Scout's Analysis: Why the Maple Leafs need a defenceman by trade deadline

Over the past several weeks I have taken a look inside every Canadian NHL franchise. I have analyzed their NHL rosters, salary cap situations, draft capital, and highlighted some of their prospects.

Some of our readers have enjoyed the depth of the analysis, while others have commented the reads are too long for their liking.

It’s impossible for me to please everyone when diving into projects of this nature. My goal was to give readers as much of an inside look into what goes into the process of evaluating NHL organizations from a Hockey Operations perspective.

I’ve enjoyed the project and want to thank our readers for taking the time to consider what I have presented.

READ MORE: VAN | CGY | OTT | MTL | WPG | EDM

With that in mind, here’s a deep dive into the last Canadian franchise in my series: the Toronto Maple Leafs.

FORWARD CONTRACTS

Notes:

• Tavares has a full no-move clause for the duration of his contract.

• Kerfoot’s contract includes a 10-team no-trade list.

• Jarnkrok’s deal also has a 10-team no-trade included.

DEFENCE CONTRACTS

Notes:

• Rielly has a full no-move clause in his contract until 2028. It then becomes a 10-team no-trade list.

• Brodie’s no-move clause expires after this season. In the final year of his deal (2023-24) he has a 10-team no-trade clause.

• Holl has a modified no-trade (10-team) clause included in his expiring contract.

GOALIE CONTRACTS

LONG TERM INJURY RESERVE

NHL FORWARDS

Mitch Marner: Marner is a dynamic scoring forward who is used in all situations with the Leafs. There aren’t any secrets to his game. He has the ability to take over shifts offensively. He can also frustrate people with a turnover at key times in games. Over the course of his playoff career he has scored seven goals and 26 assists in 39 games. The Leafs are hoping he finds another level in his game this spring.

William Nylander: For me, Nylander has been the most polarizing player on this roster in the past. Having said that, I’ve been more satisfied with his body of work this season. Nylander could, arguably, be the most talented player on this roster. He plays quick and fast. He can also turn defenders inside out off the rush and from below the goal line. Playoffs are a “heavy/hard” time of year. Nylander scored three goals and four assists last spring versus Tampa Bay in the Leafs first-round loss. I’m more than satisfied with that kind of offence, but I’m also looking for him to be more of a consistent distraction and fight through more checks this playoff season.

John Tavares: The Leafs captain is on pace for around 80 points. He’s outstanding in the face-off circle, winning nearly 58% per cent of his draws. He’s proficient at tipping pucks from the deep slot on the power-play and leverages well around the crease to extend plays offensively. Tavares has never been an open ice burner at the NHL level. Moving him to the wing, with the recent acquisition of Ryan O’Reilly, is not the end of the world for the player. He doesn’t have to track the full 200 feet as often, and can still slide into the face-off circle to take draws.

Auston Matthews: His goal scoring is down this year, and he has missed a few games with injury, but an argument can be made he is playing his best all-round hockey for the Leafs. His element is his shot. He’s hard to handle off the rush and moving off the wall into high danger scoring areas in the offensive zone. Matthews has an impressive 71 shot blocks on the year, which leads the Leafs forwards and is third on the team overall. Considering he doesn’t penalty kill, it’s a stat that speaks to his increased attention to detail in the defensive zone. He’s played a much heavier game this season overall. Starting with the puck matters to coaches and Matthews wins 54 per cent of his face-offs.

Michael Bunting: There are nights I love his emotion and drive. There are also nights I wish he was less animated and more focused shift to shift. He can be hard to play against and a distraction for opponents. Sometimes he looks for calls that aren’t coming from officials (for a variety of reasons). At the end of the day I would rather talk a player down emotionally, compared to having to light a fire under him to get him going. Bunting benefits from playing an elevated role with the Leafs, but his linemates also benefit form his “rat” style. The team needs his game to go to another level in playoffs.

Ryan O'Reilly: The addition of O’Reilly cannot be understated. He brings veteran leadership in the dressing room, and winning pedigree on the ice. He gets from A to B quicker than Tavares, so moving Tavares to the wing to play alongside O’Reilly makes sense. O’Reilly was having a down year in St.Louis (the entire team has played below their standard) but he’s off to a nice start with the Leafs (3G, 2A). He’s being used in all situations, averaging 16minutes of ice time and winning 73 per cent of his face-offs.

Calle Jarnkrok: At times I forget that Jarnkrok is a veteran NHL player who is 31 years old and signed to a contract that ends when he will be nearing 35. He’s a youthful 31-year-old. He plays quick and can be trusted in a variety of roles. Jarnkrok is a streaky contributor offensively and he seems to produce his points in bunches. His 12 goals and 15 assists have come from averaging 14 minutes of ice time and being deployed in all situations. He’s a light player who doesn’t bring much bump to his game or block shots. Jarnkrok has spent some time in the Leafs top six, but in my opinion he is best defined as a middle six forward.

