Six big areas of concern for Maple Leafs as North Division lead shrinks

TORONTO – The other guys get paid, too.

So, when looking at why the Toronto Maple Leafs’ torrid early season pace has given way to a slink back to the pack, we acknowledge that the Edmonton Oilers (42 points) and Winnipeg Jets (40) deserve credit for their climbs to within striking distance of the North Division crown.

To envision Toronto (idle at 42 points) running away laughing with the top seed would’ve not only been foolish, it may not have been the best-case scenario for the Leafs themselves.

Adversity breeds resilience.

“We’re getting teams’ best every night. When we got off to the start that we did in the season, it gets everybody’s attention. And I think that shows that teams respect us and know that we’re a good team, and you’re gonna see teams’ best because of it,” wise veteran Jason Spezza says.

“It’s not fundamental changes we have to make. We just have to batten down our habits a little bit and be a little more confident in our play.”

And while Rocket contender Auston Matthews’ production has cooled off as he deals with a sore wrist (no goals in his past four games and only three in his past 11), we’re far less concerned with individual ebbs than we are the bigger-picture trends in need of improvement.

Here are six topics of uncertainty for the Leafs as the other guys nip at their heels.

Health in the nets

For all the flak Frederik Andersen has absorbed from the fanbase in March, the Maple Leafs rate 10th in team save percentage (.909) with Andersen carrying the lion’s share of the load.

Now that Campbell is back in action, getting and keeping both goaltenders healthy will be of paramount importance during a hectic stretch run that’ll see the club play 24 games in 45 days.

One goaltender, no matter how hot, is not enough for that pace. And both have been dealing with lingering lower-body issues. Andersen (officially day-to-day) couldn’t dress Saturday, missed Monday’s practice and is doubtful for Tuesday’s practice.

“There may not be much decision to be made for me,” coach Sheldon Keefe says of Thursday’s starter. “The goalies themselves, based on their health, that may determine it for us.”

Toronto’s uncertainty between the pipes stands out when you look at the consistency in goal other bona fide contenders (Tampa, Vegas, Colorado, Islanders) are bringing.

Penalty kill has been getting killed

Lately, Toronto’s special teams have looked anything but.

Following Saturday’s slump-busting shutout of the Calgary Flames and all those Jack Campbell headlines, it was telling that Spezza pointed to the Leafs’ 3-for-3 performance on the penalty kill as a major contributor to victory.

For the fourth consecutive season, Toronto’s PK is in decline. A weak kill was a major contributor to the Leafs’ seven-game skid without a regulation win. Opponents tore up 5-on-4 situations to the tune of eight goals in 17 attempts.

Big yikes.

Toronto’s penalty kill has tumbled to 76.1 per cent (20th leaguewide), yet Keefe sees the positive building blocks.

Having Spezza take D-zone draws on the kill has helped with early clears, and the coach notes that Toronto ranks among the league leaders in the least amount of time spent in their own end while short-handed.

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“It’s when it’s time to defend, some of our details we want to clean up,” Keefe says. “You know, getting a clear and getting the puck all the way down the ice when that opportunity is available. Finishing right to through to the very end. We’ve had a number of pucks that have gone in on us in the final 30 seconds (of) some kills where we’ve actually done a really good job but then just didn’t finish it.”

The Leafs rank among the bottom third in blocks. Increased urgency to clog the lanes, in every situation, would serve them well.

The question here: How much will come down to existing personnel committing to the job? And how inspired will Kyle Dubas be to seek PK help elsewhere?

Even if the GM elects not to pay the price for a big fish like Mattias Ekholm, the rental market offers depth players who could improve his 4-on-5 roster.

You want names? Detroit’s Luke Glendening, Anaheim’s Derek Grant and Columbus’s Nick Foligno up front. Columbus’s David Savard, Dallas’s Jamie Oleksiak, Detroit’s Marc Staal and New Jersey’s Dmitry Kulikov on the back end.

That the Leafs’ sixth defenceman, Travis Dermott, doesn’t see use on either special-teams unit has us wondering.

Power play needs a boost

Expecting the Maple Leafs’ heavily weaponized power play to continue rolling along at the 40 per cent clip it stormed into January with was unrealistic. And a 27.7 per cent (fourth overall) performance at 5-on-4 is nothing to sneeze at.

That said, Toronto’s PP has quietly slipped into an 0-for-13 funk, producing just one goal in the past eight games. You have to go all the way back to 2018-19 to spot a dry spell like this one.

