Scout's Analysis: What Auston Matthews' extension means for Toronto's 'Core Four'

As August creeps toward September, the hockey community is ready to break out of its slumber. There is still much left to resolve for many teams around the league, and I eagerly await being able to analyze everything that's to come.

Earlier this week one of those major remaining off-season storylines concluded with Auston Matthews signing a four-year contract extension to stay in Toronto through the 2027-28 season. Whenever a star player signs it sends a shockwave throughout the league. Executives, naturally, take notice. Sometimes players sign for a “discount” to remain with their current clubs, other times teams essentially provide the vault combination and significantly overpay for a player’s services.

Everyone is affected by contract values and how they may change the overall market when operating under the constraints of a salary cap as the NHL does.

In analyzing the impact of Matthews' signing on the Maple Leafs, I was tempted to go through the entire Toronto roster. However, since the 'Core Four' have really defined this era of the Leafs and they were all eligible for contract renewals this season or next, I decided to focus on what this deal means for Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares.

With that in mind, here’s my take on the Leafs' core four players today and into the future:

The Matthews Extension

Everyone recognizes Matthews is one of the most prolific regular season scorers in the NHL.

Like any Leaf fan, though, I’ve been underwhelmed by this team and Matthews in the post-season. I’ve grown tired of hearing about the growth of the roster and their potential to go on a deep playoff run. Given all that, though, I was surprised to see Matthews has averaged 0.88 points per game in the playoffs.

If the Leafs had won more than one round last spring the overall perception of Matthews' playoff impact would certainly be different. Do I expect him to find another level in the spring? I absolutely do. That’s what star players do at the hardest time of the year.

Matthews' extension would make him the league's highest paid player in 2024-25, so isn't it fair to compare his playoff output to the following players?

• Connor McDavid (1.53 playoff points per game)

• Nathan MacKinnon (1.29)

• Nikita Kucherov (1.12)

Having said that, It’s also fair to provide some wider perspective. Here are three Stanley Cup champions and their average point per game rates in the playoffs:

• Alex Ovechkin (0.96)

• Patrick Kane (0.97)

• Steven Stamkos (0.77)

Matthews was always going to get a big pay day on this extension, and most expected him to wind up with the league's highest AAV. The fact the salary cap is projected to rise substantially in the coming years (potentially north of $92M by 2025) means that it's entirely affordable to absorb this $1.61 million raise when the extension kicks in next year. He’s the Leafs' most dangerous offensive forward, his three-zone detail has improved and his game has evolved physically. Matthews is Toronto's best player and he would have been paid more on the open market.

I’m not the least bit concerned with the four-year term of this deal. Quite the opposite. It makes sense for the Leafs and Matthews. If the team hasn’t found success in the playoffs by the time Matthews goes into his 13th season with the Leafs, it’s probably time for both parties to start over without each other anyway.

This deal is a win-win for both parties.

Mitch Marner

Marner’s signed for two more seasons with a $10.903 million cap hit and he'll be eligible to sign an extension in July of 2024. I appreciate Marner’s skill. He can log a ton of minutes in all situations, he's a great distributor with elite hockey sense and he produces plenty of offence. He's a top line NHL player, no doubt.

But Marner plays a light game and he has found it much more difficult to score goals in the playoffs. He also seems to turn the puck over, or try to do too much, at the most inopportune time. When a player averages over 22 minutes per game in the playoffs, though, mistakes are bound to happen so we can't get too distracted.

As a homegrown player from the GTA, Marner wears the weight of Leafs nation on his shoulders. He loves playing in Toronto and he’s enjoyed a productive career to date. But playoff success is what cements legacies. Marner has scored just one power-play goal in 50 playoff games, to go along with sixteen power play assists. It’s fair for the team to expect more from him at the hardest time of the year. If you are making the kind of dough he makes, he should expect it too.

I feel like Marner has been paid handsomely for not enough playoff impact. When the time comes, his next contract can’t get in the way of paying others on this roster.

The extension Brayden Point signed in Tampa makes me think about Marner's next contract. Point has a $9.5 million AAV through the 2029-30 season and, after I take into consideration the tax savings in Florida, I have Point making around $11 million in a Canadian market.

The Leafs and Marner have plenty of time to work with, but it’s my judgement that if he wants to remain a Leaf, he'll understand early on that his next deal will land between $11–$11.5 million per season.

If he thinks he is going to bump up closer to Matthews money, his long-term fit on the team will be in question.

John Tavares

Think back to July 1, 2018, the day Tavares signed with the Leafs, and how much promise came with him. Five years on, Tavares is now entering the final two years of that contract and the Leafs have just a single playoff series victory so far. That was certainly not the vision the team had when it signed him.