Alexander Kerfoot: Kerfoot is a pending UFA who is counting $3.5 million against the cap this season. He averages just shy of 15 minutes of ice time and is used in all situations (limited power-play). Kerfoot plays quick and fast. He can disrupt opponents when he tracks up ice quickly and doesn’t allow them to set up their break out. What he doesn’t do is take pucks to the hard areas on his own. He keeps, literally, 90 per cent of his time on the perimeter. He’s producing secondary offence (seven goals, 19 assists). Kerfoot is player I would look to move at the deadline and replace him with a heavier, more powerful, player. It won’t be easy, however. Kerfoot’s contract is armed with a modified no-trade (10-team) clause.

Pierre Engvall: Engvall is on an expiring contract and averages 13 minutes per game. He is mostly used at even strength and the second power-play unit, with some minimal contribution on the penalty kill. Engvall is a great skater for this stature (6-foot-5, 214 pounds), but he’s not physical (39 hits) and doesn’t sacrifice himself blocking shots (only five on the year!). He’s chipped in some secondary offence (12 goals, nine assists) and been credited with 98 shots on goal. The Leafs' playoff success might be decided by their depth. They need to get more bump and sacrifice out of players like Engvall come the hardest time of the year.

David Kampf: The team doesn’t require Kampf to carry much of the load offensively, but on occasion he has shown he can sneak up and produce a timely goal. What Kampf does best is win face-offs (53 per cent), defend responsibly, and match-up versus opponents' middle- (or top-) six forwards. He’s a trustworthy third line forward who averages 15 minutes of ice. Kampf is used at even strength and one of the primary penalty killing units. He plays to a reliable identity as a two-way and, at times, leaning defensive forward.

Noel Acciari: Since being acquired from St. Louis, Acciari is averaging 13 minutes of ice and being deployed at even strength and the penalty kill. He has 19 hits in five games. He’s easily establishing himself as the most physical player on the roster and playing to his identity. Acciari is a nice addition for the Leafs. He doesn’t need to contribute offence in his role. His heavy style and shot blocking should benefit the team further in playoffs. The Leafs are a harder team to play against with Acciari in the lineup. He’s on an expiring contract that pays him $1.25 million.

Zach Aston-Reese: Aston-Reese is also a pending UFA at the conclusion of the season, and averaging 11 minutes of ice time being deployed at even strength and the penalty kill. Before the arrival of Acciari, Aston-Reese led the Leafs forwards in hits. The combination of those two gives the team a fourth line that identifies as a physical group that is willing to pay the price in the trenches.

12TH/13TH FORWARDS

The Leafs have a range of players who come in and out of the lineup. A player like Wayne Simmonds is inserted when they feel they need another layer of physicality. Pontus Holmberg has been a nice surprise and shown he can chip in some offence while providing some energy with skill. Bobby McMann didn’t look out of place during his call-up and was snake bitten around the net. Alex Steeves is a player who can provide energy, compete, and possibly some offence. Dryden Hunt plays a straight forward style. He too can extend plays in the offensive zone and shows willingness to battle for pucks and engage physically.

NHL DEFENCEMEN

Morgan Rielly: Rielly is part of the Leafs' leadership group. He averages a reasonable 22:32 of ice time and is used in all situations. On the power-play he leans distributor more than shooter. Defensively, I describe him as “average plus”. He’s not overly physical and doesn’t block a ton of shots (47 hits, 59 shot blocks), but Rielly leads the Leafs' defence offensively with two goals and 27 assists and he’s directed 87 shots on goal. Rielly is signed to an extension that carries a very reasonable $7.5 million cap hit. He’s the kind of player who isn’t exceptional in any one category, but very good in most.

Mark Giordano: The grizzled veteran averages 19:30 of ice time per game and matches up against top forwards on a nightly basis. He isn’t a burner. He’s an average plus skater who occasionally gets turned around in his zone, resulting in tired legs from having to start/stop/regroup. There is no questioning his compete and attention to detail. His leadership in the dressing room, on the road, and at practice is invaluable. Giordano has only been credited with 43 hits this season, but he’s blocked 113 shots. It’s getting close to the end for Giordano. He will empty the tank this spring in playoffs, guaranteed.

