The 'what-ifs' for the Toronto Maple Leafs after one single game

TORONTO — Ever since the analytics revolution started beating everyone over the head with cries of “small sample size,” nobody wants to be seen as over-reacting early in the season. Zooming out and focusing on numbers can make individual games feel nearly irrelevant, as if no information matters until the pool of data is large enough to safely determine that something was not a blip, but rather a certifiable trend.

But coaches and managers don’t have the luxury of riding out failures while praying that it’s just been bad luck and everything will balance out. They need to make decisions quickly, before a portion of the season gets lost if it turns out something wasn’t so much bad breaks as it was bad process.

Think about it: you have bad results for a couple games with a certain lineup or system. It may be bad luck, or bad process. You can carry on and hope it was luck, or you can change plans. If you carry on it might swing back your way, but it might not. Changing might not work either, but you know that by not changing, you’re already a couple steps down a bad path. Since you don’t have the answers either way, you’re better off changing and trying your luck doing something different while you await more answers.

 So, one of the first things they have to consider is what if something wasn’t a blip? “Hey, what if our PK giving up three goals Night 1 wasn’t just a random case of bad luck, but it’s actually bad?” So, you start keeping a closer eye on certain issues in order to determine contingency plans if the what-ifs break badly.

Here in Toronto, the Maple Leafs have just one game in the books. For fans, it was just about the most eventful hockey game they could ask for, a 6-5 final over the Montreal Canadiens with multiple lead changes, and it left us with a ton of what-if questions.

And so, let’s address those concerns and hopes (these aren’t always negative what-ifs, of course). What if the early path some players and systems started on aren’t just one-off blips, but are rather the start of meaningful trends?

WHAT IF?

What if ... John Klingberg is still a meaningful offensive contributor and can improve the Leafs power play?

I’ll say this phrase only once because it applies to everything: It was only one game, but Klingberg’s debut with the Leafs was excellent. He made quick reads on the power play, earned two assists and kept a puck in at the blue line that allowed the team to score with the goalie pulled (and, eventually, win the game). His 5-on-5 numbers with Jake McCabe weren’t great, but there was a lot to like with the way he head-manned the puck and generally carried himself. What if he has another great season in him?

Well, it would ease the burden on Morgan Rielly, but also leave them with another player who is talented as hell but doesn’t defend well. I think he’d need to be paired with a stout defender and, in general, would increase the Leafs need for defensively skilled defensemen around him and Rielly.

What if ... Max Domi gets off to a slow start?

Coming off a year when he scored nearly 20 goals and 50 points at age 27, there’s no doubt Domi is a good offensive player. But his debut for the Leafs didn’t go as he’d have liked (played 11 mins and was taken off his line in the final minute for defensive reasons in favour of rookie Matthew Knies). The team is so packed with offensive players, it’s tough to see him getting much run on the top power-play unit. With the talented logjam up top, Domi could become a guy who plays 13-14 mins a night and gets maybe 35-40 points in a sheltered role, which I don’t think he or the team saw as the plan for him this season.

I don’t think this is going to develop into a year-long issue — he’ll likely get more comfortable and see himself in better spots — but it was a shaky debut.

What if ... Auston Matthews is MVP-quality again?

If Matthews is That Guy and not Last Year Guy, the Leafs should contend for the division crown. It would free them up to treat him as prime Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid at times, and ask him to single-handedly power a line (maybe with Domi or Jarnkrok), which allows you to get deep behind him. Knies needs to play with a star to utilize his potential, John Tavares thrives with Mitch Marner; an elite-level Matthews opens a world of options for his coach.

What if ... Ilya Samsonov isn’t an NHL-quality starter?

This is no small what-if, and Game 1 of the season wouldn’t have done much to assuage the nerves of the coach or GM. If he isn’t, obviously they’ll turn to Joseph Woll, he of 15 NHL games. And even if Woll is good, are they really comfortable handing off a team with Cup aspirations to a rookie goaltender come playoffs? Simply put, if Samsonov isn’t looking like a decent NHL starter come Christmas, I imagine GM Brad Treliving would start to get more serious about other options.

What if ... Marner and Matthews kill penalties together all year?

While I think they’d excel, I also think it would lead Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe to do what he did in Game 1, and not have them go over the boards as the first PK unit. By going out second, they could in theory get tired first units, or lesser second units, and maybe capitalize going the other way.

I also think this risks using Marner less, who’s been the Leafs' most effective PK forward for years. I’d rather them ask more of Matthews then less of Marner, and just use them a la Brad Marchand/Patrice Bergeron in years past for Boston.

What if ... Fraser Minten doesn’t show better in Games 2 and 3?

It wouldn’t be a huge deal, but if he plays three games like he did in Game 1, the Leafs probably send him down and let him get his junior season started, likely recalling Pontus Holmberg by next week. If not Holmberg, it’s possible they start the “Nylander at centre" experiment for real, and Nick Robertson or Bobby McMann could come up to play wing. I’m guessing you see a current Toronto Marlie in the Leafs lineup sometime next week.

There are other, some grander what-ifs after Game 1, like what if Nylander is that good all year (he will be expensive), and what if the D corps continues to turn pucks over like it did in Game 1 (it will result in a different kind of turnover), but most of those were covered in our pre-season storyline piece.

We have only one game to go on, and so yes, that’s an extremely small sample size. But players took their first steps down paths both good and bad, and their coach and GMs attention to certain things will have already been heightened.