As we enter NHL draft week, followed closely thereafter by free agency on July 1, there is a lot of noise surrounding Winnipeg Jets prospect Rutger McGroarty.
"I’m gonna be really careful here because there are a lot of answers I don’t have. His family advisor is not talking and the Jets are not talking but the one thing I can tell you is that I have heard his name has come up in trade discussions," Elliotte Friedman said about McGroarty on the 32 Thoughts podcast Saturday.
"The Jets have discussed trading and other teams have discussed acquiring McGroarty’s rights...And again, I’m not gonna guess on anything here, but I’m simply going to say that I’ve heard his name has come up in trade conversations. So we’ll see where this all goes over the next couple of weeks. He’s a good player and he would be coveted.”
As I run around trying to get organized for my early morning flight to Vegas on Monday, I wanted to drop a quick analysis on what I believe McGroarty’s value is in relation to the current draft class. I also feel it’s important to provide an example of what I would be looking for in return if I were trading McGroarty to another team.
THE CUTTER GAUTHIER COMPARISON
Assuming the Jets are taking calls on McGroarty, the immediate comparison to draw upon is the situation the Philadelphia Flyers found themselves in with top prospect Cutter Gauthier.
Gauthier was selected fifth overall in 2022. He and the Flyers had some sort of falling out and Philly decided to move him to the Anaheim Ducks for defenceman Jamie Drysdale and a second-round pick in 2025.
The Jets selected McGroarty 14th overall in the same draft.
Here’s how both prospect’s stats compare over the course of two seasons since they were drafted:
On balance there are certainly some similarities between the two players statistically.
They both played top-six roles for their college teams and contributed to Team USA’s success at the World Juniors. McGroarty doesn’t skate as well as Gauthier, but he extends more plays out front of the net and has shown he can be used in a variety of roles, including the penalty kill.
Gauthier leans natural shooter more than playmaker. His skating is consistently better than McGroarty as well, although McGroarty’s agility has definitely improved over the course of two seasons.
TRADE VALUE
I’m comfortable trading McGroarty for one of the following players on my 2024 draft list:
• Sam Dickinson
• Beckett Sennecke
• Jett Luchanko
• Carter Yakemchuk
• Konsta Helenius
Since the Jets have invested two years of development in McGroarty and he might end up in the NHL next season, I would also ask for a third-round pick in 2025, a middle-six forward prospect, or a mid-range defence prospect.
Since I have roughly five attainable names on my draft list that I’m really comfortable acquiring in a trade for McGroarty, I'd wait to make the deal on the draft floor. I need to see how my list is falling into place before making the call.
I would make McGroarty available to New Jersey (10), Buffalo (11), Philadelphia (12), Minnesota (13) and San Jose (14), knowing full well that the Flyers are very likely to pass on the player given their recent experience with Gauthier. In my opinion, any pick after San Jose at 14 provides more risk of diminishing return from this draft class. If a deal can’t be made, the Jets can wait until next season and have McGroarty return to school for another year to find a more appropriate trade.
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