Scout's Analysis: Thoughts on Maple Leafs and adjustments for Game 2

The 24-hour rule.

It’s a rule that is generally imposed by coaches in minor hockey and other sports, and the reason is simple: Coaches don’t want to hear from unhappy parents, or players, for at least 24 hours following a game. Often, a little time is needed to heal raw emotions and, hopefully, after some reflection, a meaningful conversation that separates “fact from fiction” can be had.

So, I took that advice and followed the 24 hour rule before putting pen to paper with my thoughts on the Toronto Maple Leafs after the Boston Bruins handed them their lunch in Game 1, by a 5-1 score.

With a deep breath, here’s my best shot at presenting some perspective before Game 2 Monday night in Boston:

RELENTLESS COMPETE

Over the course of my career, I have scouted and reported on over 3,500 prospects. And as I've written about before on this website, I have a pretty simple approach when I start to dissect a prospect and forecast if he can be an NHL player some day.

1. Is the player a relentless competitor?

2. Can the player skate at NHL pace?

3. Does the player think the game effectively in high leverage scenarios?

Once I feel comfortable that the player has provided me confidence in those three categories I begin the process of analyzing his overall skill attributes. Is he a shooter, distributor, play driver, shot blocker, defensive defenceman, etc.

I do this because if an NHL player isn’t prepared to outwork their opponent at the hardest time of the year — in the playoffs — his skill set will be neutralized.

That bring us to the Maple Leafs, who have several elite regular season players on their roster.

For example, you can't deny that Mitch Marner is one of the top scoring wingers in the NHL. When I watch Marner play the way he did on Saturday, however, it frustrates me. He was credited with a grand total of two shots on goal in Game 1, and neither were all that threatening.

What stands out to me about both of his shots is that they were from well out. To be fair, the second shot did provide a rebound chance for Auston Matthews and it was a responsible play to the net.

But the issue I have is both of those shots on goal occurred in the first period. He got nothing after that.

Marner didn’t come close to having an impact on the game with his offence over the entire 60 minutes. This is a prime example of what I’m describing when I note the fact skill will be eliminated if it isn’t fronted with relentless compete.

In case the Leafs are looking for examples of what relentless compete looks like, here’s one from Bruins forward Jakub Lauko at the end of Game 1.

Lauko fronts Benoit to block a shot with five seconds left in game the Bruins are leading by four goals! Watch closely. His teammates love his commitment and sacrifice. It’s part of the Bruins DNA. And remember, this is a $787,500 player.

I’m not looking for sound bites from Marner after a performance like we saw in Game 1. I’m fully aware how this group believes they are capable of contending for a Stanley Cup. I also know how many great players are in the room. But those are just words.

I have no doubt Marner’s injury (high ankle sprain) will linger well into summer and it certainly could be hindering his shift-to-shift impact. But there’s a lineup around the block of players who are suiting up in these playoffs with bumps, bruises and sprains.

Marner rarely says it, but he knows he needs to be better in Game 2. Or, at least he must recognize that he has to have a greater impact.

There’s a part of me that genuinely believes Marner is an elite player who doesn’t know, or hasn’t shown he knows, how to be the best version of himself in the playoffs so far in his career.

Game 2 will present another opportunity for Marner to put my (and Leafs fans') mind at ease. At least until the next game.

And remember, before anyone goes off on me about being too hard on Marner, take pause and recognize he’s the ninth-highest paid player in the NHL, making $10.9 million this season. In my world, making that kind of money comes with an expectation of playoff results.

ABOUT THE FIRST GOAL AGAINST

I understand Ryan Reaves was overzealous doubling down on a check in the offensive zone when defenceman Joel Edmundson had already committed to pinch down and extend the play.

My question, though, is why did Edmundson feel the need to risk the play without proper checking support from Reaves or any other Leafs forward?

Toronto’s fourth line is in place to lean on opponents and create some chaos if possible. If they score, which they did in the third period, it should be considered a bonus. The line's job is to wear down the Bruins when called on. The Leafs' defencemen also have to recognize when the fourth line is out in the first period, it's a time to play low event hockey.

