Retool or rebuild? Taking stock of the Bruins after disappointing season

Pro sports can be wildly unpredictable at the best of times. Every year there are some teams built for playoff success that have a difficult time gelling and playing to a consistent identity. Factor in multiple injuries to key players and the trajectory of a team can change in a heartbeat. In the blink of an eye an organization can find itself pivoting focus towards retooling, or rebuilding, the roster for potential future success. 

The Boston Bruins might not have been considered a Stanley Cup contending outfit to start the season, but I never envisioned a team that finished with 135 points and 109 points the past two seasons would have such a precipitous fall from grace. If Boston wins its final game Tuesday against the New Jersey Devils they will finish the year with 77 points, their lowest 82-game total since 2006-07.

The numbers don’t lie. For the first time in several years, the Bruins find themselves in a state of transition. The question is: are they on the cusp of a rebuild, or can they re-tool things this off-season to come back more competitive in 2025-26?

I personally don’t see Boston entering into any form of a rebuild. The roster is deep enough to rebound and the Bruins will have loads of cap space this off-season. If they end up getting lucky at the draft lottery and pick first overall, that pick would land them a game-changer, too.

But with Boston set to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016, I'm taking a look at what happened, how they got here, and what the future looks like in Beantown.

How Boston got here

The outlook for the Bruins was relatively positive last off-season when they added to their roster via free agency and trade:

• Veteran free agents, second line forward Elias Lindholm and physical defenceman Nikita Zadorov, signed long-term contracts.

• Depth forward Mark Kastelic, along with backup goaltender Joonas Korpisalo, joined the Bruins as part of the trade that sent Linus Ullmark to the Ottawa Senators. 

• The Ullmark trade also landed Boston a first-round pick (25^th overall) in last summer’s draft.

The first really troubling moment for Boston was when things didn't go smoothly with Jeremy Swayman in contract extension talks. It was their most important off-season negotiation, but took a long time to resolve.

Swayman was a restricted free agent last summer and the Bruins had already made it clear after the Ullmark trade that he was their preferred starting goalie for the future. Swayman was coming off a year in which he posted a 2.53 GAA and .916 save percentage in 44 regular season games followed by an impressive playoffs (2.15GAA, .933SV%). Both sides dug in and the negotiation eventually got public before they came to an agreement on an eight-year deal counting for $8.25 million against the salary cap that will keep Swayman a Bruin until 2032.

The problem was the extension didn't get signed until the end of training camp and missing that time of year is never ideal for an athlete, especially NHL goalies. Swayman never really got on track this season and I believe it was partly due to the way his negotiation played out last summer. He hasn’t been afforded the luxury of playing behind as strong a group as he has in the past, but his numbers have fallen off dramatically, to a 3.08 GAA and .894 save percentage in a career high 57 games.

The coaching change

After struggling to an 8-9-3 record to start the season the Bruins decided to make a coaching change. Jim Montgomery was replaced with interim head coach Joe Sacco on November 19.

Montgomery wasn’t out of a job long. He was named head coach of the St. Louis Blues on November 25 and the former Jack Adams Award winner has done a wonderful job in St. Louis and has them on the cusp of making the playoffs. 

The Bruins have gone 25-30-6 under Sacco, including a painful run of 11-15-4 in their last 30 games. To be fair to the coach, Boston decided to trade out several veterans at the deadline in March, which didn’t leave Sacco with as much to work with down the stretch run. 

The trade deadline

Don Sweeney made the decision to get aggressive as a seller at the trade deadline. He moved out career Bruin and team captain Brad Marchand (Florida Panthers) as well as centres Charlie Coyle (Colorado Avalanche) and Trent Frederic (Edmonton Oilers). Defenceman Brandon Carlo was moved to the Toronto Maple Leafs and winger Justin Brazeau to the Minnesota Wild.  

It was a clear indication that the Bruins were resetting their roster.

Key injuries

Two of the Bruins' top defencemen have missed considerable time due to injury and it has added to their overall struggle as a team. 

It’s impossible to overstate how important Charlie McAvoy is to the Bruins. McAvoy averages around 25 minutes per game ice time and is deployed in all situations. He’s the heart and soul of Boston’s defence corps, but was injured at the 4 Nations Face-Off and missed the rest of the season. Without him, Boston was significantly easier to play against in their own zone.

Meantime, Hampus Lindholm only played 17 games this season. He suffered through different types of injury, but the final blow came when he blocked a shot in February and sustained a season-ending knee injury. Lindholm averages around 21 minutes per game for the Bruins and, like McAvoy, is deployed in all situations. Having Lindholm out of the lineup was an additional void the Bruins couldn’t afford to have. 

Forwards

David Pastrnak is one of the top forwards in the entire league and Morgan Geekie has had a fantastic season, but the team will need Pavel Zacha and Elias Lindholm to take their games to another level again next season. 

