Scout's Analysis: Updated reports on top five prospects for 2023 NHL Draft

The NHL scouting community is entering the stretch drive of the 2022-23 cycle. European teams are well into their playoffs, the NCAA Frozen Four is on the horizon, and the Canadian Hockey League is preparing to start their playoffs this weekend. The USHL season runs longer than any league and their playoffs are still weeks away.

I’m fully entrenched in the stretch drive myself. I will be attending games in all the leagues mentioned above, as well as the U18 World Championships in Switzerland at the end of April. I will continue to update my draft list and inform our readers on developing trends.

In early February I published my first draft list of this cycle -- a top 40 ranking -- and on Thursday of this week I will publish my updated list, which has expanded to around 50 names (and will continue to grow from here).

Ahead of that, I decided to share with you here a bit of a deeper dive into my top five prospects for the 2023 draft.

(Note: Heights and weights will be updated following the NHL Draft Combine when NHL Central Scouting measures the prospects a month before the event.)

The countdown is on. Bedard will be selected first overall in Nashville this June. Scouts will still flock to see him play in the WHL playoffs (versus Saskatoon) in Round 1 to observe how he handles extra close checking in a seven-game series.

Take a look at this stat line and let it sink in for a minute! Bedard is a generational talent and a future NHL star.

Fantilli moved up in my ranking because he took his game to another level after the WJC with Team Canada. Fantilli is a Hobey Baker nominee and the leading scorer in the NCAA. In a 10-game segment before the NCAA tournament he scored six goals and 10 assists, was used in all situations, and averaged 17:53 of ice time. He was also plus-12 over that span and won 52 per cent of his face-offs. He’s an elite offensive talent who can be used in a variety of roles and a play driver who plays the game quick and fast. Fantilli is a handful who projects to be a top line NHL forward.

I’m splitting hairs between Matvei Michkov and Carlsson for this slot, but ultimately I settled on Carlsson. He’s a big body who moves very well, extends plays in the hard areas, and has fantastic puck touch. In his most recent five-game segment he produced five assists and averaged nearly 15 minutes of ice time per game. All of his ice time comes at even strength and on the power play, where he is used on the weak side flank.

Here's a clip of Carlsson (No. 91 in black jersey) extending a play along the boards. Watch as he absorbs two checks before chipping the puck to a teammate and heading to the net:

Michkov has suited up for several different teams at the MHL, VHL, and KHL levels this season in Russia. He’s a high-end offensive talent, a crafty forward who can make a play in a phone booth. He also has some deception off the rush, surprising opponents with an extra gear in transition.

We are getting to the stage in the season when my list-building begins to factor in things like contract situations for European players. Michkov is signed through 2025-26 with SKA St.Petersburg, and it's not guaranteed that he will come to North America when that contract expires. If a team is willing to take the risk and wait for him, he could have the same kind of impact Kirill Kaprizov has on the Minnesota Wild. Michkov's stats at the KHL level, where he's on loan to play for HK Sochi, are elite for his age.

You've probably seen Michkov's "Michigan" goal from earlier this season, but this clip below is most impressive for me on a play where he gets an assist from his knees. He stays with the play and elevates his body just enough to leverage his stick and make a pass. Michkov is wearing No. 39 in the teal.

Depending on what type of player any organization near the top of the draft is looking for, Smith is the kind of prospect who can throw a wrench into the draft order early in the process. Teams value centres over wingers and Smith is a playmaking forward who slots down the middle. Simply put, he’s a high-end talent who could end up being a play driver on a top line in the NHL.

Here’s an example of what Smith can provide.

In this sequence he picks up a puck in his zone, leads the two-on-one rush, changes pace, distributes the puck, then incredibly corrals the rebound mid-air before snapping it home for a goal.

Smith is No. 2 in the white Team USA jersey.