Scout's Analysis: Early observations around the 10-game mark of the NHL season

With some NHL teams hitting the 10-game mark of their schedule, and others hovering close to it, it’s a good time to reflect on some observations around the league and beyond.

I prefer to make conclusions over an extended period of time. If a player is thrust into unchartered waters via a new role, on the penalty kill for example, a two-game weekend of positive results doesn’t mean he’s proficient in that place. If he proves, over a 10-game segment, that he’s capable I become a believer and adjust his scouting report accordingly.

Conversely, a five-game scoring slump from a player who is an historically high-end point producer doesn’t mean he’s forgotten how to score. But if he remains “stuck” after 10 games, and especially after 20 games, we have a noticeable issue on our hands and have to make note of the potential reasons why.

Here are some of my random observations early this season:

OTTAWA'S CONTENDER FOR THE CALDER TROPHY

At the start of the season Connor Bedard, Logan Cooley, Luke Hughes and Adam Fantilli were highlighted as players who would contend for rookie of the year in 2023-24. Some other names have, already, played their way into the conversation.

Ottawa Senators forward Ridly Greig is a bit of a throwback. He has some Darcy Tucker to his game. He’s not the biggest, strongest, or heaviest player in the league but he doesn’t shy away from engaging in all the hard areas of the ice. He has a role, net front, on the power play. He extends plays along the wall and he's always involved.

Greig leads all rookies with seven points in eight games. He’s averaging 15:49 TOI and being deployed in all situations. He’s been credited with 14 hits, which is only three less than Brady Tkachuk (who always seems like he’s in the middle of everything as well). When Greig isn’t scoring, he’s playing the game with detail and awareness. He’s reliable off the puck and committed defensively. Greig leads the Senators with a plus-7 rating.

Here’s a clip of Greig setting up shop on the Senators' power play. He battles for position early in the sequence then ends up alone in the Pittsburgh Penguins crease. Claude Giroux makes a classy play from the flank, puts the puck in the right area for Greig, who finishes with a nifty tip goal.

AHEAD OF SCHEDULE?

One of the nice stories early on has been the play of the Anaheim Ducks, who are currently riding a five-game winning streak. They finished their first 10-game segment with a record of 6-4-0.

Last year, Anaheim averaged 2.54 goals for and 4.12 goals against. So far this season they are averaging 3.30 goals for and 3.00 goal against. That’s a massive swing in a positive direction.

The Ducks didn’t have a single “plus” player on their roster (who played at least 20 games) last season and forward Ryan Strome took home the “green jacket” with an awful looking minus-30.

Through 10 games in 2023-24, however, Anaheim only has two players with a minus rating, Trevor Zegras at minus-2 and Brett Leason at minus-1.

Frank Vatrano is an early season favourite for the NHL's version of the "Cy Young Award” with nine goals and one assist (9-1). More impressive to me, however, is the fact Vatrano is a plus-7. He finished second to Strome last year with a minus-29 rating.

New Ducks head coach Greg Cronin and his staff have clearly had a massive impact on the way the players are preparing and buying in to their team game overall.

RADKO THE WRECKING BALL

One last observation from the Ducks.

Toronto Maple Leaf fans know all too well the impact Radko Gudas had for the Florida Panthers last season in playoffs. Now a Duck, Gudas has picked up exactly where he left off.

Gudas only knows how to play the game one way. Everyone on the Ducks has to feel three inches taller and 20 pounds heavier knowing Gudas has their back when he’s on the ice. Through his first 10 games as a Duck, Gudas has averaged 18:16 of ice time per game – 14:30 at even strength and 3:41 on the penalty kill. He’s contributed one goal, one assist, 26 penalty minutes, is a plus-5, and he's been credited with 26 hits and 23 blocked shots.

THE HARD TO HANDLE KINGS

The LA Kings came into Toronto and made their presence known. The Kings have the ability to physically wear down their opponents. The way they work off the cycle and protect the puck down low in the offensive zone is something to behold.

Consider the size of some of their players:

• Quinton Byfield (6-foot-5, 225 pounds)                 
• Adrian Kempe (6-foot-2, 200 pounds)       
• Vladislav Gavrikov (6-foot-3, 220 pounds)
• Pierre Luc-Dubois (6-foot-4, 225 pounds)             
• Anze Kopitar (6-foot-3, 225 pounds)         
• Matt Roy (6-foot-2, 210 pounds)
• Arthur Kaliyev (6-foot-2, 210 pounds)  
• Andreas Englund (6-foot-4, 200 pounds)   

The Kings also have a nice mix of smaller, darting players who add a layer of speed and finesse. Kevin Fiala (6-foot, 205 pounds) is the Kings' leading scorer (one goal, 11 assists). Former Leafs forward Trevor Moore (5-foot-11, 195 pounds) is fourth in Kings scoring with five goals and three assists. They are examples of players who are smaller in stature, but carry weight, strength and play the game quick and fast.

THE CANUCKS MAY HAVE FOUND A GEM AT THE 2023 DRAFT

The Vancouver Canucks selected Kitchener Rangers defenceman Hunter Brzustewicz in the third round (75^th overall) of the NHL draft this past June in Nashville. The 6-foot, 188-pound, right-shot defender is off to a ridiculous start to his OHL season, with five goals and 20 assists in his first 13 games.

Bruzustewicz leans distributor more than shooter. He’s proving to be elusive on the offensive blue line, making plays through seams and extending posessions by winning 50/50 pucks along the wall when pinching down.

Bruzstewicz is the leading scorer in the OHL, but he’s also playing with more detail defensively. I’m seen growth in his overall understanding of how to better contain opponents and not over-extend himself (go out of his way) with his reads. He is showing much more poise when defending between the dots and down to his goal line.

THE RUBLE REPORT

Philadelphia Flyers prospect Matvei Michkov (seventh overall in 2023) continues to play at a high level for HK Sochi in the KHL, where he’s second in team scoring with seven goals and eight assists 17 games. Two of his goals have come on the power play and he also has two game-winning goals.

Another player who might be worth the wait is Winnipeg Jets prospect Dimitry Rashevsky (fifth round, 146th overall, in 2021). It’s difficult to get updated heights and weights on players from the KHL, but Rashevsky is approximately 6-foot-1, 170 pounds. He has significant offensive upside and could end up being a top six NHL forward.

I recognize the Jets would like to have the player in North America, and it’s a delicate process. The bottom line is Rashevsky is a valuable asset. The Jets have a choice to either wait on the player and see if he eventually wants to come to the NHL, or use him as a sweetener in a deal down the line.

Here's a sample of how Rashevsky has been impacting games, playing for Dynamo Moscow, in the KHL.

He has 12 goals and nine assists in 24 games, with a plus-13 rating.