Since arriving from Colorado in the trade that sent Charlie Coyle to the Avs, forward Casey Mittlestadt has struggled mightily in a Bruins uniform, scoring only 4G-2A in 17 games. More alarming is the fact he has a minus-17 rating in that span.  Mittelstadt is signed to a contract that pays him $5.75 million against the cap and doesn’t expire until the end of the 2026-27 season. 

Defencemen

Assuming McAvoy and Lindholm rehab their injuries and report to training camp healthy and on time in the fall, the Bruins are in a decent spot on the blue line and have enough cap space to add a top four defenceman in free agency this summer. They have flexibility already knowing their returning defence group looks like this:

Hampus Lindholm - Charlie McAvoy

Mason Lohrei - Andrew Peeke

Nikita Zadorov - Henri Jokiharju

Zadorov has played to his identity this year and averages nearly 21 minutes of ice time per game. Almost all of his shifts come against top six opponents at even strength and the penalty kill. Zadorov has been hard to play against. He’s been whistled for 143 penalty minutes, dished out 215 hits and blocked 105 shots. He also leads the Bruins with a plus-23 rating. 

On balance this group can hold their own, but targeting a player, or players, in free agency such as Neal Pionk (WPG), Aaron Ekblad (FLA), Vladislav Gavrikov (LA), or even Ryan Lindgren (COL) would upgrade their defence and put the team in a much better spot. 

Goaltending

I expect Swayman to bounce back and have a more consistent year with the distractions of his contract well behind him. The team needs him to reset his game, so his off-season preparation will be key to having a solid training camp and better start to next season. 

Back-up Korpisalo is signed through the 2027-28 season. 

Top prospects in the pipeline

The cupboards aren’t completely bare, but they aren’t exactly flush in Boston either. The Bruins have been chasing playoff success in recent years and sacrificed draft capital in their pursuit. 

• Forward Fabian Lysell was selected with the 21^st pick in 2021 and he just scored his first NHL goal versus the Pittsburgh Penguins two nights ago. Lysell is the kind of player who has to skate in the top nine forward group, and preferably the top six, to have an impact. He’s not a bottom-six checker. The Bruins simply haven’t had room for him at the top of their lineup in recent years, but he’s getting his chance now and the team will be hoping he takes another step towards an elevated role next fall. 

• Forward Matthew Poitras has been splitting time between the AHL and NHL this season. At the AHL level he has produced 16G-24A in 38 games and in the NHL he's contributed 1G-10A in 33 games. The 21-year-old still needs time to develop a consistent identity at the NHL level. 

• Former Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Fraser Minten was acquired in the trade that sent Carlo to the Leafs. Minten’s trajectory remains the same as it was with Toronto and he's destined to become a solid third-line NHL centre who might contribute some secondary scoring in time. However, he’s only just completing his first season at the pro level and needs time to develop further. 

• The Bruins' first-round pick from last year, 6-foot-6 forward Dean Letourneau, just completed his first year at the NCAA level playing for Boston College. Letourneau was drafted out of prep school (St. Andrew’s) and could have used a year in the USHL to further develop before arriving at BC. He's a long way from being a pro player and will require at least three seasons at the NCAA level developing. Letourneau was deployed in a secondary role this season and only contributed three assists in 36 college games. 

The last time the Bruins missed playoffs they went on to have a very successful draft:

It's vital for Boston to have another successful draft this June. Nobody in an organization wants to be in the position the Bruins are at the end of the regular season, but they have the opportunity to add more depth with the draft capital they have on the horizon. 

Here’s a look at the Bruins' draft board for the next three years:

Considering the scouting staff has only had three first-round and two second-round pick over the past six draft cycles, the group must be excited to have nine of those slots in the next three drafts. 

Cap space and expiring contracts

As of today, the Bruins are dealing from a position of strength when it comes to the flexibility they have to re-sign their own free agents or add to the roster via unrestricted free agency or trades. 

Here’s a look at some of the Bruins' key roster players in need of a new contract this off-season. Keep in mind the team is on track to have about $27 million in off-season salary cap space with the cap rising to $95.5 million.

Overall outlook

After the Bruins missed the playoffs in 2016, they reset their team and rebounded the following season to finish third in the Atlantic Division with a record of 44-31-7. They lost in the first-round of playoffs that spring to the Ottawa Senators in six games, but in another two years they were back in the Stanley Cup Final. 

It’s going to take time for the Bruins to rebuild some organizational depth and they must produce better results in all key categories next season if they're going to have any sort of bounce back.

The stats below, showing a team that wasn't particularly great at anything, don't lie. But this isn't a complete disaster of a situation. If the Bruins can find a way to re-sign their own priority players and make a splash in free agency by hopefully adding a top-six forward and second pair defenceman they should put themselves in a position to contend for a playoff spot again next season.