There are two sides to every story.
We’ve heard Nikita Kucherov’s side. The trade request, the alleged disrespect and lack of communication, even down to the reported offers from the Tampa Bay Lightning as his agent Dan Milstein begins to make the media rounds.
What we haven’t heard yet is the view of the Tampa Bay Lightning. General Manager Julien BriseBois issued a two-sentence statement after Elliotte Friedman’s bombshell that Kucherov told teammates he was not re-signing in Tampa and requested a trade.
“We unequivocally have no intention of trading Nikita,” BriseBois’s statement said.
BriseBois has held firm on that.
According to multiple league sources, calls flooded in to BriseBois in the hours and days since the shockwave – but the answer has remained consistent.
One team was told: “We’re not trading Kucherov now. We’re not trading Kucherov at the deadline. It’s his right to become a free agent, but he’s ours through June 30.”
There hasn’t been much back and forth because it appears BriseBois isn’t caught up in the rhetoric. The Lightning are playing the long game.
After Leo Carlsson’s cap-changing offer sheet, the belief is BriseBois revised his offer to Kucherov to four years at $15 million per season for a total of $60 million.
That four-year deal would take Kucherov through his age 37 season and make him an unrestricted free agent again just after his 38th birthday.
On the surface, that seems like a reasonable contract term for a 33-year-old. On the surface, everyone can agree that $15 million seems light for a player of Kucherov’s stature when four players are scheduled to make more next season. Cale Makar has crested $20 million per season, the first player to break that threshold, and Makar doesn’t have two Hart Trophies, two Stanley Cups and six 100-point seasons.
But in Tampa Bay, we all know the numbers on the surface aren’t what they seem.
BriseBois and his team have likely calculated the equivalent of Kucherov’s net earnings in no state-tax Tampa Bay and what he would need to earn elsewhere in order to present a compelling and competitive offer.
That number appears to be at exactly $15 million per season.
Take a look at the Kucherov Calculator and you’ll see that teams located in the league’s highest taxed jurisdictions, such as Toronto, Ottawa, Vancouver and Montreal, would need to offer $20.4 million per year to beat what Tampa has on the table at $15 million per season.
The Kucherov Calculator
How much would another team need to pay to match Tampa Bay's reported offer of $15 million in net earnings?
The usual tax caveats apply, of course. Taxes are calculated on daily earnings by jurisdiction where a player performs (games or practices) and travels. There are ways for players on Canadian teams to pay less tax than listed with RCA approved methods. And yes, some general managers and agents believe the tax disparity is overblown.
Nonetheless, you can guarantee that the Lightning have presented what they feel internally is a very competitive offer based on net earnings. It is the same tact that they have taken with other superstars, including Steven Stamkos.
The belief is the reason the Lightning are not paddling furiously under the surface is because they hope not that time will bridge the gulf, but that Kucherov will come around on the math.
Key questions remain: Is Kucherov chasing the gaudy AAV number to satisfy his ego and stamp himself as the highest-paid player in the game? That is his right. No one would fault him for that, not after playing all these years at a relative bargain figure of $9.5 million. Is Kucherov chasing more total dollars? Surely to entice Kucherov, multiple teams would be willing to offer the new maximum six-year term in free agency, which would obviously blow Tampa’s offer out of the water.
The bet from the Bolts is still the same. Is Kucherov willing to upend his family’s life, venture into the unknown and change teams for largely no different paycheque over the first four years of the deal? Will they be able to compete with a premier place to live and play, outside of the limelight, and offer a familiar coach and chance to win?
Kucherov’s stance has been clear and reaffirmed by his agent. The Lightning seem comfortable that their math will prevail, that mind will trump heart. And if it doesn’t, then bank on the Bolts using all of those same tax advantages to chase the next superstar to replace Kucherov in a place that seemingly everyone in the NHL wants to play.
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