The Edmonton Oilers’ disastrous start feels like a distant memory. Their 2-1 overtime win against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday was their franchise-record 10th in a row, improving to 20-6-0 under coach Kris Knoblauch.
“I think what feels really good is we’re moving up the standings and … trying to build for a long, successful playoff season,” Knoblauch, who replaced Jay Woodcroft on Nov. 12, told reporters Saturday. “Down the road, maybe when the season’s done, it’ll feel even better that we accomplished something that a lot of good hockey teams didn’t do before.”
Here are three reasons why the Oilers have saved their season:
WINNER WINNER STUART SKINNER (AND CALVIN PICKARD)
First and foremost, the Oilers’ goaltending has greatly improved. Woodcroft was undone by poor play from Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell; Edmonton allowed an NHL-worst 9.56 goals above expected in its first 13 games (0.73 extra goals against per 60 minutes). Since Knoblauch took over 26 games ago, Oilers goaltenders have performed above expectation, saving an extra 4.38 goals, or 0.17 per 60.
Skinner and Calvin Pickard have been aided by stronger defensive play in front of them. The Oilers have surrendered 12.3 slot shots on net per 60 under Knoblauch, down from 15.4 per 60 under Woodcroft. In particular, the Oilers have been much better at defending the rush, allowing nearly two fewer slot shots on net per 60 in those situations.
OH, WHAT A RUSH
In terms of generating high-quality offence, the Oilers were one of the better teams in the league before the coaching change, ranking sixth in expected goals per game (3.48) through Nov. 11. The problem was that their 4.3 true shooting percentage, which accounts for all shot attempts (on net, missed and blocked), was tied for 27th over that span.
A lot of that had to do with a rush attack that produced just four goals on 90 scoring chances (4.4 per cent). Connor McDavid, by far the most prolific rush scorer in the league since data tracking began in 2016-17, had zero on 13 chances.
Over the past 26 games, however, the Oilers have found their form, scoring 29 rush goals on 214 chances (13.6 per cent). That is identical to their conversion rate from last season, when they scored 79 rush goals on 579 chances.
McDavid, who is averaging 1.81 points per game under Knoblauch, is 8-for-43 on rush chances over the past two months (18.6 per cent).
McDavid’s line with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been utterly dominant. Since Nov. 13, the Oilers have outscored opponents 24-9 and out-chanced them 167-60 at 5-on-5 (62-17 off the rush) when those three have been on the ice.
NATURAL-BORN (PENALTY) KILLERS
The Oilers’ penalty kill is an impressive 76-for-87 over the past 26 games. Besides steadier goaltending, Edmonton has benefited from more continuity among its penalty-killing units.
In 13 games under Woodcroft this season, the Oilers did not have a go-to unit on the penalty kill. The new coaching staff, meanwhile, has leaned on the four-man group of Nugent-Hopkins, Derek Ryan, Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci, which has received 28:32 of shorthanded ice time and been scored on twice.
“It’s chemistry, especially when you’re running routes all the time,” Oilers forward Connor Brown, who averages 1:48 of shorthanded ice time per game under Knoblauch, told The Athletic last month. “It’s good to know guys’ tendencies. It’s good to know the little things, very nuanced details and where each other’s going to be and to be able to communicate with one another.”
All stats via Sportlogiq
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