Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2 Preview: Seattle's depth or Dallas' star power?

It wasn’t enough just to get into the playoffs.

For the Seattle Kraken, one year removed from a dismal inaugural campaign in which their only hopes of winning involved lottery balls, their first trip to the post-season needed a little more drama than that.

Ousting the reigning Stanley Cup champions in Game 7, on their own home ice? Yeah, that certainly did the trick.

The Kraken have been exceeding expectations all season long, and while their Round 1 victory was among the biggest first-round surprises that had no shortage of upsets, maybe we shouldn’t have been so surprised.

While Seattle’s is not a roster that screams star power, we re-learn every spring that depth is, ultimately, the key to success. Kraken hockey is driven by exactly that — and, sure, the hot hand of goaltender Philipp Grubauer definitely helped, too.

Depth. Discipline. And now, on to Dallas.

The Star power is strong in Dallas, with Roope Hintz leading all NHLers in playoff points after Round 1 and Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen making their presence known every play. Jake Oettinger, whose heroics were on full display against Calgary last year, locked down the crease to close out the Minnesota Wild in six games this spring, letting in just three goals in the final three games of the first-round series (including a shutout in Game 5 to push them to the brink).

That hard-hitting series has the Stars bruised up heading into Round 2 but playing their best hockey. They need to be at their best when Seattle comes to town, and if these clubs’ regular-season meetings are any indication, we’re in for some high-scoring affairs. And overtime. Two of their three matchups required extra time, with each club taking one OT victory.

So, what’s in store for this Round 2 series? Here’s what you need to know.

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD

Stars: 2-0-1

Kraken: 1-1-1

Kraken X-Factor: Philipp Grubauer

Goalie tandems are great in the regular season, but when playoff time comes you need someone to step into that No. 1 role — and Grubauer did exactly that in Round 1 against his old team. In a series that held its share of surprises, Grubauer’s performance was perhaps the biggest of them all — not to mention, one of the biggest reasons the league’s newest team conquered the latest Cup champ.

Since signing with Seattle ahead of the franchise’s first year, the 31-year-old has put up the worst numbers of his career. After averaging 3.16 goals against per game in 2021-22, he registered a 2.85 GAA this season to go with an .895 save percentage that was only slightly better than the .889 he’d posted a year ago. And yet, against one of the most potent offences this spring he’s been playing his best hockey since his arrival in the Pacific Northwest. Grubauer has faced more shots than any other netminder in Round 1 (231) and responded by registering the fifth-best save percentage (.926) and sixth-best GAA (2.44).

One of the few goalies ranked higher than him right now will be suiting up at the other end of the rink — Jake Oettinger sits third in GAA (2.01) and save percentage (.929) after Round 1, setting the stage for what should be quite the goalie showdown in Round 2.

The Stars haven’t seen much of Grubauer this year, as he started just one of Seattle’s three games against Dallas this regular season. He didn’t fare well, letting in four goals in an overtime loss. Then again, they have yet to meet Playoff Grubauer…

Stars X-Factor: Roope Hintz

Considering just how important he was to the Stars’ first-round outcome, Oettinger is an easy X-factor just as his counterpart in teal will be. But instead, let’s turn our focus up front and highlight the heroics of Roope Hintz. The 26-year-old centreman was a force against Minnesota, registering at least one point in five of six games and posting three games with at least three points — including a hat trick in Game 2, one game after losing linemate Joe Pavelski to injury.

Hintz enters Round 2 as the league leader in playoff points, with 12, and he’s scored in just about every way possible: at even-strength, on the power play, shorthanded. That he’s put up these numbers without Pavelski is all the more impressive, and the fact Pavelski could be re-inserted into the lineup for Round 2 could spell trouble for Seattle. Hintz isn’t the only big producer for the Stars this spring, of course — Jason Robertson (two goals, seven points), Tyler Seguin (four goals, six points), and Miro Heiskenen (six assists) are all producing at elite rates right now while Dallas’ depth, like Seattle’s, has come up big. Ten Stars skaters scored at least one goal in Round 1, with five scoring two or more.

