Scout’s Analysis: Four players with the most to prove in 4 Nations Face-Off final

Watching a player perform under the brightest lights is often the truest test of his ability.

When monitoring how players are progressing during the draft and development phase, teams keep close tabs on how each prospect reacts in high-leverage games.

Does he wilt under pressure? Does he take his game to another level and impact the outcome in a positive way for his team? If he’s a goaltender, is he able to provide timely saves and not allow a soft goal that leads to his group chasing the game?

Almost every NHL player has been thrust into potentially uncomfortable in-game situations before they arrive in the best league in the world. They have learned what it takes to win major junior, college, European pro and minor pro championships somewhere along the way.

The 4 Nations Face-Off championship game between Canada and the U.S. has several players, on both sides, champing at the bit to prove they have what it takes to win a tournament like this.

Here’s a list of players who may have the most to prove:

Connor Hellebuyck

Hellebuyck is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and, unless his game falls off a cliff, looks poised to win the award a second straight year and for the third time in his career.

Hellebuyck has been historically strong in the regular season for the Winnipeg Jets, but his playoff results have been substandard. The 31-year-old has a career 2.58 goals-against average and .917 save percentage between games one and 82. His stats this season are off-the-charts great (2.06/.925).

But over the past two playoffs, his record is 2-8 with a 4.34 GAA and .875 save percentage.

Hellebuyck allowed a soft goal from long range to start the tournament against Finland, but he’s been nearly perfect since, stopping 45 of the next 46 shots he faced. He’s won both of his starts and sports a ridiculous .957 save percentage.

It’s safe to say Hellebuyck is highly motivated to prove he can win on the biggest stage. Now, there’s pressure on him to provide top-tier goaltending in a must-win game. A victory over Canada would give him a feeling of accomplishment, and confidence, that he can take back to Winnipeg as it prepares for a potentially long playoff run this spring.

Auston Matthews

Matthews has been dealing with nagging injuries for much of the season and missed 15 games as a result. Even if he plays every game the rest of the way, his 67 regular-season appearances would represent the third-lowest mark of his career. The injury woes have definitely impacted his offensive output — specifically goal-scoring. Matthews must score 15 times in the team's remaining 27 games to surpass his career-low of 34 goals from the 2017-18 season. He was held out of Team USA’s final round-robin game against Sweden due to some soreness.

But the Team USA captain is surrounded by some uber-competitive teammates who will be expecting him to fight through whatever's ailing him and contribute in whatever way he can to assist the team in victory. Matthews has played four Game 7s in his career with the Maple Leafs and come away with zero victories. His teammate, Jack Eichel, said the game against Canada is going to be the biggest game of his career, despite the fact he has won a Stanley Cup with the Vegas Golden Knights. Statements like Eichel’s confirm how important this game is to the Americans.

Matthews was chosen to be the captain and lead the group to victory. It will be interesting to see how he responds and what he takes away from the experience. If he’s not scoring goals, his off-the-puck effort and defensive detail (what I describe as his “B” game) must be on time.

Mitch Marner

It’s impossible for me to not include Marner in the same category as Matthews. Marner isn’t Canada's captain — and to be fair, he did score a massive overtime goal against Sweden in the first game of the tournament — but he needs to show he can handle the pressure of this game and have a positive impact. He’s only registered three shots on net over the first three games and hasn’t made plays in traffic or gotten to the inside offensively.

Marner started the tournament skating alongside Connor McDavid on the top line, but the two players didn’t gel and Marner now finds himself on the third line with Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. However, there’s no shame in skating with the two Tampa Bay forwards — if anything, it speaks to Marner's skillset. He has the ability, and commitment, to take care of his zone defensively and kill penalties when he isn’t producing offence.

Yet Marner has not enjoyed playoff success in a Maple Leafs uniform. The pending unrestricted free agent already makes $900,000 more than Finland captain and Stanley Cup champion Aleksander Barkov. He gets paid $1.4 million more than Stanley Cup champion Brayden Point of the Tampa Bay Lightning. And those comparisons are only going to bubble up more and more when he signs his next contract.

At the 4 Nations, Marner’s ice time has trended down. He logged the second-fewest minutes (12:46) of any skater for Canada in its elimination game against Finland. If he’s going to be paid like one of the top-10 players in the NHL this off-season, he has an opportunity Thursday to put his best skate forward and prove why onlookers should believe in his game in a hostile/high-leverage environment.

Jordan Binnington

Binnington was between the pipes for the St Louis Blues when they defeated the Boston Bruins in Game 7 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final … at the same arena where he'll look to lead Canada past the U.S. on Thursday. He’s familiar with the hostile environment and has the experience to fall back on. Canada has the second-best goaltender on the ice against the Americans, but Binnington at least holds the experience advantage over Hellebuyck.

It’s impossible to imagine Binnington wasn’t aware of the fact that most of the hockey industry identified Canada’s goaltending as the weakest of four teams at the tournament outset.

Here’s a statistical comparison between Hellebuyck and Binnington heading into the final:

Binnington is a feisty competitor who hasn’t allowed the emotional side of his game to get the better of him in his first three starts despite some uneven moments. If he provides the steady goaltending required to win a tournament like the 4 Nations, in Boston no less, he will have earned the right to stare into the cameras post-game and scold all of those who doubted his role on this team.