There are some perks to winning a hockey game going away, and for Tuesday’s Leafs it shook out in the form of ice time.
No forward on the team played over 20 minutes in Game 4, less than a week after Mitch Marner’s 27:23 TOI in Game 1. Auston Matthews didn’t even play 18 minutes. The TOI leader on the back-end wasn’t any of the usual suspects, it was Justin Holl (at 24 minutes). And to make some of those numbers possible, no skater played less than 11 minutes, meaning that in what could’ve been a major strain in the post-season — a three-games-in-four-nights back-to-back — the Leafs won without exacting too much physical toll on the players they’re going to need most in the games ahead.
In a Cup hunt that’s increasingly become about attrition and keeping your troops in hockey equipment on game nights (just ask last year’s Avalanche), that’s no small success.
A lot of things were small successes, actually, and so what we’ll do here is run through the list of those, touch on the roster going forward, then consider what’s ahead for a team on the brink of winning its first playoff round in oh, 17 years or so.
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Nothing happening
If you’re Sheldon Keefe and the rest of the Leafs coaching staff right now, you’re absolutely basking in the comments calling the Montreal-Toronto series boring. You’re rolling around in them like a happy dog in dirt. And let’s be clear here, it is boring, comparatively. Because finally, at long last, the Leafs are able to play a style that doesn’t feel like hopping on a pogo stick in a minefield.
Whether the piling on was warranted or not, in the past there undeniably were “what the heck” moments from D-men (insert comments about Jake Gardiner and Cody Ceci), the likes of whom this particular Leafs corps doesn’t seem to have. The surprisingly consistent TJ Brodie has been a big help in that regard, and Zach Bogosian deserves credit there too. When they holster their offensive weapon they’re less inclined to shoot themselves in the leg, and so attempts against still happen, but absolute crisis moments happen less.
I’ve debated how much of this is a credit to the Leafs and how much is a knock on the Habs, and it’s obviously not one or the other here. The Habs offence is pretty toothless right now. But they were a middle of the NHL pack on offence this season (scoring 2.82 goals per game); they’re not the Anaheim Ducks. So the Leafs deserve some props for keeping them quiet when it’s time to put the lid on things.
Mike Kelly of Sportlogiq and the NHL Network shared a stat from this series that’s noteworthy: off the cycle Toronto has created 37 chances (!) to Montreal’s piddly 11. As I mentioned, the team D has been good and kept the Habs’ offence down, which certainly helps. But this is where I give Campbell credit.
Every time it feels like the Habs are in a spot to sustain something, they get a shot attempt and it … dies. It’s been like Velcro to Campbell in this series, whether he’s catching it, or trapping it against his body. Joel Armia was asked after the game why he thinks the Habs have had so many “one-and-done” offensive possessions, and he missed the answer. It hasn’t been work ethic as he mused, or anything like that. Campbell’s just been freezing everything and getting 10 skaters off the rink to start a new shift entirely.
Tough to pile up cycle chances when the ref has to drop the puck after each one and the D is allowed to reset itself.
The second period
To use hockey parlance here, the Leafs have absolutely pumped the Habs in the second period. They’ve owned nearly two-thirds of the shot attempts and outscored Montreal 8-1 in that frame. Could it be random chance that’s when their dominance has revealed itself? Sure, but it’s more likely this: the longer change loosens team structures a bit, and that plays in favour of the more offensively able teams. Here’s Keefe on second periods:
“…There is a lot more space on the ice because of the line changes. People generally have to leave structure to get off of the ice.
“It changes it a little bit. That is an opening for us to really get going. First and third periods are difficult at this time of year, especially. The structure is generally in place. You have to come through groups of five people quite often. In the second period, it opens up a little bit. We look at that as a big opportunity for us to take hold of the game. That is really what our focus has been on: to have good starts, don’t let the game get away on us, and look to pull away on each shift as we go along. The second period is a big part of that, of course.”
The second period comes after the early game excitement settles down, and before teams adjust to play to the score in the third, so better teams generally do their best work there. That’s been the case in this series.
On to the middle six, who’ve been shining.
Alex Kerfoot and William Nylander
Y’know how sometimes in the post-season some player just doesn’t look like they have “it,” so analysts muse “Maybe they’re injured?” Yeah, these two look the opposite of that. Super healthy? I just can’t believe the pop in their strides.
The past few games have been the best Alex Kerfoot has had as a Maple Leaf, starting with his skating. I’d argue that were it not for Nylander, Kerfoot’s been the best skater in the series, noticeably gaining ground or passing anyone near him. I mention Nylander, obviously, because he’s been the same.
