Scout's Analysis: Re-ranking the top 10 prospects from the 2022 NHL Draft

Full disclosure: the exercise I am about to embark on is a dangerous one. I have no issues evaluating the progress prospects are making with their development, but it’s an entirely different endeavour creating a new draft order from the one that unfolded just last summer in Montreal.

Some of the players have made great strides in a variety of categories. They are maximizing their most efficient elements, and improving their areas of weakness. Others have struggled to meet expectations, resulting in a slower development path to date.

Logan Cooley, for example, has had a fantastic freshman season playing for the University of Minnesota. He continues to impact the game offensively and is a dynamic forward who has added more strength to his frame. He’s playing quicker in small areas, and faster in open ice. His detail defensively has also improved. I describe him as “average plus” on the defensive side of the ledger, which is plenty good enough considering his considerable upside offensively.

Cooley is trending up. He’s a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award (awarded to the too player in NCAA Men’s Hockey). And, I should note, he was the No. 1 prospect on my pre-draft list last summer.

Here’s an example of the kind of effort Cooley is providing.

In this clip Cooley (No. 92 in white) tracks back defensively, finishes his check, reacts as his team gains possession of the puck, jumps into the rush, creates a two-on-one by outskating his opponent up ice and scores going to the net with the puck.

Shane Wright, on the other hand, is a prospect who has gone through more than his share of ups and downs since being selected by the Seattle Kraken fourth overall.

In hindsight, he wasn’t ready for the NHL game in the fall. The Kraken have a team on the rise and Wright wasn’t able to find a consistent role with the club. His short stint in the AHL was positive as he scored four goals in five games playing for Coachella Valley. After captaining Team Canada at the WJC he was returned to major junior where he eventually landed with the Windsor Spitfires after being traded by the Kingston Frontenacs.

Which brings me to my current evaluation of where Wright is with his game. I appreciate there have been many moving parts off the ice this season, but the current state of Wright’s game concerns me.

His point production is misleading. He averaged 1.85 points per game with Windsor in 20 regular season games, but, at time of this writing he had only scored one goal and two assists in three playoff games versus the Kitchener Rangers. More alarming is the fact he is minus-5 in the series – including a minus-3 in a must-win Game 3 on the road. Windsor, the top seed in the Western Conference, is now down three games to none and facing a major upset. Wright's not starting games on time or playing with the three-zone detail, compete, and offence expected from a player of his stature.

I was at Game 1 in Windsor. Here is a clip of Wright’s first shift of the series (No. 51 in red). Notice him above the play in the neutral zone, in good position, before the puck moves into his defensive zone. He follows the play around, stick checking his opponents but not making the required effort to create a turnover. His lacklustre defending eventually contributes to the sequence that leads to an early goal for Kitchener.

So, while there is still lots of time for these players to develop, we have learned some more about them this season and have more information with which to rank them. So, without further ado, here's how I'd re-rank the top 10 prospects from the 2022 NHL Draft.

NO. 1: LOGAN COOLEY, UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

2022 Draft Spot: Third overall to Arizona Coyotes

Cooley has had an incredible freshman season at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are participating in the Frozen Four this weekend in Tampa and Cooley is the leading scorer. He’s also a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award. He’s quicker, faster, and stronger than he was when he arrived at Minnesota. The dynamic forward has played with increased detail in all three zones and his plus-37 rating speaks to his overall game.

NHL Projection: Top-line scoring forward

NO. 2: JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY, MONTREAL CANADIENS

2022 Draft Spot: First overall to Montreal Canadiens

Slafkovsky went through some growing pains, to say the least, this year at the NHL level before going down with a season ending injury. What concerned me most was him exposing himself for big hits. He had a difficult time adjusting to the smaller ice surface and the fact NHL players don’t give away free ice on zone entries and below the goal line. If they see a player with his head down, he is going to pay the price. Having said that, Slafkovsky also displayed an ability to absorb contact, win pucks along the boards, cycle to the middle of the ice, and rip pucks on net. He needs time. Power forwards from Europe don’t usually jump right into the league at his age and adjust immediately.

Here's a clip that displays everything I’m describing. Notice Slafkovsky expose himself on the zone entry. He could have easily been run over, and eliminated from the play all together, but he absorbs contact and eventually ends up with the puck coming off the boards, before scoring from medium range.

NHL Projection: Top-six power forward

NO. 3: SIMON NEMEC, UTICA COMETS

2022 Draft Spot: Second overall to New Jersey Devils

Nemec is being deployed in all situations at the AHL level. He’s producing offence and defending with purpose. He’s an excellent skater, pushes back physically when required, and manages the puck in all three zones. He was the captain of Team Slovakia at the WJC in Halifax and Moncton.