Key Stat: Dallas was undefeated when scoring first in Round 1, but Seattle is used to setting the tone

It became evident early on in Seattle’s first-round series that the Kraken were underdogs on paper only. When it came to game-time, they made it clear Colorado would be playing on their terms even on their home ice. The Kraken scored the first goal in all seven games against the Avalanche, and in all four wins never trailed once. Dallas, too, was quick out of the gates against the Wild. All four of their victories saw them score the first goal, setting the pace for the Wild to try and keep up.

This is a trend that stems from both teams’ regular-season success, too. Seattle had a .762 win percentage when scoring first in the regular season — interestingly, that ranked them sixth just behind Colorado — while Dallas was right in there, too, at .745 (eighth). 

PLAYOFF TEAM STATS

ADVANCED STATS

Regular season 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick

How the Kraken win:

You won’t find any Kraken on the NHL’s playoff points leaderboard — Yanni Gourde’s team-leading six points (one goal, five helpers) has him ranked 38^th league-wide so far this spring — and that’s exactly how Seattle has operated all year long.

It’s fitting that a team whose namesake is a creature known for dwelling in the depths of the sea is, itself, all about rolling four lines deep. There is no team that better demonstrates the scoring-by-committee approach than the Kraken, who saw 15 different goal-scorers in Round 1. In fact, just three players — Morgan Geekie, Jaden Schwartz, and Game 7 hero Oliver Bjorkstrand — scored twice, with the latter two scoring their pair in a single game. Of all Kraken skaters to have played more than one game, only Ryan Donato has yet to get on the scoresheet. With regular-season leading scorer Jared McCann’s status up in the air, depth will be all the more important.

Colorado didn’t have an answer for the kind of consistent pressure that comes with facing a team filled not with superstars but depth scorers, and they didn’t have enough depth themselves to match it going the other way. Dallas is much better equipped in this department, which makes this matchup particularly intriguing.

Hand-in-hand with Seattle’s depth is the club’s disciplined style of play. The Kraken averaged the fewest penalty minutes per game (just 6:17 per contest against Colorado) and those they did take were successfully killed off to the tune of an 88.9 per cent success rate, flattening the Avalanche’s normally strong PP unit to second-worst of all post-season teams. The Kraken need that to continue if they’re to keep Dallas’ potent power play, which scored on 37.5 per cent of opportunities against Minnesota, in check. Getting hot on special teams is so often the difference maker in the playoffs, and Seattle’s power play is not even warm. Of the teams still in the race after Round 1, the Kraken have the worst power-play percentage (14.3) of the bunch.

How the Stars win:

Dallas emerged from Round 1 victorious but a little worse for wear, making the few extra days’ rest following their Game 6 win crucial. One of the biggest questions is about the status of Joe Pavelski, who left Game 1 and is expected to be back during this series, ready to suit up in his net-front office once again.

In net, the Stars get the edge. Oettinger was a true difference-maker against Minnesota, his best performances coming in the biggest games.

Sure, the Stars boast more star power than their foes in the PNW — Oettinger, Robertson, Hintz, and Heiskanen have all already proven they can lead this team to victory — but the recipe for a Dallas win is also all about the details. Take faceoffs, for example — this is an area in which Dallas thrives, their 56.3 win percentage on the dot tops in the league among all playoff teams. Seattle, meanwhile, sits second last at 45 per cent.

As mentioned above, special teams will surely be a major factor considering the depth of this matchup, and Dallas has the advantage there — particularly when it comes to their penalty kill. While their unit isn’t quite up to Seattle’s standards, the Kraken’s power-play has lacked the kind of firepower that could really test it. On the reverse, the Stars’ power play will have a tough task ahead against a disciplined Kraken kill.