It’s a bit of a surprising undercurrent of this series, actually — speed. Montreal’s D looks overwhelmed going back on pucks, the team structure constantly feels strained to keep up, yet the Habs aren’t a team I’d previously thought of as slow.
Ilya Mikheyev and Pierre Engvall
If the Leafs have a third line that can play shifts in the offensive zone and not score, well … they’d be extremely pumped. The’ve been searching for that unit since training camp. So far in Round 1 they’ve got it.
Mikheyev and Engvall have enough speed, reach, and ability to forecheck. If they can just do that in their minutes, the Leafs will feel good about their chances against anyone. (The pressbox is like a cocoon for Engvall. He always comes out a beautiful butterfly, then slowly reverts back to caterpillar status. A fun Leafs subplot is watching how long until Engvall’s play drops enough for Keefe to stuff him back into the cocoon to get back the butterfly he greatly prefers.)
Last night was everything the Leafs could’ve hoped for when they picked him up during the season, a reclamation project who contributed valiantly to a post-season win by flashing the skill that got him drafted as high as he did.
What’s interesting with Galchenyuk is that his, let’s call it “falling short of high expectations,” isn’t a product of what we usually see from those situations. Usually it’s some crazy-skilled kid who doesn’t want to put in the work, or feels entitled to more than their actual output warrants. All the Leafs have done is praise the guy’s work ethic and passion. Instead his shortcoming may be just a little bit of a lag in his ability to read plays from a defensive standpoint (possibly because he’s never applied himself there before), because read these comments on Galchenyuk from Keefe:
“You just used the two words “drive” and “desire.” I was going to go with passion. Since he has been here, he has worked extremely hard. He has been very respectful of the process, first of all, with having to go down to play in the American league, work with skills development and skating coaches down there, and play in the AHL and do a good job. The reports that came out of the AHL were nothing but positive. That is not always the case for guys that have had a lot of time in the NHL and have succeeded in the NHL.
“He has handled himself extremely well. He just has a great passion for the game. He has fit in really well. He has earned the respect of his teammates through the attitude he has brought, the work ethic, and how he has played on the ice, most importantly. The guys like having him around. He is an important part of our team. A night like tonight is a good example of why.”
Try finding Keefe quotes like that about Engvall. Even Butterfly Engvall doesn’t get that kind of love.
The top guys
Montreal lost 4-0 and didn’t get scored on by Matthews, Marner or Hyman. That has to be a concern.
Matthews was Matthews in a game that didn’t ask much of him. As for the other two, I thought Marner showed how effective he could be on the PP flank by reminding us of something he used to use way more (in the JVR/Bozak days) — he looked for the shot-pass into the high-tip spot. Yes, he shot the puck more too, but it’s the shot-pass that will keep defenders on his side of the rink (because it feels dangerous), and not cheating to Matthews. When that’s a threat, everything else should open up for him and the PP. He had been floundering there, but took a positive step in Game 4.
Lastly, Hyman hasn’t quite found the level he was at pre-injury. The Leafs have to like that things are going their way while allowing him time to find his game, as he’s someone built for playoff-style hockey.
Looking forward
What an insane predicament for the Toronto Maple Leafs to be in, that they have two defencemen very worthy of being in the lineup in playoffs, yet one guy has to sit out. I thought Travis Dermott was everything you expect him to be in Game 4 — he gave great effort, defended well, and stayed out of the headlines. I’m guessing Rasmus Sandin goes back in, still, as the upside seems to be higher.
I’m wondering how much the Leafs will look beyond this series in their Game 5 lineup. You have to have that killer instinct to close out the series, and to step on their throat, and yada yada yada.
But still, Riley Nash is a player who can help them, who they might need down the road if they face more offensively dangerous teams. Unfortunately he’s nowhere near their best 12 right now. Do you put him in to see if more game reps (which are huge) can get him back to what he can be, while getting more familiar with the Leafs system? And is the drop off from whoever they’d take out (likely Adam Brooks) to put Nash in that cataclysmic?
If I had to guess, Brooks will stay in, but it’s one of the few spots worth discussing throughout their lineup right now.
Outside of the fringe players, though, the Leafs are in a comfortable spot. Anything can happen, as this is hockey after all. And dare I add, it is also the Leafs. But barring a run of worse injury luck or a complete meltdown in net, it’s tough to see a road through for Montreal.
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