Pinching down and getting caught up ice shouldn’t be a part of the strategy when the fourth line is on the ice.

REALITY CHECK

Last year, the Leafs started their first-round playoff series with a resounding defeat at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning by a score of 7-3. I recognize Toronto rebounded nicely for a 7-2 win in Game 2 and then went on to win that series, but the Bruins are a stingy team with home ice advantage. If Toronto finds itself down two games on Tuesday morning, it’ll be hard for me to realistically imagine the Leafs winning four of the next five games to advance to the second round.

However there is some good news, albeit somewhat of a reach, from Saturday's game stats.

If I was to present the following stats box and asked you to guess what the score was in the game, I’m sure a 5-1 blowout win for the Bruins wouldn’t come to mind.

The downside of statistics is they don’t reveal some of the intricacies of the actual game and can provide a security blanket that hides actual deficiencies a team has in its overall game.

I could debate all day the value the Leafs put on things like puck possession, offensive zone time, high danger shots for and against, etc., but the reality is Toronto lost the special teams battle by a wide margin, got crushed in the faceoff circle (winning only 43 per cent of their draws) and gave the puck away more than their opponent did.

Mix in a few pucks that could have been stopped by Ilya Samsonov, and you end up with the lopsided result we saw on the scoreboard.

PHYSICALITY VS. DISCIPLINE

On balance the Leafs didn’t shy away from contact and provided adequate physical push back as a group. They certainly didn’t get bullied by the Bruins. I’m getting bored talking about how this group of Leafs needs to ramp up their physicality. They have enough players who play to the identity. Defenceman Simon Benoit, for example, was credited with eight hits while Tyler Bertuzzi engaged five times.

The difference between the Leafs and the Bruins is that Boston thrives on getting inside their opponent's head. Players like Brad Marchand, Trent Frederic, Patrick Maroon and Charlie McAvoy all play with an edge. But they also recognize when to draw the line and not hurt their team by taking an unnecessary penalty for extra curricular happenings.

I appreciate what Max Domi was attempting to accomplish in Game 1. He set out to play a pesky game with the intent of reversing course for Toronto and goad the Bruins into penalties. The problem is it was far too obvious and lacked any sort of calculated approach. The Bruins, especially enemy number one Marchand, knew exactly what Domi was going to try to do.

Things could change as the series rolls along, but Boston took the high road. They generally didn’t respond to Domi’s antics and strategy, which left him looking like a player who was far too desperate to create chaos. It felt rehearsed, predictable, and ultimately lacked discipline.

Toronto still needs Domi, Bertuzzi, Jake McCabe, Benoit, Connor Dewar and maybe Reaves to play with an edge. They just need to know when to draw the line and not hurt their own team by taking needless penalties that exposes the Leafs' struggling penalty killing unit.

ADJUSTMENTS FOR GAME 2

I don’t have any inside information on what Sheldon Keefe has up his sleeve, in terms of lineup changes and systems, for Game 2. The first thing, though, is that Toronto will be hoping William Nylander returns to the lineup. His presence creates an extra layer of checking awareness for the Bruins and the Leafs certainly missed Nylander’s speed and skill in Game 1.

Two lineup adjustments that should be considered include starting Joseph Woll in net and moving Domi off Matthews' line.

Samsonov wasn’t horrible Saturday, but he has to find a way to make a save on the Bruins' second goal off the stick of Brandon Carlo and arguably the fourth Boston tuck from Jake DeBrusk. Carlo beat Samsonov clean over the blocker, while DeBrusk walked to the top of the circle before firing a puck inside the post on Samsonov’s stick side.

A Marner and Matthews reunion on the top line could lead to more positive results. Marner needs to be much better and Domi’s approach didn’t complement Matthews enough in Game 1.

With that said, if Nylander is available, here is my suggested lineup for Game 2:

Bertuzzi-Matthews-Marner
Nylander-Tavares-Jarnkrok
Knies-Holmberg-Domi
Dewar-Kampf-Reaves

Rielly-Lyubushkin
Benoit-McCabe
Edmundson-Liljegren

Woll
Samsonov