Scout's Analysis: How the Edmonton Oilers should approach the trade deadline

What a roller coaster ride the Edmonton Oilers' season has been so far. They started 3-9-1 under former coach Jay Woodcroft but, as of Tuesday, now sit with a record of 30-17-1. They are 27-8 under new bench boss Kris Knoblauch, which includes a 16-game winning streak.

As we creep closer to the NHL trade deadline, it’s safe to say the Oilers are “all in” this season. Their overall record is likely still a bit under where they projected it would be at this time of year, but they are clearly a contending outfit as we enter the stretch drive of the season.

What should the Oilers look to add to their roster in the coming weeks? Do they have any glaring deficiencies in their lineup? What does their draft capital look like? Who could the Oilers afford to move in an attempt to upgrade their roster? And how do they fit any move into their salary cap situation?

Here’s a deep dive into the Edmonton Oilers, how they could approach the trade deadline and what the cost might be to acquire potential trade targets:

FORWARD OBSERVATIONS

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to determine the Oilers have some of the most elite forwards in the universe on their roster. The group is led by Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

• Evander Kane has scored 18 goals and leads the entire team with 149 hits.

• Ryan McLeod (50 per cent) and Derek Ryan (56 per cent) lead the way in face-off percentage in the bottom six forward group.

• I’d like to see more balance in the forward group overall. There is a pretty significant drop off offensively after we get past Kane, the fifth-highest point-getter among the forwards.

• A forward who can produce offence and play with some jam in the trenches would be an ideal target in my opinion. Such a player would balance out the lines and provide a secondary physical dimension outside of Kane.

The Oilers can run and gun with any team in the NHL and are one of the most difficult teams to defend in the entire league. But playoff games can be won or lost with an extra faceoff win. More battle in the hard areas of the ice is essential at the hardest time of the year. Adding a player with that kind of DNA would be beneficial.

• If not that, the other strategy they could consider would be to add a proven top-six, preferably playoff game tested, scoring forward. Selfishly I would look to add a forward who has skated on the top line of their roster. The cost would be astronomical, but if the Oilers are “all in” they have to be willing to spend assets.  

DEFENCE OBSERVATIONS

Edmonton is a team that divides its defence into defined categories. Their time on ice reflects the team’s strategy and approach.

• This group has been generally solid this season and play to their strengths.

• There are nights I would like to see more urgency out of Evan Bouchard defensively, or for Darnell Nurse to keep things more simple. But every team has its moments with players who log the most minutes. The law of averages equals out at times. Mistakes are bound to happen when defencemen are tasked with top-of-the-lineup matchups and heavy ice time.

• I do think the Oilers are going to rely on at least one more defenceman if they are going to go on a deep playoff run. Teams generally go through seven, sometimes eight, defencemen over the course of their journey to the Stanley Cup.

• This is where I’m asking myself if Philip Broberg is the best option for Edmonton as its seventh defenceman come playoffs? Or would they be better off adding another layer on the back end through trade at the deadline?

• If the Oilers do add to the blue line my wish list would include a player who can matchup against middle-six forwards, slot into one of the penalty-killing units, and add some grit and growl to the back end. If he isn’t a hammer physically, I would definitely like to add a proficient shot blocker.

GOALTENDING OBSERVATIONS

The Oilers' goaltending has also been a tale of two seasons built into one.

• Stuart Skinner’s first 18 starts resulted in an .878 save percentage, but his next 18 starts have provided a .925 save percentage. His massive improvement is a big reason why the Oilers had their long winning streak. He’s providing solid, reliable goaltending with a 2.45 GAA on the season; the kind of netminding Edmonton will need come playoffs.

• Veteran backup Calvin Pickard has posted a 2.42 GAA and a .912 save percentage and has given the Oilers exactly what they need when Skinner needs a night off.

• Jack Campbell's demotion to the AHL, after a very tough start to the season, has been simmering along. By all accounts he has generally been trending in a positive direction in recent weeks playing for Bakersfield.

Campbell’s contract is impossible to trade with a $5 million AAV through the 2026-27 season. The contract also carries a 10-team no-trade clause.

Having Campbell’s contract buried in the minors is costing the Oilers $3.85 million, instead of $5 million to have him on their roster. It’s not ideal. The team is obviously hoping Campbell finds his form before the end of the season and can be relied upon in case of injury.

TRADE DEADLINE STRATEGY

I have to admit I’m torn about what the Oilers need most at the trade deadline out of these options. But we are definitely approaching this with a win-now mindset. They have put the league on notice that they have their sights set on a Stanley Cup and anything else would be considered below standard this season.

With that in mind, here are some trade considerations that could further upgrade Edmonton's roster:

Jake Guentzel, F, Pittsburgh Penguins

Adding Guentzel would fill a top six role for the Oilers and help balance out their lines. He would take Corey Perry's place on the second line.

Edmonton’s forward lines could look like this if they added Guentzel:

Nugent-Hopkins - McDavid - Hyman
Guentzel - Draisaitl - Kane    
Foegele - McLeod - Holloway
Ryan - Janmark - Perry
Extras: Gagner, Brown, Hamblin

Guentzel is a proven scorer who has thrived playing alongside Sidney Crosby, spending the bulk of his career riding shotgun with one of the most elite centres in the history of the game and producing.

