Senators defeat Lightning with playoff-winning formula

OTTAWA — It's now the time of the season when we can speculate about how a regular matchup translates to a potential playoff duel.

The Ottawa Senators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1 for their first win without captain Brady Tkachuk this season.

No Brady, no problem.

It was also a game that exemplified how the Senators will need to play to beat the Lightning if the two meet in the playoffs later this month. A tight-checking, low-event hockey game with a playoff-like intensity.

On paper, Tampa Bay has an edge in starpower, special teams and, well, Stanley Cups. But the Senators split the season series, even though they only iced a fully healthy squad in one of the four games.

It's easy to overanalyze and deduce too much from a season series, but these games can give some insight into how the teams stack up. Right now, Tampa Bay has a 39.4 per cent chance of winning the Atlantic Divison and Ottawa has an 88.4 per cent chance of becoming the first wild card, according to MoneyPuck.com. Safe to say, there’s a real chance the two square off.

And if that happens, the first key for the Senators to have any chance in the series is clear.

Shut down Nikita Kucherov.

"Hopefully, he has a bad day. I wish I knew how to stop (Kucherov)," said Linus Ullmark post-game. "There's a reason why he puts up 100 points this season. It's not a fluke."

For the Senators, the antidote to stopping Kucherov in the playoffs is the line of Ridly Greig, Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio.

“I love it,” Pinto told Sportsnet.ca about shutting down top opponents.

Pinto and his linemates were exemplary against Kucherov’s line on Thursday, batting down pucks, winning battles and blocking shots to force the Lightning's leading scorer to have a rare pointless night. 

"It's kind of our go-to line all year," said Green post-game about matching the Pinto line up against Kucherov. "When it comes to matchups, I think they take pride in it. They're all capable of it. They all bring different elements to the game. I thought they were outstanding tonight."

The Pinto line gives up 2.09 expected goals allowed per 60 minutes at five-on-five, which ranks 51st in the NHL, according to MoneyPuck.com.

They can also score, as Pinto demonstrated after taking a silky pass from Greig to put the Senators up 1-0. It's a luxury to have a third line that is so good defensively and has combined for 40 goals this season. In comparison to Tampa Bay's third line of Yanni Gourde-Oliver Bjorkstrand and Gage Goncalves, which has combined for nine fewer goals than Ottawa's third line this season. 

But Green wasn’t messing around with his utilization of the third line, either.

All evening, the coach went out of his way to deploy his matchup trio against Kucherov. Once, Green even immediately took off the fourth line seconds after throwing them on the ice, only to be replaced by Pinto's triad because the Kucherov line had jumped over the boards at the same time.

Unfortunately for Green, Pinto was out of the lineup for Ottawa’s two defeats in Tampa Bay earlier this season with an injury. Ottawa was exposed, and Kucherov, Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point dominated, combining for six points in the two games.

But Tampa Bay is more than just their top line. From Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli to the blue line led by Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh, the Lightning are incredibly talented in front of Andrei Vasilevskiy.

The concern for Ottawa even after Tkachuk returns will be that in every area the Lighting are dominant, the Senators struggle. Tampa Bay is better at five-on-five play, special teams and overall team defence.

According to Natural Stat-Trick

The Lightning are just flat-out a good team, but the Senators were up for the challenge on Thursday.

Despite the season-long trends, Ottawa won the special teams battle by scoring one powerplay goal and killing off all three of Tampa Bay's advantages. Ottawa earns and gives away power plays at a high rate — they've drawn the most penalties in the NHL but have taken the ninth most. That could be a double-edge sword in the playoffs, when the whistles (mostly) go away, because the Senators have struggled to score at five-on-five.

Goaltenders like Vasilevskiy don't make it easy for anyone to score. But the Senators have a counterbalance to that challenge, too. Linus Ullmark made 31 saves in the win Thursday, including multiple high-danger stops in the final minutes.

"We don't win that game (without Ullmark)," said Pinto. "So that's the type of goalie he is. And just happy he's on our side."

So, while statistically, the Lightning have the edge over the Senators across the board, Thursday's victory was a reminder that the games are played on the ice.

A low-scoring game, with great goaltending, defensive structure and winning the special team’s battle is the formula for the Senators to beat the Lightning in a potential playoff series.

Now, can they replicate it?