Scout's Analysis: Maple Leafs reality check from a hockey operations perspective

My entire family were Toronto Maple Leafs fans in my youth. My father, like others in the Blue and White universe, desperately wants the team to win a Stanley Cup.

My loyalties have changed over my time in the NHL. Obviously working for Nashville and Florida over my career will do that.

In my current role as an analyst at Sportsnet, though, I have zero commitment to any one franchise in the league.

But I do have an opinion, and I’ve been on the inside of NHL hockey operations meetings for almost 20 years.

I apologize, in advance, to those of you who might feel frustrated after reading what I’m about to present, but there is a reality that has to be examined when discussing the current state of the Leafs.

Let’s get started:

CAPPED OUT AND MAXED OUT

The Maple Leafs are capped out. They have very little wiggle room to make a hockey trade.

Yes, they have received some relief recently with players like Jake Muzzin and Matt Murray going on LTIR, but you have to assume both players will return as you plan the future structure of the lineup. This isn’t the forum to debate if, or when, they come off LTIR.

Presenting even more of a challenge is the fact the Leafs cannot take on any more contracts. They currently have the maximum 50 players under contract.

DEALING FROM A POSITION OF WEAKNESS

NHL teams, generally, don’t have an appetite to assist other clubs with cap and player relief. Of course, there are exceptions (Arizona!), but even those teams have their limits.

When an NHL team is in “win now” mode, and finds itself struggling, it is dealing from a position of weakness. It’s difficult to “win” a trade when the team on the other end recognizes you are in a desperate scenario. It’s strategically the worst time to be considering a major shakeup within your lineup. The cost early on might seem affordable but the long-term ramifications can be harsh (especially when too many draft picks are traded away).

IDENTIFYING NEEDS

There is no doubt in my mind the Leafs' hockey operations department has been conducting meetings trying to find a strategy to plug holes on the NHL roster. Things are always fluid.

In my opinion their “D” core is not strong enough and the goaltending remains something to keep a close eye on. It took Matt Murray less than one week to find himself on LTIR, and this is a team that requires two full-time NHL quality goaltenders.

With all due respect, I don’t have enough confidence in Erik Kallgren as a full-time backup. I definitely don’t have enough faith in Kallgren as a 1B option.

Muzzin, Jordie Benn, and Timothy Liljegren being out of the lineup hasn’t been ideal. Any combination of those three names replaces a current defenceman on their roster.

Victor Mete is a below-average defender who doesn’t bring enough offence to ignore his deficiencies. Filip Kral is somewhere between an AHL top four and a six or seven in the NHL. Rasmus Sandin has struggled with his puck management and distribution.

I know the coach has confidence in Justin Holl, and his numbers aren’t terrible overall, but he finds ways to lose his check in the defensive zone or turnover pucks at the worst times. He looks stressed with the puck on his stick.

WHAT CAN BE DONE?

Short answer…not much.

They have to wait it out. They don’t have any wiggle room.

Sooner than later they will have more options on the back end with the return of Liljgren and possibly Benn. At the very least it gives the coaching staff more options and creates competition from within.

TRADE THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN

The Leafs discussed acquiring Ethan Bear from Carolina before he was traded to Vancouver. At the end of the day the cost was deemed too expensive and the team didn’t want to part with a draft pick.

I’m on record stating the Leafs are in a tough spot when it comes to the Denis Malgin versus Nick Robertson scenario. Malgin requires waivers to be sent to the AHL, Robertson does not.

Robertson made the team out of training camp, as did Malgin. In my opinion the team should have (and maybe they did) shopped Malgin coming out of camp.

If they could have found a buyer willing to invest, say, a fourth-round pick in 2023 for his services, would they have been more willing to use a pick on Bear?

I understand not wanting to part with the pick last week, but if they would have added the flexibility of the Malgin pick might it have changed the strategy?

Another way to look at it: Is the team better with Bear and Robertson in the lineup, or Robertson and Malgin?

