Senators streak ends, but no reason to hit the panic button just yet

OTTAWA — Ottawa Senators players, management, coaches and fans hate nothing more than losing to the Montreal Canadiens (well, maybe the Toronto Maple Leafs too). This time the tilt between foes had a lot on the line: a playoff spot.

All good things come to an end, as Ottawa’s eight-game point streak was halted with Montreal’s 6-3 victory on Tuesday in the form of a third-period comeback.

It’s not time to hit the panic button, Sens Army. Let’s put it in perspective.

Ottawa’s chances of making the playoffs, according to Moneypuck.com, are as of Wednesday morning 95.6 per cent, but it was an opportunity missed. Not all is lost. Of Ottawa’s last 15 games, 10 are at home, where the Senators have are 20-9-2, compared to five on the road, where Ottawa is 16-17-2. Ottawa has been a substantially better home than road team; also, it has the easiest remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon.

However, the Senators' play against Montreal accentuated some of their flaws that have been masked over in the recent victories.

First, all season, Ottawa has struggled to make crisp line changes, which have resulted in countless opportunities and goals for opponents. In late November, Ridly Greig took a too-many-men penalty that resulted in the Los Angeles Kings finishing off the Senators on the ensuing power play. It happened again Tuesday night in the first period against Montreal, when Travis Hamonic made a horrible line change that led to a Christian Dvorak breakaway in which he deked out Linus Ullmark to open the scoring.  

It’s not the first time a poor change was punished in Ottawa’s recent hot stretch. In their previous game against the Leafs, the Senators had a poorly timed change that led to William Nylander scoring against a discombobulated defence. Against Washington earlier this month, late in the third Ottawa was burned by a poor line change following a power play. Not sure how you clean that up if you’re head coach Travis Green, but it needs to be corrected.

Meanwhile, since the beginning of March, when Ottawa went 7-0-1 prior to Tuesday night’s game, Ottawa had been repeatedly outshot and outplayed at five-on-five despite players such as Michael Amadio and Dylan Cozens thriving. In that period, Ottawa was outshot 271-309 at five-on-five while having the 23rd-ranked Corsi and the 20th-ranked expected goals share in the league, which is below its overall season ranking. In the third period on Tuesday, Montreal dominated at five-on-five 11-4, leading to both Lane Hutson and Josh Anderson tying the game at 2-2 and 3-3.

Recently, the Senators have been the comeback kings, with five comebacks in their recent point streak. But that was never going to be sustainable. Once again against Montreal, they fell behind early. This time, Ottawa was burned, dropping 2-1 and 3-2 leads in the third period, but that would seem to be an outlier. Heading into the game, Ottawa was 26-1-1 when having a lead going into the final frame. Good news is it hasn’t been a pattern for the Senators; bad news it occurred at a bad time.

What Ottawa must avoid is the on-again, off-again streaks they’ve had this season. During the first 15 games of the season, Ottawa never won or lost more than two in a row. Since then, the Senators have flip-flopped between winning and losing streaks.

As of Wednesday, Ottawa is in a position where going .500 in its final 15 games would almost assuredly put it in the playoffs, but going 5-10-0 would push them out. The New York Rangers are five points behind Ottawa with 13 games left. If New York gets hot down the stretch by finishing 9-3-1, the Rangers would finish with 91 points. Comparatively, if Ottawa went 7-7-1, it would finish with 92 points. Ottawa missed a huge opportunity to certainly plant its flag in the playoffs with a win over Montreal.

There were some positives against Montreal. Amadio scored his eighth goal in the last 16 games, which tied him with Brady Tkachuk over that span, and Greig and Shane Pinto have combined for 17 points in that same time period.

The Amadio-Pinto-Greig line has been on a tear, demonstrating that they might be one of the best third lines in the league. Some observers from outside Ottawa might look to their analytics and say that the line has been consistently outshot. Which is true. So, how can the line be that good?

Well, when you look under the hood, you find interesting results based on score effects. Simply defined, "score effects" are how the score of a game changes the dynamic of play. For example, Green uses the Greig-Pinto-Amadio line to shut down teams, thus they will be in the defensive end for faceoffs quite often and are more likely to get outshot. That’s exactly what happens: the line's analytics are better when the team is tied or losing because they aren’t tasked with as many defensive zone tasks.

 According to Natural StatTrick at five-on-five

It hasn’t just been the third line that’s been effective. Cozens has been a breath of fresh air, as Adam Vingan wrote on his effectiveness since joining the Senators.

Cozens has been a centre who can score in the dirty areas, can make quick plays and, most importantly, drives play. Or as Drake Batherson said on the broadcast on Tuesday after the first intermission, Cozens does “everything.” As good as Josh Norris was and is, he was more of a scorer and finisher than playmaker.

Batherson’s goal against Montreal exemplified Cozens’ ability to facilitate for his linemates. Cozens made a nifty spinning backhand pass in his own end that led Batherson onto a transition break to score. The duo has taken off together, combining for 10 points in the first six games together in Ottawa. Cozens’ has had chemistry with Batherson from their time playing together at the 2022 IIHF World Championships.

“I think it's really important,” Cozens told Sportsnet.ca about having familiarity. “You don't have to think as much. You know where the guy's going to be. You know the spots that he likes to be in, and just it's easy to play off each other.”

Adams' Apples

• New Senator Fabian Zetterlund has been known for his incredible deadlifting abilities, for the five-foot-11, human "cigarette machine" as Paul Bissonnette called him on Sportsnet’s trade deadline broadcast. Zetterlund was quick to remind Sportsnet.ca that he deadlifted 660 pounds, not 600 pounds, with a wry smirk and that he wanted to do it to prove to himself that he could. Like many of us, Zetterlund doesn’t claim to deadlift 660 pounds consistently.

• Ottawa has sorely missed Nick Jensen, who has been dealing with a lower-body injury since the new year and has missed the last two games. Throughout the season, Jensen has been missing practices.

“I’ve never really gone through anything like I have been recently,” Jensen told Sportsnet.ca after the 4 Nations Face-Off.  

“It's kind of a day-by-day thing right now, we're feeling. Trying to keep the focus on what was making me successful early in the year, while kind of managing what my body is feeling.”

• Shoutout to Hamonic, who scored his first goal in 76 games and almost had two goals but tallied an assist as well. Hamonic's propensity for taking slapshots at every opportunity worked out against Montreal. I've has bemoaned Green’s decision to play Hamonic over Nikolas Matinpalo and Jacob Bernard-Docker. However, to his credit, with Jensen’s absence, his underlying numbers when paired with Thomas Chabot this season are almost identical to Chabot’s numbers with Jensen. Hammer time.