Things We Know: Nurse's increased agency a key to success for Oilers

EDMONTON — Things We (Think We) Know. Series 3, Volume 1.

Things We Know

With Cody Ceci gone to San Jose and Josh Brown in Bakersfield, Darnell Nurse inherits the mantle as the player that Oilers fans love to hate. His $9.25 million AAV puts Nurse in the crosshairs, and an average season last year made for an itchy trigger finger for that sector of fans who can’t be happy unless they have someone to be unhappy about.

Nurse had a sit-down with Paul Coffey this fall.

Things We (Think We) Know

“We had a really good chat… we went out for an hour and we’re on the same page,” Oilers assistant coach Paul Coffey told the Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson.

“He asked me if I wanted him to be a shutdown defenceman?” said Coffey. “I said ‘no.’ I just want him to be a good player. He owns everything and my job as a coach is to make him better and make every defenceman’s experience a good one.”

Nurse knows it. He has to be a better player this year than last.

Just a simple stat like plus-minus: he was plus-3 last season, and a plus-26 the year before that.

In the 2024 playoffs, when Nurse was on the ice the Oilers were outscored 21-10. He seldom played with the McDavid line, of course, and he and Ceci had a string of goals go in that should have been stopped when Stuart Skinner struggled against Vancouver.

But whatever — his play should tilt the ice the way his salary tilts the Oilers cap. Nurse has to be better this season.

And so far, he has been. Nurse has been more physical, and his game more compact. Less mistakes and roaming deep into the offensive zone, more assertive defensive play, more intimidation and physicality. Quieter when the game’s on, louder after the whistle blows.

Big picture: Over the last five seasons, Nurse is tied for 16th among defenceman in even strength points (122), and is fourth in even strength goals (40) — ahead of names like Victor Hedman (38), Devon Toews (36), Adam Fox (33) and Alex Pietrangelo (30). His plus-minus ranks 14th among all D-men at plus-74.

There’s a better player there than the one we saw last season. And that player is well aware of that.

Things We Know

Edmonton is one of the eldest teams in the National Hockey League, and since those St. Louis offer sheets and the Raphael Lavoie waivers saga, they have lost two 23-year-olds and a 24-year-old (Lavoie) off their roster for a return of … wait for it … exactly nothing.

So, how crucial is 23-year-old Vasily Podkolzin to this team’s future? Oh, boy…

Things We (Think We) Know

Podkolzin had a shot on a Top 6 line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Viktor Arvidsson in Thursday’s 4-2 win at Nashville, and he had zero shots and zero points. He was swapped out at practice Friday for Mattias Janmark, demoted to the fourth line with Derek Ryan and Corey Perry.

Podkolzin is leading the Oilers in hits (12) through five games, though that may be the one in-game statistic that is the least trustworthy. However, he’s been very physical as he tries to keep a job in the NHL, and that’s great when he’s been deployed on Line 4.

But when he gets a chance with more offensive players, he’ll have to graduate to playing the game, possessing the puck, and using his size and speed to make something more than a body check happen.

This is a guy who came from Vancouver with the rap of, “He loses confidence easily. Plays it safe. Overthinks it too often.”

The season is still young, but this is the task for Kris Knoblauch and his staff: Crack the code on their only young forward, who’s four years younger than the next in line — soon-to-be 28-year-old Connor McDavid.

Things We Know

Edmonton has lost its last eight regular season visits in Dallas, where they drop the puck at 2 p.m. Mountain on Saturday afternoon in a rematch of last spring’s Western Conference Final.

In that series, most pundits told us the Stars had better goaltending, a better defence, and superior depth that would be the final blow as the Stars made their way to the Stanley Cup Final. None of those things turned out to be true, as Edmonton won in six games.

Things We (Think We) Know

The Oilers biggest fear in the Central Division used to be the Colorado Avalanche. Now, we’d guess the Stars have stepped into that role, having won the Central for two years running.

This is just one regular season game. It will not leave us with any concrete conclusions about these teams, as last year’s series did.

But beating the best teams in their barns during the regular season is a nice dress rehearsal for the playoffs.

Eight straight losses in Dallas? C’mon now….