Senators mid-season report: A lot to prove after disappointing first half

With 42 games played, the Ottawa Senators are still far behind most teams in the GP category. Unfortunately, they are also trailing badly in points earned. 

In Saturday’s 2-1 overtime loss to Winnipeg, the Sens officially hit the halfway mark of the NHL season. Sunday’s 5-3 win in Philadelphia was the first game of a second half that the Senators organization believe will be a better indication of the team’s future. 

KEY STATS

Record: 17-24-1 (29th in NHL with 35 points)

Goals per game: 3.38 (10th in NHL)

Goals against per game: 3.67 (30th in NHL)

Power play: 15.6 per cent (24th in NHL)

Penalty kill: 72.7 per cent (31st in NHL)

BEST SURPRISE: RIDLY GREIG

During their rebuild, the Senators have tended to over-hype their draft picks. So, perhaps it’s not surprising that a 28th-overall pick who flew under the radar has turned out to be one of Ottawa’s most pleasant surprises this season. Greig, who earned an opportunity for a bigger role with centre Shane Pinto suspended for the entire first half, has impressed both of his head coaches with his tenacity and steady play — first D.J. Smith and then interim head coach Jacques Martin. Projected to be a third or fourth-line centre, Greig was able to jump up to the top two lines when Josh Norris got hurt. 

Now that Pinto is back in the lineup along with Norris, Greig has been shifted over to left wing because Martin wants him in a top-six role. That doesn’t mean he won’t eventually move back to centre, perhaps with Norris on the wing. Greig provides an element of grit that no other centre on the team possesses, and he has contributed on the scoresheet with six goals and 17 points in 32 games played. At 21, Greig still has upside and looks to be just the kind of pesky centre the Senators could use in the playoffs — when they finally get there. 

Honourable mention: Mathieu Joseph

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: INABILITY TO SUSTAIN A WINNING STYLE OF PLAY

The Senators have teased us with their capability. You can point to certain victories — over Toronto, Detroit and the New York Rangers among others and say: this Ottawa roster can compete with good teams. But the collapses in the first half were monumental. Poor starts. Blown leads. A fragile team psyche. Two major road trips of five games and each were disastrous — 10 losses and zero wins or loser points — 20 points discarded when just a .500 mark on the road could have kept the Sens in the hunt for a wild-card spot. Instead, they would need to play .750 hockey in the second half to have a shot. 

It is instructive to look back at the midway point of last season. The Senators actually had better numbers — 41 points in 41 games while displaying excellent special teams — sixth overall in both the power play (27.1 per cent) and penalty kill (82.4 per cent). What happened? As much as it is convenient to blame goaltending — with both Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg possessing ugly stats — the Senators' overall lack of confidence and execution has bled from their five-on-five game to special teams. With the skill Ottawa can put on a power play, there is no excuse for being in the bottom quarter of the league. And second last in PK? That’s just positioning and effort. 

BIG QUESTION FOR THE SECOND HALF: WHO ARE THE REAL SENATORS?

That team that stormed back against Philadelphia on Sunday to steal a win on the road, the one that outplayed Winnipeg despite losing in overtime — and the team that whipped Montreal last Thursday at home: Are they the real Sens, finally getting their act together?

Or will it be more of the same — a few bright flashes and then a relapse into inconsistent play?

In what is essentially a 40-game audition for next season, it is critical for new general manager Steve Staios to figure out what kind of team he has and what pieces fit versus which are expendable. It’s clear the Senators will move a few veteran players at the trade deadline, but will there be a young “core” player moved as well, either at the deadline or at the draft?

For the first time, we have independent evaluators assessing this roster: a GM and a VP of hockey operations (Dave Poulin) who did not draft or otherwise acquire any of these players. 

In the second half, we will find out what Ottawa’s management team thinks of what it has inherited.  

They will need to be wary of Fool’s Gold — that tendency for Ottawa teams to put on a push in the second half when the pressure is off. Last season, the Sens earned 45 points in the latter half of the season to pull within six points of a playoff spot. The thinking was that the lessons learned and improved play would carry over to this season. 

What a disappointment that there was no carryover. Just another enigmatic display that had fans scratching their heads and new management trying to sort out the puzzle.