The Leafs, the Lightning, and the weight of the two teams' pasts

If Tampa weren’t "Tampa…," I found myself mindlessly musing while picking through the numbers. I never finished the thought, because it was pointless. The more complete thought would have been, “if Tampa Bay wasn’t Tampa Bay, the team that’s been to three straight Cup finals, then the Round 1 matchup I’m evaluating would look particularly lopsided by the numbers.”

Of course, I didn’t finish that thought, because Tampa Bay is (say it again now with emphasis) Tampa Bay, and they do have all that veteran experience, that elite goaltending, arguably the league’s best coach and multiple future Hall-of-Famers.

But yeah. By the numbers, boy, these Bolts haven’t been very good for awhile. And given that the Leafs have, the numbers for Round 1's Tampa Bay versus Toronto matchup show a pretty one-sided battle.

So that’s the question for today: How much does the history of these teams matter, and the mental baggage that comes with it, versus who they’ve shown themselves to be more recently? They have such disparate reputations. The Lightning get the proud italics based on their myriad accomplishments, while the Leafs get the falling voice that comes with “You know, the Leafs.”

To go back to where we started, those numbers. I wanted to evaluate where these two teams are at more recently, but with enough of a sample size. I chose February 1^st, which is about 2.5 months. You get a nice large sample size of games, the bulk of which come after the trade deadline, where the biggest changes are made. (Trimming it from just the deadline really leaves us with a really small sample, which can see a long road trip or a couple injuries too-greatly affect the information.)

So yes, looking back to Feb. 1^st, here are the records of the two teams:

Toronto roughly maintained their season-long pace despite a dip in play after the trade deadline, while the Lightning see a drop from their actual 98-point season to one of just 80 points. They’ve been below .500 hockey for two and a half months, with a goal differential below the break-even mark.

Next, we’ll look at league-wide ranks in basic goals scored and goals given up. It’s not like the Leafs have torn the league up over this time, but it looks like they’ve deserved better offensively than they’ve received, but perhaps more notable, is that the Lightning have been awful for a playoff team.

Twenty-fourth in expected goals against is simply not what we’ve come to expect from the italicized Tampa Bay Lightning.

On the power play, we know that the Lightning are typically dangerous. Over the course of the full season, Toronto has the second-best power play, while Tampa Bay has the third.

Below I’ve tweaked it to “goals per game” on the power play, which I find relevant here for a reason: TB is excellent at getting themselves on the power play, thanks to playing a greasy style that forces games with heavy amounts of special teams play. They’ve earned 115 power play opportunities since Feb. 1^st, which is 31 more than the Leafs have received.

As you can see, the Leafs still grade out well, but the Lightning seem to convert every night. (If you’re interested, over this sample the Leafs penalty differential is -5, while the Bolts are +11.)

But what should make Leafs fans feel a bit better about the above, is their respective PKs:

The Lightning have struggled, while the Leafs PK has really found itself. It’s worth noting, again, that part of the Leafs success here is that they typically don’t take many penalties, and Tampa takes a ton. (If you prefer straight up percentages: since Feb. 1 the Lightning PK is 77.9%. Toronto’s is 86.5%.)

Pretty much everywhere you turn, you run into a conundrum where the only counter to “The Leafs having an advantage, or at least drawing even” is history. Even in net, Ilya Samsonov has played pretty well even with Andrei Vasilevskiy (the last category is “goals saved above expected” from MoneyPuck.com) by the numbers:

And so here we sit, with intangibles. The Lightning have gone through the battles in the past and won. They’ve come out of close games (and series) victorious. They’ve seen, and know, what it takes.

The Leafs can’t make that same claim.

But at the end of the day, hockey is still hockey, and with the goal being to put the puck in the net of your opponent more than they do yours, it’s impossible to ignore months of recent evidence. You cannot convince me that the Lightning have been just “saving it,” or were not trying until now, when it’s really time to try. They lost significant names last off-season in Ondrej Palat, Ryan McDonagh and Jan Ruuta. The last five seasons their point totals (pro-rated to 82 games) have been 113, 128, 108, 110, and now this year, 98.

If they’re “saving it,” they’ve really been saving it. They’re much likelier a little bit worse.

That’s the challenge for these two respective teams. The Leafs have to put history out of their mind, play the games in front of them, and hope for the same good fortune that all teams who win playoff series need. Every good team needs some bounces.

The Lightning have to be like Tiger Woods in his prime, where their aura and past intimidates and weakens their opponent before the competition even begins. We heard Jon Cooper do some of that after the Leafs beat the Lightning this week, saying the game was just a meaningless exhibition game.

Well, the games are about to matter for real, and we’ll see if the Lightning have been playing possum or not.

They’ve got the history, they’ve earned all that italicized writing, but the Leafs have been the flat-out better team for months now. We’ll see if the mental side of their pasts rises up and plays a factor when the puck drops in Game 1.