson.

"That's exactly what our group needed in the moment," Leafs defenceman Morgan Rielly said.

"Sticks his nose into everything," Keefe added. "He's really impressed us. He's come a long way, and I think he's just going to continue to get better."

Keefe is quick to praise the undrafted 25-year-old's defensive instincts, competitive nature and coachability.

Benoit is a bargain at $775,000. He's also a pending RFA with arbitration rights.

Considering Benoit's age, Keefe's appreciation for his game, and the Leafs only having three NHL D-men under contract for 2023-24, Toronto should consider extending him for third-pair money.

11. Something to watch, something to celebrate. (Because who doesn't love goals?)

For the ninth consecutive season, the league-wide save percentage is riding a downward trend.

NHL goalies, as a collective, are operating at a save percentage of just .903 this season — the worst mark since netminders got punished to a .901 rate in 2005-06. Save rates hit a 60-year high in 2014-15 with .915 but have been gradually receding.

Why?

We asked a number of players and coaches, and plenty of theories were offered: expansion has weakened the goalie and defence pool; the hard cap has thrust underdeveloped goalies into the big leagues; the crackdown on goalie-pad size; the crackdown on defence infractions (cross-checking, holding, interference); increased skills training; stick technology improvement; rising power-play efficiencies; an increasing focus by coaches and analysts on the best way to score goals (i.e., more cross-seam passes and one-timers); and the rise of skill players and elimination of pure checkers in the bottom six.

Safe to say, plenty of factors are at play. It'll be fascinating to see how low the average can go.

12. Proof that there is a Santa Claus ... and that those goalie hugs aren't just performative displays of affection: