Scout's Analysis: Progress report on Maple Leafs prospects in NCAA and Europe

Within an NHL organization, it's the role of the player development team to identify what kind of support each prospect requires to maximize their potential, and hopefully become an NHL player one day.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have invested heavily in player development and the organization is fortunate to have one of the most decorated athletes in Canadian history leading the way.

Hayley Wickenheiser is in charge of structuring the support required to maximize the development of Leaf prospects. We corresponded this week ahead of my analysis on some of the players in Toronto's pipeline who are developing in the NCAA and Europe.

Here is my Q&A with her:

Jason Bukala: What, if any, differences have you noticed between how European and North American prospects present themselves at their first development camp?

Hayley Wickenheiser: I don’t find there to be a big difference so much between European and North American, I find it to be very player specific. Obviously if a player doesn’t speak a language, it becomes a much more difficult integration into the NHL and prospect camp. Most of these players and prospects we have are playing professional hockey already overseas so I find their ability to come in and step into the pace and physicality of a prospect camp quite good. So, for me overall, other than language and culture, you don’t see a ton of differences. It’s more player-to-player.

JB: How often throughout the season do members of your staff personally evaluate and communicate with your prospects?

HW: We are constantly in communication with our prospects. We try to see them regularly in person and we’ll also do zooms usually monthly. It often depends on the prospects. Some want more and some want somewhat less. It’s about our staff knowing what each prospect needs and of course the daily communication whether it's injury needs, or just wanting to talk about their game. I would say there are no hard fast rules, but it’s pretty frequent communication.

JB: The Leafs, and anyone in hockey circles, are fortunate to have such a highly decorated player on their staff. Someone who knows how to be disciplined on and off the ice. What's your biggest piece of advice for new members of the Leafs organization when they arrive at any one of the training camps? 

HW: The advice I gave the group last year was to be a thief, look around and steal things from other players, the organization, from the NHL players, from people you observe… incorporate it and use it in your own game and really be eyes wide open and in a learning and growing mode and to not be afraid of failing and trying things. It’s the best way to move forward and for us to evaluate where they are at and what they might need moving forward.

JB: Is there a player(s) that you are most proud of? In terms of how far they have come in their development.

HW: There are many. I think of William Villeneuve winning the Memorial Cup after having a tough start to that junior year last year and now stepping in this year and being a pretty regular player in the American Hockey League. Noel Hoefenmayer is a kid who really embraced our development model and has kind of come from nothing so to speak and has really played well for us this season. Happy to see Mac Hollowell get a shot in the NHL. Players like SDA (Semyon Der-Arguchintsev)...there’s a whole host of them. I think through the years you kind of sit back and smile when they have success or they do well and especially those who commit and put in the work that’s required to make it to the next level.

Thanks to Hayley for taking the time to talk with me. Now on to the players. Here are some of my observations on Leaf prospects currently developing in the NCAA and Europe:

Matthew Knies (Sophomore)
Team: University of Minnesota, NCAA
Drafted: 57th overall in 2021
6-foot-2 / 210 pounds / Left Shot Forward

Knies has garnered a great deal of attention from Leafs fans as he develops at the University of Minnesota. After a mediocre, by his standards, summer World Junior tournament representing USA, Knies is back playing to his identity at the college level. There are no secrets about how he plays the game. He’s a big, powerful, goal scoring forward who produces most of his offence from the middle of the ice and around the crease.

Knies is being used in all situations and his average TOI has hovered close to 20 minutes on a nightly basis. He is third in team scoring with 11 goals and eight assists and tied for the team goal scoring lead in 18 games. Four of Knies' goals have come on the power play. He has also scored a shorthanded goal. Knies is a shooter. He’s second on the team averaging over three shots on goal per game. I’ve noticed he is playing quicker and faster this year. He’s become more of a threat to win races to loose pucks. Defenders have to respect his pace, between the blue lines, and in transition.

The most glaring strength to Knies' game is his willingness to take pucks and battle in the hard areas of the ice.

Here is a look at the heat map of where Knies creates his offence and extends plays that result in second chances to score:

It’s an impressive image and speaks to his style of play and element.

And here is an example of Knies chipping a puck on the penalty kill and winning a race up ice for a shorthanded goal:

If Knies decides to come out of school and turn pro after this season he has a chance to fill a power forward role for the Leafs. In my opinion his ceiling is that of a top six winger who will continue to play to his strengths by extending plays, and scoring goals in the trenches.

