Scout's Analysis: Comparing how leagues around the world develop NHL prospects

There was a time when Canada dominated the landscape in terms of prospects who eventually became NHL players. And while Canada still provides the highest number of rostered players, the gap has closed considerably over the years.

Today, scouting directors are required to strategize a schedule with their staff over a vast territory and multiple countries.

Development models in the United States, Sweden and Finland have resulted in high-end prospects. Other countries like Russia, Germany, Switzerland, Slovakia, and Czechia also present priority players who need to be viewed live to be thoroughly evaluated.

Denmark, Belarus, and Austria have also landed on the map as their models have taken hold and started to create NHL-quality prospects.

The 2023 NHL Draft has the potential to go down as one of the most productive prospect groups in several years, and so it's imperative to thoroughly cover off all the key areas around the world to take advantage of this crop of players.

Ahead of my colleague Sam Cosentino presenting his October draft rankings this week here is a look at how NHL teams may be thinking about approaching how they scout various leagues around the world.

SWEDEN

The Swedish Hockey League (SHL) is one of the best pro leagues in the world outside of the NHL.

I’ve concluded, over the years, that the SHL falls in line with the American Hockey League in terms of structure, competition, and overall preparation for developing prospects before they arrive in the NHL. The Swedish second division, Allsvenskan, has produced some quality NHL draft picks over the years as well. Current Vancouver Canuck Elias Pettersson suited up for Timra in his draft year. After being selected by the Canucks, Pettersson played one year in the SHL for Vaxjo before arriving in Vancouver. Both leagues contributed greatly to his development.

Several big-name prospects have arrived from Sweden over the years. The model in Sweden is unique. It involves a club system that promotes growth on and off the ice.

Cam Abbott is the general manager of Rogle in the SHL. His twin brother Chris serves at the head coach.

Marco Kasper, a Detroit Red Wings first round pick in 2022, is currently developing under their watch.

“The model in Sweden is unique” says Cam Abbott. “We have a system over here that promotes community within our academy. Players have access to seemingly unlimited amount of ice time. At Rogle our players are invited into our system at a young age and need to be mature. Some of the players on our J16 teams are living away from home for the first time.

"Our system is different than North America. The players are living in their own apartments (or flats) not with billet families. They learn to cook, do their own laundry, train properly and manage their time accordingly so they can keep up with their schooling.

“There aren’t tryouts in our club system. Every player has a place to play according to their development path and can move up and down within our system as required. The goal is to develop as many young players as possible and place them on our SHL team.

"We need to win at the highest level, like all pro clubs, so the fact we are currently developing between seven and nine players between the ages of 18-22 is something we take great pride in.”

(Note: Pettersson was a member of the Timra club system from 2014-2017)

FINLAND

For years I had the personal pleasure of working with Jari Kekalainen when he was the Director of European Scouting for the Florida Panthers. The Kekalainen brothers are widely respected in NHL circles. Jarmo Kekalainen is the general manager of the Columbus Blue Jackets, of course. And Janne Kekalainen has been a staple in the Nashville Predators scouting department for more than 20 years.

Jari joined the scouting staff in Winnipeg this past off-season. He describes the model in Finland much the same way Abbott described how players develop in Sweden.

“Sometime around 2006 the Finnish Ice Hockey Federation invited senior hockey people to a summit. The goal was simple. The Federation wanted to come up with a structure to develop players and promote them worldwide.

“In Finland our best athletes want to be hockey players, but we weren’t doing a good enough job of teaching skills. We have improved our skill coaching.

“Our club systems do not have tryouts. We place players at the right level, but don’t hold them back during the season. If a player is thriving at the J18 level he will get a chance at the J20 level. If the player is really playing well he might even see ice time in our pro league Liiga. All of the stops along the way take place in the same club system.

“For a country the size of Finland we are developing a lot of NHL talent compared to our population"

Jari pushed us to draft Aleksander Barkov second overall at the 2013 draft in New Jersey.

The Finns have been a force on the international stage for the past several years. In 2022 alone their Men’s team won Gold at the World Championships and their U20 Team won Silver at the World Junior Championships.

The best players from Finland have become stars in the NHL. Players like Barkov (FLA), Patrik Laine (CBJ), Mikko Rantanen (COL) and Sebastian Aho (CAR) benefited from developing within the Finnish club system. They are elite talents who didn’t require spending a ton of time playing in Liiga before coming to North America.

In my opinion Liiga is an excellent league for players to develop. Overall, however, it is a notch below the SHL and the AHL in terms of depth. It can be a bit misleading in some categories. For example: Former Vancouver Canuck Juho Lammikko averaged nearly a point per game in Liiga playing for Karpat, but his game in North America is that of a depth checker and penalty killer --- not a scorer.

UNITED STATES

The USA is closing the gap on Canada for the most rostered NHL players.

There was a time when the scouting community would make their way to specific territories in Massachusetts and Minnesota to conduct the majority of their American scouting.

No longer is that the case. The hockey landscape in America is now flush with talent from coast to coast.

The game has taken hold in former non-traditional states like California, Texas and Arizona. The exposure NHL teams have provided has led to more interest in the game at the grass roots level, but the USA Hockey Development Model has provided structure at all development levels.