Rasmus Sandin: Sandin is only 22 years old (turning 23 next month) and he’s still developing at the NHL level. One of the more surprising statistics on the Leafs roster belongs to Sandin, who is second amongst the defencemen with 113 hits. It’s the exact opposite statistic compared to Giordano. Sandin has 57 shot blocks and averages 18 minutes of ice skating at even strength and the power-play. He is clearly a distributor more than a shooter, but is capable of snapping a puck home from the flank – or middle of the high slot on occasion. I don’t love his defending. I sometimes feel his routes/angling is off, resulting in too much easy ice for opponents. He also tends to turn pucks over in key areas of the ice (all young NHL defenders go through the same growing pains). Sandin is a two-way/transitional defender by definition. He’s signed through 2023-24 to a contract that pays him $1.4 million against the cap. If he’s going to be used for 18-plus minutes in playoffs, Sandin better be prepared to continue to engage physically, and more importantly manage pucks the entire game.

Timothy Liljegren: Liljegren is an example of a player who is improving with more reps at the NHL level. His hockey brain has been a question mark for me in the past when he seemed to get caught between attempting to contribute offensively, pinching down to keep pucks alive, and unfortunately turning pucks over far too often. This season, though, and he is much improved across the board. Liljegren averages just shy of 19 minutes per game at even strength and the penalty-kill. He’s a fantastic skater who is showing some push back with 82 hits and 72 shot blocks. In short, he’s much more trustworthy. Liljegren is signed to the exact same contract as Sandin. In my opinion he is clearly defined as a two-way defenceman who can contribute some secondary offence (five goals and 10 assists), but elects to keep his game much more simple and safe. He’s figured out how to be a full-time NHL defender.

Justin Holl: There have been times in the past where I was critical of Holl. His game ranged wildly, especially in the playoffs versus Tampa Bay last spring. This season Holl has been more consistent overall and is third on the Leafs blue line averaging 21 minutes per game. The 6-foot-4, 210-pound defender has been credited with 116 hits and 100 shot blocks. When Holl keeps things simple with the puck, and keeps the play in front of him in all three zones, he has proven to be more trustworthy. Recently, however, he did suffer through a bit of a rough patch, resulting in a healthy scratch. Sheldon Keefe clearly likes Holl as a player. He stands up for him when questioned about Holl's defending, or his ability to match-up against top six opponents. Holl is on an expiring contract that carries a cap hit of $2 million. Less equals more with Holl.

T.J. Brodie: Brodie is the Leafs' swiss-army knife. He can play both sides, log big minutes at even strength and the penalty-kill, and match up against top lines at home and on the road. He quietly goes about his business.

Brodie is averaging 21 minutes per game. He’s an “area” defender who doesn’t bring much bump to the game (29 hits). He’s a very good skater who can chase down opponents off dump-ins, and retrieve and move pucks up ice efficiently. He also gets in the lane to block shots (66). Brodie will be leaned on heavily by the Leafs come spring. He has one more year on his contract with a $5 million cap hit.

Conor Timmins: Timmins has proven to be a sound acquisition for the Leafs. The 6-foot-2, 185-pound right shot defender has contributed when in the lineup. He gives the team some added depth. Timmins is a two-way defender who can manage pucks on one of the power-play units. He’s involved defensively, bumping opponents and blocking shots. I’m not sure he is an option to provide regular minutes come playoffs, but he can certainly match up in a reduced role versus bottom six opponents. Timmins has signed a two-year extension paying him $1.1 million starting next season.

Jordie Benn: Benn was brought in to provide some veteran depth. He’s suffered through some injuries and only skated in 12 games to date. His contract is due to expire at the end of the season ($750,000). If the Leafs are looking to make a deal for another defenceman, and require some cap relief, Benn might be the player the team moves out, and they did waive him over the weekend.

NHL GOALIES

Ilya Samsonov: Samsonov is clearly the goalie the Leafs would be leaning on if playoffs started today. He’s had a solid season overall and is tied for 10^th in NHL save percentage. His 2.30 goals-against average ranks seventh in the league. Overall, I’ve recognized better crease composure this season from Samsonov. In the past, especially in high leverage games, he was too busy and would scramble outside his posts too often (losing his net in the process). It has creeped into his game a bit recently, but not to the extent it has in the past.

Playoffs will be pressure packed, and it’s guaranteed the Round 1 opponent in the other net will be Andrei Vasilevskiy from Tampa Bay. The Leafs' goalies haven’t had to steal games in the regular season, but Samsonov will likely have to on occasion in the playoffs in order for the team to have success. Samsonov is a pending RFA with a qualifying offer is set at $1.8 million this off-season, but he has arbitration rights. If the Leafs go on a run this spring with Samsonov in net, he will cost them more than $1.8 million on his next deal.