NHL Projection: Middle pair/trending top pair NHL defenceman

NO. 4: DAVID JIRICEK, CLEVELAND MONSTERS

2022 Draft Spot: Sixth overall to Columbus Blue Jackets

Jiricek was a force for Team Czechia at the WJC. He makes plays offensively, shoots the puck a ton, and is being used in all situations at the AHL level. His defending is mostly sound, but he does get above opponents (wrong side) in his zone at times, leaving himself in a difficult position to properly contain a player. Jiricek only needs to be an average plus defender at the NHL level because his offence is proving to be his most attractive element.

NHL Projection: Middle pair/spot duty top pair NHL defenceman

NO. 5: CUTTER GAUTHIER, BOSTON COLLEGE

2022 Draft Spot: Fifth overall to Philadelphia Flyers

Gauthier had a nice freshman season at Boston College and represented Team USA at the WJC. He played to his identity. He’s a big, strong, power forward who leans shooter more than distributor. Gauthier’s skating has also gone to another level. He’s a high-end prospect for the Flyers.

NHL Projection: Top-six power forward

NO. 6: PAVEL MINTYUKOV, OTTAWA 67'S

2022 Draft Slot: 10th overall to Anaheim Ducks

The Anaheim Ducks are rebuilding and Mintyukov is part of the process. His defending has gone to another level this year in the OHL. He’s more determined on and off the puck in his zone. His read/react is much improved. This is reassuring, considering his element is offence more than pure defence. Mintyukov is equal parts shooter/distributor at even strength and the power play. He could end up being an NHL power-play quarterback in time.

NHL Projection: Middle pairing/transitional NHL defenceman at even strength/power play QB

NO. 7: KEVIN KORCHINSKI, SEATTLE THUNDERBIRDS

2022 Draft Spot: Seventh overall to Chicago Blackhawks

Korchinski is a big reason why the Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) are having the success they are this season. He logs a ton of minutes in all situations. His skating stride, especially his first three steps, is a bit unorthodox but he gets everywhere on time at this stage of his development. Korchinski has the ability to quarterback the power play at the NHL level in time. His element is definitely offence more than pure defence.

NHL Projection: Middle pairing NHL defenceman at even strength/power play QB

NO. 8: MARCO KASPER, DETROIT RED WINGS

2022 Draft Spot: Eighth overall to Detroit Red Wings

Kasper’s offensive numbers improved marginally in his second full year playing for Rogle in the SHL (Sweden). He has arrived in Detroit and recently played his first NHL game. What I appreciated most about his game this season was an aggressive style on and off the puck as he tracked up and down the ice with purpose. Kasper has added another level of quickness to his game, too. He’s not the most dynamic offensive player on this list, but he plays the game the right way and can be trusted in a variety of roles. He could end up being a well-rounded second line forward for years to come in Detroit.

NHL Projection: Top-six forward

NO. 9: JIMMY SNUGGERUD, UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

2022 Draft Spot: 23rd overall to St. Louis Blues

Snuggerud is a big reason why Minnesota finds itself playing for a national championship at the Frozen Four this weekend. His stats don’t lie. In 45 games combined (Team USA WJC and Minnesota NCAA) he has 26 goals, 37 assists and is an impressive plus-38. Snuggerud has good leverage in the trenches. He battles for space in the offensive zone and complements skilled line mates. St. Louis did very well selecting him where they did in 2022.

NHL Projection: Top-six forward

NO. 10: JIRI KULICH, ROCHESTER AMERICANS

2022 Draft Spot: 28th overall to Buffalo Sabres

This is an aggressive leap in the ranking. I recognize there are some good players Kulich is leapfrogging, but he’s on pace for 25-plus goals at the AHL level as a rookie. He’s continued to play to his goal scoring identity that he established last year at the World U18 Championships in Germany. He has some holes defensively and needs to increase his detail off the puck, but his release is elite and he knows how to find quiet ice and score goals. Kulich could be a 30-goal scorer (or more) some day at the NHL level.

NHL Projection: Top-six forward/power play specialist

OTHER NOTABLE PLAYERS

Lane Hutson, Boston University
Drafted 62nd overall by Montreal in 2022

Hutson led the NCAA in defencemen scoring as a freshman and he was used in all situations. He’s dynamic and uber-competitive. His listed size (according to Boston University) is now 5-foot-10 and 160 pounds. Hutson would be a first-round selection in a re-draft.

Matthew Savoie, Winnipeg Ice
Drafted ninth overall by Buffalo in 2022

Savoie remains on the cusp of my top 10. He hasn’t done anything wrong this season and, in fact, his defensive game has improved. Savoie is a dynamic scorer at the WHL level. He’s being deployed in all situations and has six shorthanded goals. I’m projecting Savoie as a winger at the NHL level.

Shane Wright, Windsor Spitfires
Drafted fourth overall by Seattle in 2022

Wright falls out of my top 10. He has time to regroup and put his game together next season, but I had to provide an honest assessment of his play compared to others on this list. I recognize his year has been disjointed and I’m sure it hasn’t been easy bouncing around like he has. But the reality is he is behind others on this list based on merit. His body of work hasn’t been as good as the others.