Ryan Tverberg (Junior)
Team: UCONN, NCAA
Drafted: 213th overall in 2020
5-foot-11 / 175 pounds / Right Shot Forward

Tverberg is one of my favourite Leafs prospects. Everyone pulls for an underdog. The Leafs have an interesting dilemma on their hands regarding Tverberg. Do you offer him a contract at the end of this season? Or do you risk losing him after his senior season to another team? If Tverberg returns for his senior season next year he will have the option to sign with Toronto or become a free agent the summer after he graduates (on August 15).

Tverberg leads the Huskies in scoring, with 10 goals and seven assists so far this season. Three of his goals have come on the power play, but he also kills penalties and is one of the forwards on the ice in key defensive zone scenarios. Tverberg skates anywhere from 18-22 minutes per night.

It’s never a sure thing when players turn pro, but I’m not underestimating this kid. He has put the work in so far. When he does decide to turn pro, if it's not with Toronto, another team will have guaranteed interest.

Tverberg has added more strength and explosiveness to his game as he matures. Here is an example of him exploding to a puck in his zone before skating up ice on a breakaway for a goal versus Boston University:

Dennis Hildeby
Team: Farjestad BK, Sweden (SHL)
Drafted: 122nd overall in 2022
6-foot-6 / 231 pounds / Goaltender

The first thing that stands out is Hildeby's stature. The Leafs' fourth-round selection in Montreal was listed at 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds in June. Now he's listed at 6-foot-6 and 231 pounds!

Hildeby is a work in progress. He is currently backing up Matt Tomkins (a 28-year-old Canadian netminder) at Farjestad and has only had seven starts to date. His stats are solid, 2.39 GAA and .919 save percentage, but they don’t tell the entire story.

Hildeby uses his size to his advantage and doesn’t stray outside his posts. He sets up in the middle of his crease, which is a bit deeper than some goalies but he can easily get away with the positioning due to his stature. He has the ability to track side to side and make quick pad saves. He sits tall in his butterfly, taking away the upper portions of the net. Hildeby has one of the better blocker hands I’ve seen in a prospect. It's very quick and bounds scoring chances away that look like they are destined for the net. He has good feet and his mechanics are sound overall. He plays the puck effectively as well.

The areas of his game that concern me include his rebound control and glove hand positioning. He allows pucks to come to him, but it's 50/50 whether or not he will absorb shots or have them deflect off his frame and result in secondary scoring chances against. He positions his glove hand facing down towards the ice. There are a lot of goalies who play this way, but it’s imperative that he gets the glove turned over quick enough to catch pucks and make saves. He has allowed goals under his glove by simply not being quick enough to front the puck.

Roni Hirvonen
Team: HIFK Helsinki, Finland (Liiga)
Drafted: 59th overall in 2020
5-foot-9 / 176 pounds / Left Shot Forward

Hirvonen has signed with the Leafs and he’s on loan to HIFK Helsinki in Finland’s Liiga. HIFK is having a rough season by its standard and it’s affected Hirvonen’s momentum. Through 28 games this season Hirvonen has only scored five goals and five assists. Last season he tallied nine goals and 17 assists. To equal his pace from last season he will have to average over a point per game the rest of 2022-23.

I’ve had time for Hirvonen’s game over the years. He’s a very competitive, albeit undersized, forward who has produced offence within his age group and contributed secondary scoring in Liiga. I’m concerned about trends that have been developing in his game that identify his inability to get to the middle of the ice and around the net to produce offence. Hirvonen is averaging just over 15 minutes of ice per game and he’s being deployed at even strength and on the power play.

My concern is heightened when I dissect Hirvonen’s shot chart for this season. Not only is he not generating enough pucks to the net, the majority are coming from the perimeter.

Topi Niemela
Team: Karpat, Finland (Liiga)
Drafted: 64th overall in 2020
5-foot-11 / 170 pounds / Right Shot D

Niemela is under contract with the Leafs and on loan to Karpat in Liiga. His offensive numbers have also dropped off considerably from last season. Last year he scored 10 goals and 22 assists in 48 games for Karpat, whereas this season he has only produced four goals and three assists in 27 games.

The good news is Niemela isn’t a one-dimensional player. When he’s not producing offence he continues to be trusted on the penalty kill and provides reliable detail in all three zones. He’s quick to space in the defensive zone and is willing to block shots. Niemela is logging just under 20 minutes of ice per game on average this season and continues to be used in all situations (although his power play minutes are down since his fall off in production).

I’m hoping his drop in offence is not going to be a trend moving forward. He has historically produced at every stop in his development so he might be suffering through a “sophomore slump” this season in Liiga. I will definitely be more concerned if his lack of scoring becomes a trend in the future. It’s an element of his game that needs to be part of his arsenal at the NHL level to gave sustained success.