Senators' playoff chances take a hit after another difficult November

When do you hit the panic button as a Senators fan? Uh, maybe, now?

Having lost five of their six previous games, the Senators headed out west to face low-level competition in San Jose and Anaheim, and play L.A. on the second night of a back-to-back. Fans, players and presumably management hoped for better than 1-1-1.

However, here we are. November is finally over, and the playoff chances become thinner by the game when you have a 10-12-1 record, as the Senators do.

An analogy:  it’s like trying to win a skating race with friends down the length of Ottawa’s Rideau Canal to Parliament Hill. Only you start at Dow’s Lake and your friends start at Lansdowne Park. It’s doable but you have come from behind to pass a lot of people.

On the upside, the Senators don’t have to pass a Murderers' row of opponents. They are chasing the eight teams who are all within two games above or below .500.

*Boston is in a Divisional playoff spot but would not be in a playoff spot based on points percentage.

In previous seasons (for some unknown reason) November has been the Senators’ worst month. This November, they manufactured a 5-8-1 record, earning their most wins in the month since 2018-19 but finished with the worst points percentage in the NHL at .390. Nothing to smile about but their historically ruinous month is done.

Senators’ statistics in November.

So, what are the Senators’ chances of making the playoffs?

They are currently five points out of the last wild-card spot.

In the last nine seasons, not including the Covid seasons (2019-20 and 2020-21), there have been a total of 32 teams that have made the playoffs after being outside a playoff spot at American Thanksgiving.

There was a spectacular example last season. The Oilers had a putrid 2-9-1 start. They needed the second-longest winning streak of all time — 16 games — to scratch back into the playoffs. But then they flew to the Stanley Cup finals.

Also worth noting, the St. Louis Blues were 9-13-1 on Dec. 1 2018, only to go on an unbelievable heater to make the playoffs and then win the Stanley Cup.

Finally, next spring will be the 10-year anniversary of the Hamburglar run, when rookie goalie Andrew Hammond went 10-1-1 to start his career. Coincidence?

In each of those cases, the team’s play drastically changed in the final 55-60 games after U.S. Thanksgiving. Hope is what all fans yearn for and there still is time to believe.

Hockey Reference currently gives the Senators a 21.8 per cent chance of making the playoffs and Moneypuck.com gives them a 31.3 per cent chance.

Right now, Columbus has the eighth-best points percentage in the Eastern conference at .543 and are in a playoff spot, while on pace for 89 points. The Senators would need a .577 points percentage and a record of 32-22-3 in their final 58 games to achieve 89 points and match Columbus’ current percentage.

What can the Senators do to turn this around? First, go on a winning streak, which so far this season the team has failed to do. 

What needs to change?

On Sunday night, the Senators gave up a goal with five seconds left in the first period against Anaheim. It was due to a comedy of errors from an ill-advised Jake Sanderson pinch at his own blueline, to Michael Amadio not picking up Jackson Lacombe in front of the net, who scored off his own rebound to give Anaheim a 2-1 lead.

It’s part of a pattern of giving up ill-timed goals. The Senators give up goals in bunches, at the beginning and end of periods, and often right after tying or taking a lead in a game.

Ottawa has given up two goals within five minutes on 10 occasions this season in their 24 games.

Meanwhile, their penalty kill hasn’t been helping, allowing five goals in the last five games, falling to 24^th in the NHL.  

Finally, scoring from the Senators’ bottom six and their defence has become dryer than a California desert. They’ve totalled 11 goals from bottom-six players not named Adam Gaudette. Meanwhile, the defence has contributed four goals in 24 games, with no one scoring more than one.

But there was a bright spot during this trip. Nick Cousins tied the game against the Anaheim Ducks in the third period with his first goal in 14 games to help ensure the Senators’ salvaged a point.

Depth scoring is sorely needed. 

On the upside, it helps when your best players step up. Both Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle carried their team on their backs in the past couple games. Stützle has registered at least a point in nine of his last 10 games. Tkachuk threw 12 shots on net against Anaheim, tying a career high, and scored two hugely important goals to get the game all squared. He has registered a point in 19 of 24 games. His team is 1-4-0 in games where he doesn't record a point, while 9-8-2 when he does record at least one.

And another positive is that it looks like goalie Linus Ullmark has finally started to lock in. He is looking like former Senators great Craig Anderson, who seemingly played better the more shots he faced. Ullmark has stopped 67 of 73 shots in his last two starts.

The Senators aren’t out of the playoff hunt, but they have to start doing a lot of things a little better to get where they want to go. 

The importance of Adam Gaudette

Gaudette leads the league in goals-per-60-minutes played with his 12 goals in 24 games, including a heavenly tip for the winning goal against the Sharks.

The 28-year-old was waived by Ottawa to begin the season, and all 31 teams passed on the journeyman forward from Taunton, Mass. He had scored 44 goals in the AHL last season but had a reputation for not being responsible defensively.

To play in the NHL, the one variable that might have the largest impact that can propel you or sink you is confidence.

“You guys keep asking if I'm surprised, I don't mean to sound cocky or anything, but I'm not,” said Gaudette earlier this week about his hot start to the season. “I've been thinking about these past couple days. I was able to do this at every level, high school and college hockey.  Every step of the way it took me a little bit of time, but I managed to do it, and it was only a matter of time before I was able to do it at this level.”

Where would the Senators be without Gaudette? Serious question.

Adam Gaudette’s statistics on the Senators this season

Maybe some of it is luck. Gaudette has a 36.4 percent shooting percentage, scoring 12 goals on 33 shots. That is probably not sustainable.

However, despite his reputation, Gaudette isn’t just scoring, he’s playing an overall defensive game that his coach has preached. In a matter of minutes to begin the game against the L.A., Gaudette blocked three shots. He has a plus/minus of plus-3 on the season.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, he tracked back to steal a puck on the forecheck in the first period to almost create a goal. He has scored four goals in his last four games since moving up from the bottom six to the top six.

 Gaudette hasn’t carried the shot share as much when playing in the top six. When Gaudette was on the fourth line with Cousins and Zack MacEwan, they outshot opponents 111 to 90 at five-on-five. Recently, when playing on the wing with Stützle and either Tkachuk or Giroux, the Senators have outshot opponents 55 to 52 with Gaudette on the ice.

Will his production continue at this rate? Probably not.

Is he a good, effective NHLer who can help the Senators win games? Emphatically, yes.