The college hockey landscape is spreading west. Arizona State has an established Division One program that is playing out of a new facility this year: Mullett Arena, which the NHL Coyotes are sharing.

Players like Auston Matthews hale from Arizona. The development model does have a runway in the western USA however, and most elite players end up moving east to play for the National Team Program or one of the premier junior leagues.

The USHL and NAHL make up the top tier junior leagues, with the USHL being considered the top development league in the USA. The USHL is a feeder league for college, and sometimes major junior, programs. The league provides elite coaching, facilities and competition. Players improve in the USHL.

Minnesota High School and New England Prep hockey have been providing NHL prospects for decades.

One of the most complete development programs in all of hockey is located in Plymouth, Michigan. The USNTDP has recently produced elite talents like Matthews, Jack Eichel, and the Hughes brothers – Jack and Quinn.

At the 2022 draft in Montreal the USNTDP had six players selected in the first round. In 2019, the program had eight players taken in the first round. To have that many prospects come from one team speaks to how elite their model has become over the years.

CANADA

Major junior hockey in Canada continues to lead the way, worldwide, in terms of the number of players selected yearly at the NHL draft.

The CHL has three leagues under its umbrella. The Western Hockey League (WHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL) and Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL).

At the draft in Montreal 82 players from the CHL were selected by NHL clubs.

NHL teams have a two-year window to make a decision on whether or not to sign the prospects they drafted out of the CHL (versus up to four for NCAA prospects). It remains my opinion that the CHL develops more North American pros than any other league in the world. Having said that, the CHL is still a junior circuit. Elite players around the world, at any level, require attention from scouts. There cannot be any bias in the process.

RUSSIA

Year over year, Russia produces elite players with NHL upside.

Russians love hockey and they have long been producing some highly skilled players. Managing Russian draft picks does come with its challenges, however.

The Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) is Russia’s top pro league. There is no question the quality of players in that league is, at least, equal to the SHL and better than other European pro leagues.

Draft eligible prospects do not have a history of playing significant minutes in the KHL, though. In fact, there are some nights a prospect will only see two or three shifts total. The KHL requires more prospect projection than most leagues overall.

The KHL is better suited to identify older players who are on expiring contracts that have displayed immediate NHL impact potential (e.g. Andrei Kuzmenko, Vancouver Canucks).

The Russian VHL is their second division pro league. It is not uncommon for a draft eligible player to land in the VHL and stand out with his ability. The league serves a purpose. I compare the VHL to the ECHL in North America.

The MHL is the Russian version of Major Junior Hockey. If the player is an elite talent, he is likely to produce at a high level in the MHL. That’s not to say the MHL is an easy league, but it’s a step down from Major Junior and College hockey. Most USHL teams would be very competitive in the MHL.

The biggest risk in drafting, and trying to develop, Russian players is the fact they are generally under contract with a KHL team. It can be difficult to pry players away from their teams in Russia, even when their contracts are expiring. In some cases, there is significant pressure applied to players from team management to remain in Russia.

If the player is determined, has a solid agent, and has been skating with a reputable organization, the process of getting them to North America can be relatively seamless. Having all three of those variables come together at the same time has proven to be difficult for some teams.

Something I have witnessed over the years is the Russian Federation going all-in at international events. They are driven for success on the world stage and bring their best players to almost every tournament. It’s when the players return to the club system where they become harder to scout. They are sometimes buried in that system despite being showcased internationally.

GERMANY

The development model in Germany has been on the rise.

The Deutsche Eishockey Liga, DEL, is the top league in the country. They, too, operate within a club system that leads to players graduating to their top pro league. Upper tier teams from the DEL can easily compete with teams from the SHL, Liiga, KHL, and the AHL.

Ottawa Senators forward Tim Stutzle is an example of a player who worked his way through Mannheim’s development system. He skated at the J20 level for Jungadler Mannheim before graduating to DEL team Adler Mannheim. It’s also worth noting he had significant impact on the world stage at the U17-U18-U20 levels before being selected by Ottawa.

Countries like Switzerland, Czechia and Slovakia also consistently produce NHL prospects via their National Team Programs or Elite Pro Leagues.

This past draft is a glowing example of how a federation, in this case Slovakia, witnessed its hard work re-organizing their development model result in the first two players being selected in the draft: Juraj Slafkovsky and Simon Nemec.

SCOUTING DIRECTOR'S SCHEDULE

Long-time Winnipeg Jets Director of Amateur Scouting Mark Hillier has earned his status with airlines and hotels around the world.

“Maybe I’m taking a different perspective on this, but with 32 teams in the NHL and an increase in pressure, and need, to find young players through the draft you must be willing and open to finding players anywhere in the world. There have been certain countries that have always produced players. Some countries are trending up and down in recent years, but as a scouting director you have to keep an open mind and be open to taking the best players – no matter where they are from – to stay competitive. If you are biased to any area you will quickly be left behind.

“I try to split my time between North America and Europe. I usually attend three or four tournaments a year in Europe and then travel two or three other times to view players in league play. The areas depend on where the best prospects are playing and what draft picks you have.”