Turning 33 years old in September, Tavares' peak years are now probably behind him. In 2022-23, 50 per cent of his points came on the power play and he was a minus player at even strength. His playoff stats don't pop either.

Tavares is an exceptional pro. He’s a low maintenance leader who has carried the weight of both franchises he has suited up for in the NHL. He’s fantastic in the face-off circle and gifted at tipping pucks on the power play. He competes to the best of his ability and has some grind to his game below the goal line and along the wall in the offensive zone. He’s also being paid $11 million and has a full no-move clause in his contract.

I’m not sure the Leafs brass sees it this way, but I feel like moving Tavares to the wing is inevitable. He isn’t a threat off the rush and struggles with zone exits when caught deep in the zone. He can still take key face-offs in all three zones, but simply needs to cover less ice with his legs.

The unfortunate reality is that his contract is so big it's contributing to Toronto's lack of flexibility to pay others in the near future (more on that scenario below).

When the Leafs signed Tavares to this contract, I'm sure they were anticipating more playoff success by now and that these final few years would be gravy. If Toronto had more post-season success to show for the investment in Tavares this whole situation would feel much different. I’m confident saying Tavares will continue to produce on the power play, but I’m very concerned about his even strength and hard defensive zone match-ups overall.

Tavares’ contract is essentially buyout proof, as he's mostly paid in signing bonuses instead of in-season salary. It’s one year too long, but he's here to stay to the end of it. Hopefully the team finds a path to success in the remaining two years of his deal because, beyond that, I don’t see a fit for Tavares in Toronto when his contract expires.

William Nylander and an impending big raise

Will it happen in Toronto?

Like Matthews, Nylander is entering the final year of a contract. Unlike Matthews, Nylander's current rate is something of a bargain, in that it pays him $6.92 million against the cap -- a big step down compared to the other members of the core four.

What a predicament the Leafs find themselves in here. This is a prime example of where one contract (Tavares) ends up being one year too long and potentially interferes with Toronto's ability to extend a younger and more dynamic player on the roster.

Nylander has been one of the most polarizing prospects I have viewed for what seems like a lifetime, dating back to when I started scouting him in Sweden in 2012. He has the speed, strength, vision, and release to take over games offensively at any time. He also has the ability to stop on a dime when contact ensues (sometimes all of the above on the same shift!).

What’s undeniable is that Nylander is coming off his most complete season to date. The 27-year-old is a mostly motion player who rarely absorbs contact, so his body is less likely to break down compared to more physical forwards. He could play well late into his 30s.

There was a time when I felt Nylander didn't project to be part of the solution in Toronto so, I have to admit, I didn't think I was going to get to this stage with the player. However, I do now feel as though his impact is trending towards Marner territory and certainly will be greater than Tavares right now, though there will be nights when I won't entirely trust him.

Given all this, it will be fascinating to see what his next contract looks like, and where it might come from. Here are the AAV's of some other players who Nylander will be comparing himself to:

• Artemi Panarin $11.6 million

• Johnny Gaudreau $9.75 million

• Brayden Point $9.5 million

It could come down to term (eight years with Toronto or seven years elsewhere) but the $11 million owing Tavares in 2024-25 butts right up against the first year of a new Nylander deal. It will make it difficult for the Leafs to retain Nylander and build out the rest of their roster and remain in a win-now window.

In a perfect world the 2023-24 season would be Tavares' last on his current contract and Nylander would neatly slot into some of that cap space on an extension next season. But Tavares and his $11 million isn't going anywhere, so the Leafs will have a heck of a time figuring this all out.

I expect Nylander to easily approach $10 million AAV on his next contract, and perhaps get to Jonathan Huberdeau territory at $10.5 million.

Nylander has a modified (10 team) no-trade clause in his contract. If the Leafs feel they are a contending team by the trade deadline, it would be very difficult to move Nylander for anything close to equal value in return. It might not be good for business long term, especially if Nylander doesn’t sign an extension with the Leafs, but I doubt they're going to weaken themselves this season. Nylander will become the Leafs' “own rental" if he doesn't sign early.

Closing Thoughts

The Leafs will have 10 contracts coming off the books at the end of this season, so they could invest some of those dollars in a Nylander extension.

For example, TJ Brodie and John Klingberg’s combined salaries add up to $9.15 million. Toronto could invest $4 million of that in Nylander (getting him a $10.9 million AAV) and still have $5 million left over to shop for a replacement defenceman on the open market next summer. The cap should rise, too.

Ideally the Leafs would also fill a spot with an affordable prospect, and perhaps Topi Niemela will be ready for full time NHL duty by next fall to fill that other spot on the back end.