Reality check: Is passing between Leafs' Marner, Matthews actually not clicking?

If you’re a regular listener of Real Kyper & Bourne, you’ve likely become familiar with a recurring conversation where any time the Toronto Maple Leafs top line isn’t producing at the clip we’re used to, my guy Nick Kypreos theorizes it’s because Auston Matthews is a shooter, and therefore doesn’t move the puck.

I push back on that idea, he pushes back on the pushback, and we agree to disagree, neither side moving an inch off his opening opinion.

My stance has always been that Matthews does pass the puck both often and well, but he’d be mental not to shoot first when his options are 50/50, or even when they slightly favour passing as the obvious thing, given he’s been the best goal scorer in the NHL since the first day he stepped into the league, including Alex Ovechkin (by goals per game).

I had been meaning to look more into that Matthews-passing debate from a statistical perspective, and a recent quote from Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe gave me the final push to do it. Despite the early winning record with Matthews and Mitch Marner playing massive minutes, Keefe pointed out that he doesn’t think they’ve really clicked yet:

"I wouldn’t say it is executing at the level we have come to expect from them," he told reporters recently. "It is early, obviously, but some of the passing, in particular, hasn’t been quite crisp and sharp. Execution hasn’t been happening. We have focused a lot on the left winger and who has been with them, but if we just focus on those two guys, it hasn’t been executing at the level we would expect.

"They are going to stay with it. They are both working hard and doing good things defensively, but offensively, there are a lot of plays that in the past were connecting that right now are getting broken up."

Nobody’s been watching this team closer than Keefe, and the stats back up what the coach had to say. 

Let’s look deep into the passing data for Matthews and Marner compared to other NHL forwards. (Thanks to Stathletes for much of the below.)

They are both, in fact, quite good at passing.

It starts here for me: When looking at raw totals of “completed passes” this season, all strengths, Matthews and Marner are way up the list. Marner is 11th in the league, with 192, while Matthews is 14th in the league, with 182. It’s safe to say both players are on the ice a tonne and move the puck consistently. The names in their immediate leaderboard cluster are Sidney Crosby, Jack Eichel, Nathan MacKinnon and Nick Suzuki. Very good all-around offensive guys.

The two Leafs stars have been in that range for a few years. Two years ago, Matthews was 13th and Marner 12th. Last season, Marner played 80 games, and he was sixth, while Matthews played six fewer games and was just outside the top 20.

Because they play a lot, though, it might be more interesting to look at their completed passes totals on a “per 60” rate, so they can be compared more accurately to the rest of the league’s forwards.

So, here’s where you can see that Keefe’s point holds up. They’re simply not having the same success they’ve had in the past, with the drop in rate looking substantial.

What’s important, then, is to see not just how many they’re completing over a game, but how many they’re completing as a function of how many they’re attempting. And, it hasn’t been pretty. It looks as though both guys are trying to pass it, they’re just really struggling at getting those attempts through, with Marner faring considerably worse this season.

Obviously, the Marner stats stand out here (and this is at all strengths; at even-strength, his completion rate is below 70 per cent), but I can at least see how part of this slow start is a perception thing.

Compared to himself, he can do better, no question.

But if you sort the NHL “leaderboard” for turnovers each season, it’s always the league’s best players at the top. They try a lot of things, including trying the type of passes that may not work, but if they do, end in prime scoring opportunities for their linemates. They see and attempt things the average players can’t even process.

We can see that fleshed out in their respective primary assist totals over the past couple seasons:

This season, both players have just two primary assists, which, given their respective roles, probably reflects worse on Marner than Matthews.

By SportLogiq, only 16 forwards have turned over more pucks than Marner’s 60, while Matthews has 51 turnovers.

If you root for the Leafs, you know a few things have been true this season. One is that Matthews and Marner are playing way too much hockey for October, sitting No. 1 and No. 2 in the NHL among forwards in time-on-ice per game, both well north of 22 minutes (with Matthews approaching 23).

Maybe that’s a reason they’ve been a little more sloppy.

On the other hand, maybe you want to see it as a positive. The team is 5-2 when Marner is below a point per game, after being well above that for five seasons in a row. There’s likely more offence to come from these two, who their coach was right about — they haven’t passed the puck particularly well and they should connect better in days ahead.

Keefe tried to deflect attention from the pair's left winger, but you do have to think that after two seasons of playing with the same guy (Michael Bunting), that an adjustment period is to be expected with whoever gets a real run there. I still expect Tyler Bertuzzi to get back there at some point, namely after he finds his own game within the Leafs system. Until then, they’re likely have a non-top-line left winger, and it may remain a little more challenging.

In all, it’s pretty clear Matthews does, in fact, pass the puck fairly often and fairly well compared to other forwards in the NHL. Marner is one of the best at creating goals from his passing, even if it does come at the cost of some turnovers.

Watch these two long enough, and it’s not hard to see that it’s a matter of when, not if they’ll start to connect again — and help push the Leafs offence to a higher level yet.