(Note: In my opinion Bear is more of a high-end five than a consistent top four option so far in his career. He could be a top four, but on most teams he isn’t. For me, he would have taken some of Holl’s minutes and been an upgrade for Toronto.)

MARNER OR NYLANDER?

Would I consider moving one of these names? In the right situation I would consider anything to make the team better.

Is it realistic in-season? Maybe in Nylander's case, but not likely in Marner’s.

Both of these players are elite offensive talents. One makes significantly less money than the other (Marner makes $11M to Nylander's $7M). On balance, moving Nylander should be easier than moving Marner.

If the Leafs are listening on Nylander it has to be a money in/money out and one contract slot for one contract slot deal.

An example of such a deal would be a trade with Arizona. If the Leafs target a player like Jakob Chychrun there might be a fit for both teams. Chychrun has a reasonable contract that brings cost certainty through the 2024-25 season ($4.6 million AAV).

But is that enough of a return for a highly skilled player like Nylander?

Players who can take over games offensively, on any given night, are a rare breed. There aren’t as many in the league as one might assume. I’m not comfortable with the one-for-one deal with Arizona. I also don’t have any interest in some of their depth NHL players. There would have to be a swap of draft picks included in this deal. Something like Toronto acquiring the Coyotes' second-round pick in 2023 in exchange for Toronto’s own third in 2023.

If the Leafs swapped Nylander and their third to Arizona for Chychrun and a second, it would also save the Leafs $2.4 million on the cap. Nylander does not have a “no trade” or “modified no trade” clause in his contract so he can be moved to any team in the league.

WILL IT HAPPEN?  

I doubt it. At least not now.

The Leafs are more likely to stay the course through their next stretch of games and try to eliminate outside noise instead of making a hasty decision. The fact that Chychrun remains on IR in Arizona also puts the brakes on a transaction of this magnitude.

GETTING BACK TO MARNER

Marner has a no-move clause in his contract that kicks in on July 1 of next year. It’s something to be aware of when bringing up his name in trade scenarios. The timing, and the fit, have to be right if a transaction were to occur at some stage.

MARNER BENCHING

I feel like I’m old school when I bring up the supposed “benching” that Marner received in Anaheim.

Missing a shift, or two, isn’t a benching in my mind and players in the NHL have to suck it up occasionally. There is nothing wrong with coaches at any level holding players accountable. What is wrong is millionaire athletes taking their frustrations out on $300 sticks because they are upset with being centred out.

Sheldon Keefe is the coach. If he is unhappy with how you are playing and needs to send a message it’s your job to understand, reflect, and adjust. Players aren’t missing pay checks when the coach sits them down for a few minutes. Let’s keep things in perspective.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

I know for a fact that every decision Kyle Dubas makes is passed through the desk of Brendan Shanahan. It’s the way the NHL works. The GM reports to the team president. The team president reports to the owner. The organization makes decisions together and pull in the same direction when assembling their roster. It just so happens that Dubas and Keefe are on the front lines. They are the daily faces of the hockey operations department.

The Leafs haven’t played up to their standard to start the season, but this isn’t a two-win team through its first 10 games (if it were, the coach would most certainly have been shown the door by now). They will be a playoff team this year and their results in the spring will determine the future of the management group.

My personal view is there are many teams in the league who are going through ups and downs to start the season. The Nashville Predators won their first two games out of the gate, but have gone 1-6-1 since. Colorado is off to a 4-4-1 start. The Pittsburgh Penguins have lost five straight, and the St. Louis Blues six.

I’m not in love with the Leafs' roster. I would openly debate the construction of the team with Dubas face to face (and have over the years). The reality is the entire roster has been constructed in an open forum within the Leafs' hockey operations department. Everyone has been informed all the way up the chain of command.

Now is not the time to be looking at major roster decisions. It’s never a good idea to make moves from a position of weakness.