Scout's Analysis: How the Leafs have earned a 2-1 series lead on Tampa

Through three games the Toronto Maple Leafs lead their series versus Tampa Bay, two games to one. Things didn’t start well in the series opener for the Leafs, but that game has faded into the past already.

Toronto has made some adjustments. Certain players have increased their role, while others have played exactly to their expected identity.

Here are some observations from the Leafs' overtime win in Game 3, and what it means going into Monday's Game 4:

MATTHEW KNIES CONTRIBUTING

Before he arrived in Toronto I was on record stating Matthew Knies could slot into a third or fourth line role, and be deployed on the second power-play unit. I also described him as a player who doesn’t have to score to contribute. He brings wide-ranging value to the Leafs lineup. He plays quick, finishes his checks, extends plays along the boards and below the goal line, and battles net front.

His style of play benefits his linemates and the entire group on the ice. He looks more comfortable by the minute. Knies skated just shy of 20 minutes in the Leafs' Game 3 overtime victory, so he's evolving in a pressure packed environment.

When breaking down Knies' game, overall I’m looking for examples of positive plays and ones he requires more detail. The attached clip provides both.

Summary of the sequence:

• Knies establishes proper positioning in the offensive zone above the play when the Leafs don’t have clear possession of the puck or control of the play.

• He back checks aggressively.

• He shows sound awareness in the defensive zone, taking away the slot and moving with his head on a swivel.

• One negative: slow reaction to Zach Bogosian keeping play alive along the boards.

• One positive: Knies jumps up ice following the chip out of the Leafs zone, easily out-races Bogosian and ends up with the puck on his stick for a zone entry. He makes a nice drop pass to Acciari in middle of the ice, Acciari scores and Knies has the first playoff assist of his career.

THE PLUS-MINUS DEBATE

One of the most debatable statistics is plus-minus and here’s an example of why the stat is so polarizing:

John Tavares has won 53 per cent of his face-offs so far in the series. He loses the draw I'll show below here, but watch him closely. The Leafs play man-on-man coverage in their zone and Tavares sticks with Steven Stamkos after he loses the face-off. He fronts his check and keeps him from getting open.

The breakdown in the play happens when the puck moves behind the net and Jake McCabe overplays the scenario by trying to apply a big hit on eventual goal scorer Darren Raddysh. All McCabe had to do was either make a play on the puck, or allow Raddysh to continue moving towards the corner. McCabe would have been better off positioning himself off Raddysh's right hip. Instead, he loses position altogether and ends up losing containment.

Raddysh scores, and Tavares is handed a minus for his solid effort.

Summary of the sequence:

• It’s Tavares' job to win defensive zone face-offs. He’s one of the best draw guys the Leafs have.

• Lost face-offs happen all game long. Teams practice how to defend off lost draws in the defensive zone. Tavares did his job after the loss, but others in the sequence did not.

THE GOOD AND THE NOT SO GOOD

Ilya Samsonov was strong in net for the Leafs in their overtime victory in Game 3 and he deserves credit for bouncing back from a poor performance to open the series. The Leafs have won two straight and Samsonov has elevated his game.

Game 4 is now a must win for the Lightning. I’m anticipating Samsonov will have to provide his best game of the series for the Leafs to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series.

When Samsonov is at his best, he tracks the play moving side to side without ending up outside his posts, or too high in his crease. He gets into trouble when he starts “swimming” around, lacks rebound control, or when his read/react tracking is off.

Here are some examples of the good:

And … Here is an example of the bad:

Summary:

• Positive: In the first clip Samsonov reads the play developing and moves laterally in time to square up and make a save on Nikita Kucherov.

• Positive: Also in the first clip (second highlight) Samsonov remains crease ready after a small scramble out in front of his net. His glove is in position, his chest is square to the puck and when it spills to Victor Hedman at the left side Samsonov reads and reacts and makes an athletic save moving from side to side.

• Negative: To be fair, the entire sequence on the Brandon Hagel goal is a bit of a tire fire for the Leafs in their zone, but my eyes were on Samsonov in the sequence. He loses sight of the puck behind his net , ends up out of position and flopping around, and deflects the puck into his own net from his stomach

Ilya Samsonov is 6-foot-3, 214 pounds and when he’s at his best he doesn’t overextend himself. He uses his size and quickness to make saves without losing his net. He’s been much better the past two games for the Leafs, but he still has his acrobatic moments. The Leafs are counting on him to continue to elevate and give them a chance to win Game 4, and beyond.

ANGLED SHOOT-INS

The Maple Leafs recognize Andrei Vasilevskiy is a goaltender who plays the puck very well. He has the ability to stop the puck behind his net on shoot-ins and outlet it up ice quickly and accurately. For this reason, I have noticed the Leafs directing pucks as far away from Vasilevskiy as possible on their shoot-ins.

Here are two examples:

Summary:

• Both shoot-ins are from one shift early in the first period of Game 3. Although the Leafs didn’t gain extended possession off either sequence, the Lightning weren’t afforded the opportunity to outlet the puck up ice quickly off Vasilevskiy's stick. The tactic is a safe, responsible play to make. It gives the Leafs' forwards a chance to get in behind the Tampa defenders and attempt to work plays off the cycle down low in the Lightning zone.

CHIP AND GO!

At every level, coaches preach making responsible plays from just inside the defensive and offensive blue lines. It’s imperative the Leafs don’t give the Lightning extended life in their own zone off poor decisions.

Watch the following clip closely. Acciari has clear control of the puck high in the Leafs zone. This is a prime example of the chaos that ensues when pucks aren’t promptly cleared from the defensive zone:

Summary:

• Acciari had Knies coming across the top of the blue line. All he had to do was chip the puck off the boards and the Leafs would have had a clean zone exit.

• By trying to make a stick to stick outlet in the middle of the ice, Acciari turned the puck over and Tampa hemmed the Leafs in their zone for an extra 30 seconds, forcing Samsonov to make a couple of big saves (including one up high through traffic).

GAME WITHIN A GAME

• Through three games the goaltending battle favours Toronto. Vasilevskiy has posted a 4.22 GAA and .853 save percentage, while Samsonov has a 3.70 GAA and .878 save percentage.

• Morgan Rielly has scored a goal and four assists. He’s a plus-5 and being used at even strength and the power play. Rielly is averaging 22:32 of ice time per game.

• Trade deadline acquisitions Jake McCabe, Luke Schenn, and Noel Acciari have combined for 47 hits and 12 blocked shots in the first three games.

• Auston Matthews was a much more responsible three zone player this season and he’s continuing the trend so far these playoffs. Matthews has scored a goal and four assists, averaged 20 minutes of ice time, and been credited with 11 hits and four blocked shots.

• Ryan O’Reilly was acquired by the Leafs for a variety of reasons, one of them being his knack for winning key face-offs. O’Reilly has won 61 per cent of his draws so far in the series.