So far this year Guentzel has scored 22 goals and 29 assists in 49 games and averages nearly 21 minutes of ice time per game. All of his ice time comes at even strength and the power play. He’s responsible defensively for an offensive player and has a tidy plus-10 rating.

Guentzel won’t bring much in the way of physical push back. He’s an aggressive shooter who leads the Penguins with 182 shots on goal. One of the more positive statistics in Guentzel’s game is the fact he produces the bulk of his offence at even strength (18 goals, 20 assists).

The cost to acquire Guentzel, a pending unrestricted free agent carrying a contract with an AAV of $6 million, will be expensive but could also be worth the investment. It should be noted Guentzel has a 12-team no-trade list.

Edmonton trades: Philip Broberg, Connor Brown, 2024 first-round pick, 2024 sixth-round pick (NSH)

Pittsburgh trades: Jake Guentzel (and retains 50 per cent salary)

Adam Henrique, F, Anaheim Ducks

If not Guentzel the Oilers could look to Henrique, a veteran forward who traditionally plays the middle, but can also slot into the wing seamlessly. Henrique is used in all situations for the Ducks. He averages 17 minutes of ice time per game and has contributed 15 goals and 20 assists with a plus-1 rating. He's also won 54 per cent of his faceoffs.

Acquiring a player like Henrique wouldn’t be as sexy as adding Guentzel, but he would round out the Oilers' lineup in a variety of ways. He’s an upgrade on the second line and would slot into both special teams units. All things considered, Henrique is not that far off Guentzel’s production when you consider what he has to work with in Anaheim compared to Guentzel playing with Crosby.

A trade for Henrique should also be less costly for the Oilers compared to the Guentzel trade.

Henrique is a pending UFA with a $5.825 million AAV. He's also armed with a 10-team no trade list.

Edmonton trades: 2024 first-round pick, Connor Brown, 2024 sixth-round pick (NSH)

Anaheim trades: Adam Henrique (and retains 50 per cent salary)

This scenario would allow the Oilers to keep Broberg in the fold and possibly have him available as a depth option in case of injury for the playoffs.

Sean Walker, D, Scott Laughton, F, Philadelphia Flyers

My thinking behind this deal is, rather than focusing on one improvement, Edmonton could look at two things. In this move, they could upgrade on the blue line as well as add some more grit and secondary scoring to the forward group.

Edmonton trades: 2024 first-round pick, 2025 third-round pick, Cody Ceci, Connor Brown

Philadelphia trades: Scott Laughton, Sean Walker (and retains 50 per cent salary on Walker)

The Oilers will get more scoring from Walker. He’s more involved offensively than Ceci, skates better, transitions the play up ice more effectively, and doesn’t fall off defensively.

Walker, a pending UFA, has averaged close to 20 minutes of ice time this season and is used in all situations with Philadelphia (secondary power play). He’s contributed five goals and 14 assists and a responsible plus-8 rating. Walker’s also been credited with 59 hits and 78 shot blocks.

Laughton has another two years left on his current contract with a $3 million AAV. With the Ceci and Laughton contracts changing hands the Oilers would save $250,000 on their cap. Adding Brown to the mix saves the Oilers an additional $775,000.

If the Flyers would agree to absorb 50 per cent of Walker’s contract, it would save the Oilers an additional $1.325 million in deadline day space. Altogether Edmonton would still be left with $2.4 million to seek out further depth.

Spending what’s left

Would the Detroit Red Wings have interest in moving pending UFA Daniel Sprong by the deadline? If the answer if yes, the Oilers would have the cap room to add Sprong and his 14 goals and 19 assists to their lineup. I’m envisioning the cost to acquire Sprong being the Oilers' second round pick this June.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Everyone's heard rumours and speculation about the Oilers trying to fit Jake Guentzel into their roster. I understand the strategy and recognize he would balance out the top six forward group.

I’m more comfortable adding to the entire balance of the roster with the goal of making Edmonton harder to match up against. I want to provide as much depth as possible in all positions.

I believe the scenario I presented with Philadelphia, with the follow up target of a player like Sprong, would add more balance and resistance to the group.

The roster would end up looking like this:

Nugent-Hopkins - McDavid - Hyman
Kane - Draisaitl - Sprong
McLeod - Laughton - Perry
Ryan - Janmark - Foegele
Holloway, Gagner

Ekholm - Bouchard
Nurse - Walker
Kulak - Desharnais
Broberg

Recognizing that the above scenario would take a ton of work between three teams, my second choice would be the Henrique scenario.

That roster would look like this:

Nugent-Hopkins - McDavid - Hyman
Henrique - Draisaitl - Kane
Foegele - McLeod - Perry
Ryan - Janmark - Holloway
Gagner

Ekholm - Bouchard
Nurse - Ceci
Kulak - Desharnais
Broberg

The Oilers have a chance to go deep in the playoffs. They are a contending team again. I understand the delicate process involved in adding players at the deadline and the cost involved. The goal of this exercise wasn’t to upend all the good things that the Oilers have going for them. It’s a balanced look at the kind of brainstorming that goes on within an organization at this time of year.