Scout's Analysis: Analyzing how Robertson, Pacioretty fit with Leafs

There was a sequence in Thursday night’s Leafs game versus Detroit that caught my attention. It occurred in the back half of the third period.

Toronto was leading the game 1-0 at the time and Nick Robertson skated to assist on the back check, impeding Wings forward Alex DeBrincat’s lane to and opportunity at the Leafs' net. As the play turned around and exited Toronto's zone, Robertson jumped up ice as the puck got to Max Pacioretty’s stick in the neutral zone. The play quickly turned into a 2-on-1 rush chance for Toronto. Pacioretty sauced a pass to Roberston in motion and Robertson slid the puck past Detroit goaltender Cam Talbot.

Here's the clip, with Robertson and DeBrincat starting at the bottom of the screen.

Two things stood out for me…

• First was the fact Robertson travelled the full 200-foot length of the ice three times. He started off looking for offence, back-checked to provide defensive assistance, and ended with an insurance marker in Toronto's 2-0 victory.

• Second was how the veteran Pacioretty reacted to Roberston’s tuck. He barely celebrated, which doesn't mean much in the pre-season, but the irony of the moment wasn’t lost on me. Pacioretty and Robertson are, after all, in a battle for one of the top nine forward positions on the final roster.

I’ve been conflicted when trying to forecast Robertson’s potential role with the Leafs, especially given the way new head coach Craig Berube wants his team to play.

Conversely, I was curious to see how Pacioretty’s fitness and pace looked and what possible fit he could have with the team.

I’m open to debating the merits of what I’m about to present, but here are my pre-season conclusions of these two players, with on more pre-season game on Toronto's schedule against Montreal this weekend.

Is Robertson a more complete player today?

Calling him a 'complete player' might be a bit rich, but there’s no doubt Robertson is playing the game with more detail on and off the puck these days. He’s always been a prospect who played a darting/quick game offensively, but lacked the required effort defensively.

Here are some examples of the good and not so good from Robertson last season:

In the first clip Robertson ends up on the wrong side of his check, New York Islanders forward Matt Barzal. From the outset Robertson’s caught watching the puck and losing track of what’s developing around him. At the end of the sequence, he stops moving his feet. Barzal strides through the slot and scores for the Islanders as Robertson sits out of position and watches his check head to the net.

The second example of something not so good occurred in the playoffs versus Boston. Robertson, again, is left watching the puck in the offensive zone and never takes his eyes off it as the play travels below his defensive goal line. He failed to identify Trent Frederic until the Boston forward was literally standing beside him and firing the puck into Toronto’s net.

But on the other side, there is no doubt Robertson is an explosive forward off the rush. He pushes opponents off their blue line when he enters the offensive zone with a full head of steam. He’s scored five goals in the pre-season for Toronto, picking up where he left off at the end of regular season last year in this game versus Detroit:

The bottom line is Robertson can score goals and play fast. He’s tenacious tracking the puck in the offensive zone trying to create turnovers. We know this about him.

But, as witnessed in the first clip where he tracked back to defend DeBrincat and finished the sequence by scoring a goal, Robertson is showing glimpses this pre-season that he's learning to play with at least some more detail in all three zones. It's an important step for him to take in his development right now.

The Leafs couldn’t be happier with the way Robertson’s pre-season has gone. He’s only making $875,000 so he's affordable and has shown enough to earn a job amongst Toronto's top-nine forwards.

I’m already eating crow in how I projected Robertson’s role on the Leafs roster to start the season. I didn’t believe it was part of his DNA to provide the defensive awareness and relentless three zone compete that he has so far displayed.

I’m now asking myself if there’s a path to a top six role for Robertson to start the season. Whether he could keep a role like that for the long haul is a discussion for another day as he would have to continue to prove he is capable in regular season action.

Where does Pacioretty fit?

I undertand why the Leafs offered tryouts to some veteran players this fall. The reality for the organization is that it lacks depth in the minors. They weren’t sure what version of Robertson would show up in camp, so they did the prudent thing by bringing in Max Pacioretty and Steven Lorentz – among others.

Pacioretty has suffered through some terrible injury luck the past couple seasons. Between Covid and two Achilles injuries he hasn’t participated in a full training camp in four years. At this stage of his career, the 35-year-old looks about as good as he can.

But is that enough?

It’s hard to ignore the fact Pacioretty only produced 4G-19A in 47 games last season with Washington, and that two of those goals came on the power play. He was also a minus-14 player who averaged 14:26 of ice time, which came at even strength and the power play.

Pacioretty doesn’t lack for hockey sense. Before he ran into injury issues, he had long proven that he understands the commitment required to defend responsibly. The issue he has now is being able to get from Point A to Point B quickly and effectively enough.

Here are a couple of examples from last year in Washington that show a developing weakness in his game. Pacioretty is in the area defensively, but not really covering opponents or taking away space appropriately:

To be fair, Pacioretty does look leaner and noticeably quicker at Leafs camp. He’s made some plays in open ice, like his pass to Robertson on the second Leafs goal Thursday night, and been more involved in the play in all three zones.

Here’s an example of one of Pacioretty’s best all-around shifts from the pre-season. He assists defensively, moves the puck up ice in motion, attempts to extend the play in the offensive zone, regroups in the neutral zone, tracks back to assist defensively again, and nearly gets sprung for a chance late in his shift.

When Pacioretty isn’t providing offence, he needs to be relied upon to provide the kind of detail he showed in this shift.

Pacioretty has produced his share of offence this pre-season (2G-3A). His two assists versus Detroit Thursday night were certainly more noteworthy than his three-point effort versus a very young Ottawa Senators lineup in his first pre-season tilt. I felt he was very average in the other game he played against Montreal on September 26.

Another couple of noteworthy statistics for Pacioretty include hits and shot blocks. He played his fastest in the game versus Ottawa and finished with three hits in addition to his two goals and one assist (he also had six shots on goal that night). In his last two games he has been credited with four shots, two hits and one shot block in total.

It feels to me like Pacioretty might provide some streaky offence at times if the Leafs decide to sign him off his PTO. But it’s fair to expect his pace and overall impact will very likely range over the course of a full season. I don’t foresee the Leafs being able to dress Pacioretty every night. He could be a real candidate for “load management” in the regular season.

Who earned a roster spot between Robertson and Pacioretty?

Nick Robertson.

Roberston is younger, quicker, and has more offensive upside than Pacioretty at this point. In the pre-season, Robertson has also shown that perhaps he can be counted on to be more reliable defensively in 2024-25. And, like I mentioned earlier, his contract is very affordable.

It will be a challenge for Toronto to find enough ice time for Robertson. He has to play in the top-nine because he isn’t a fourth line type of player. He’s not a checker. But it’s really up to Robertson to continue to earn the trust of the coaching staff. If he plays the way he has in the pre-season he will be rewarded.

The bottom line for me is players like Steven Lorentz (PTO), Connor Dewar, Bobby McMann, and even David Kampf have more value in the bottom six forward group than Pacioretty does.

Pacioretty is a “nice to have”, not a “need to have” player at this stage of his career. He’s enjoyed a long run at the NHL level and is a proven leader and a solid pro, but Toronto has gone down this road before with older veteran players and I don’t see them being a better team by signing Pacioretty out of training camp. Robertson has beat him out for a job in the top nine forward group and Pacioretty isn’t programmed to play the role of a fourth-line checker either.

Whether it's trading someone else to make room for both of these players, or choosing some other route, how GM Brad Treliving and his management group navigate their decision making to get under the salary cap by next Monday’s roster deadline is going to be very interesting.