Matt Murray: Murray has had his share of injuries again this season and only played 19 games. Early in the season I liked the look of his game. He was big in the net, squared up well, and had his rebound control in order. But when the game gets moving east/west in his zone he has moments where he lags behind, especially if pucks spill off his body and he’s forced to make desperation stops off to his side. I’m not sure where he is with injury, but he has definitely lost the net to Samsonov when he comes back. Murray’s stats have been respectable (2.73 GAA, .911 SV%). He has another year left on his contract, costing the Leafs $4.687 million against their cap. I’m ready to move off Murray this summer, but that is a conversation for another day.

Erik Kallgren: Kallgren has had a tough year. His stats in the AHL (3.25 GAA, .885 SV%) has allowed Joseph Woll to go right past him on the Leafs depth chart. Toronto has Dennis Hildeby under contract, and he's playing for Farjestad in Sweden's SHL, where he has a 2.08 GAA and .911 save percentage. Hildeby is likely to arrive in Toronto to play for the Marlies next fall. With that, and since Kallgren is a pending RFA, I don’t see Toronto qualifying him this off-season.

Joseph Woll: Woll was an AHL all-star this winter and his statistics tell the story (2.31 GAA, .931 SV%). He’s currently backing up Samsonov on the Leafs roster. Woll has worked hard on his game over the years. The 6-foot-2, 198-pound goalie plays a butterfly/hybrid style and he looks ready to challenge for a full-time back up role next fall. Woll is signed through 2024-25) with a cap hit of just $766,667.

TWO PROSPECTS

Here’s a look at two of Toronto’s top prospects and how they have been trending. These are the scouting cards I have generated for the two players based off my viewings of them:

TORONTO'S NEED TO ADD A DEFENCEMAN

It’s my personal opinion that the Leafs are well-positioned up front, especially following the additions of Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari.

They now need to round out their roster with another defenceman. The team has got the most out of their current group, but playoffs present (as they know) a different set of challenges. They have the cap space to add, too. The issue becomes which assets they are willing to give up in another trade to bolster their lineup, and improve their chance at playoff success this spring.

POTENTIAL TARGETS

Jake McCabe: The left shot defenceman from the Chicago Blackhawks is best defined as a two-way blueliner. He’s been credited with 122 hits, 115 blocked shots and would immediately become the leader in both categories with the Leafs. His cap hit is $4 million and his contract has term (signed through 2024-25). McCabe would have to agree to come to Toronto since he has a modified no trade (seven-team) clause in his deal.

Mattias Ekholm: Ekholm is one of the older options on this list as he turns 33 in May. He also has term left on his current contract that costs $6.2 million against the cap and expires at the conclusion of the 2025-26 season. He is used in all situations in Nashville, but I don’t see him contributing on the power-play in Toronto. Ekholm is an efficient defender who has range to take away space. He also gets in the lane to block shots. Ekholm has never been a “pretty” player to watch in motion, but he gets everywhere on time. He’s been part of the leadership group in Nashville for several years.

Jakob Chychrun: The Leafs have the cap space to add Chychrun to their roster. The question will come down to cost. Chychrun is a two-way defenceman who can add a layer offensively by joining the rush. He’s an average defender (sometimes average plus). He skates very well, has good size, and isn’t shy about leaning on opponents and blocking shots. The majority of his ice time comes at even strength and the power-play. He has a sharp release from the flank and the middle of the ice. He’s the youngest player on this list (turning 25 in March) and the one with the most upside moving forward. His current contract is very affordable ($4.6 million) and doesn’t expire until the end of the 2024-25 season.

POTENTIAL COST TO ACQUIRE

TORONTO TRADES: 2025 first-rounder, 2024 fourth-rounder, Topi Niemela
CHICAGO TRADES: Jake McCabe

Note: Blackhawks retain 50 per cent of McCabe's contract. That retention is as much about future cost certainty for the Leafs as it is about saving money at the deadline and potentially adding another depth player elsewhere in the lineup. If they decide they don’t want the Blackhawks to retain any of McCabe’s salary, the Leafs would take the fourth-round pick off the table in this deal. Chicago would have two first-round picks on their draft board in each of the next three drafts if they agreed to this transaction.

TORONTO TRADES: 2024 first-round pick, Topi Niemela
NASHVILLE TRADES: Mattias Ekholm

Note: Nashville retains 30 per cent of Ekholm's contract.

TORONTO TRADES: Matthew Knies, Rasmus Sandin, 2024 fourth-round pick, Ottawa's 2024 seventh-round pick
ARIZONA TRADES: Jakob Chychrun, Nick Bjugstad

Note: Arizona retains 50 per cent of Chychrun's contract. Bjugstad is a 6-foot-6, 207-pound right shot forward who can play both the middle and the wing. He averages 17 minutes of ice time per game and can be used in all situations (if required). More importantly, in my opinion, he brings an extra layer of physicality to the bottom of the Leafs lineup. Bjugstad has been credited with 119 hits so far this year. He’s on an expiring contract, too.