Some causes are easily explainable. Matthews’ sore wrist has hindered the top unit’s most dangerous flank shooter, and a fearless net presence was missed when Wayne Simmonds was sidelined.

The answers for this must come from within, and we’re confident they’ll get clicking again.

But! Toronto needs to find ways to give its elite PP more kicks at the can.

The Leafs rank 20th in penalties drawn (3.39 per game) — not ideal for a group that has built its identity on offensive skill.

“We can hang on to the puck more and look to challenge for better ice. I think that’s a big part of it,” Keefe says. “Sometimes you can’t really control what the standard is on a particular night in terms of how the officials are going to call it, but you can definitely challenge more and hang on the pucks more and try to make it harder on the defenders. I think there’s been too many times where we’re too quick to give up the puck and we haven’t stressed the defenders enough.”

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Too many costly turnovers

Could the Leafs have used a couple more save from Andersen during their slide back to the pack? Sure.

But they could’ve also benefitted with some cleaner zone exits and smarter puck management. Risk is inherent in the fast, creative brand of hockey Toronto prides itself on, but the fact the Leafs give the puck away more than any other club (according to NHL.com stats) is concerning.

The Leafs’ rate of 12.16 giveaways per game will get them eliminated come playoff time if it doesn’t come down.

We think of their recent miniseries against the Jets and how Toronto dominated the run of play. But a few bad cough-ups led to odd-man rushes and Grade-A chances against elite finishers. That’s all it takes.

“We definitely want to get better in that area. Puck management is a big deal, something we look a lot at,” Keefe says. The Leafs track these metrics on their own and gather data from third parties.

“I think there’s a lot of disparity around the NHL in how the NHL stats are tracked, and we’ve looked at that. I’m not quite sure what is a turnover or giveaway or takeaway or a hit. There’s a lot of variance there. So, it’s a dangerous game to get into when you’re looking at those things. But there’s a lot of other (data) out there that’ll point to the fact that we can grow in the area you’re talking about.”

Comeback kids, they are not

For the young and wild Leafs of seasons past, no lead was safe — yours or theirs.

Such unpredictability has changed lately, as Toronto has become more efficient at locking down tight games. But it has also struggled to complete comebacks of its own, no matter how early Keefe pulls the goalie. The Leafs aren’t getting many loser points (two).

In 2021, Toronto has just a .375 points percentage when trailing after the first period. By comparison, Tampa Bay leads the NHL in those situations at .625.

When trailing after 40 minutes, Toronto is 1-7 (.125).

Keefe places high emphasis on the opening goal and dictating style and tempo with the lead. His best plans and line combos typically get juggled fast when the Leafs don’t strike first.

“Obviously, that’s been a major issue here for us in this little stretch is that we’ve been playing from behind. In virtually every game (prior to Saturday’s win) we’ve been trailing. That’s tough,” Keefe says. (When) the first shot on net goes in, mentally that’s a tough hurdle for guys to get over.”

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Waiver drain continues as lines remain in flux

The positive to Keefe’s frequent tweaking of his forward lines — game to game, period to period — is that the coach is forever searching for the optimal lineup, that he’s willing to experiment and won’t be rigid in deployment.

The negative is that we’re more than halfway through the season and easy solutions — aside from “Throw Hyman on there!” — haven’t revealed themselves.

The Matthews-Mitch Marner and John Tavares-William Nylander pairings seem in stone, but Dubas is looking for middle-six help as an organization once abundant in NHL forwards has been leaking them.

“All the players know that the season and the schedule are unforgiving, and we’ve got to find ways to optimize the lineup,” Keefe says.

Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson were dealt for cap space and futures in the off-season. And now two cap-friendly forwards, Jimmy Vesey and Travis Boyd, were lost to rival Vancouver on waivers. Further, valued veterans like Spezza and Joe Thornton have been forced to play back-to-backs simply because there’s no cap space to give their bones a rest.

The ability to roll four lines, like during the Calgary win, will serve Keefe’s bunch well in the face of a tightening schedule. Dubas, no doubt, is on a mission to help balance the group up front.

“Great depth is something championship teams have, and being able to provide scoring throughout the lineup is very important,” Hyman says. “It also helps with team morale and team chemistry when everybody feels like they’re contributing to the team. You don’t need to just score goals. You can contribute in other ways. But it’s always fun to score.”

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