Upon Further Review: How Justin Holl is contributing to Maple Leafs' success

January of 2023 begins with the Toronto Maple Leafs third overall in winning percentage, a far cry from where they sat just two months prior, at the start of November. At that point they were 4-4-2 (a spot out of the Atlantic’s basement), the coach was fielding questions about his job, and there were concerns about what would happen in the weeks ahead if things didn’t get untangled by those on the inside.

Obviously, things did improve. They started to put the puck in the net, they got great goaltending, and the team seemed to buy in fully to how Sheldon Keefe wanted them to play.

But of all the things that turned around, the one that’s garnered the least attention might be the play of Justin Holl, the receiver of some home-ice boos that first week of November.

Toronto’s fanbase is voluminous, it is passionate, and it is knowledgeable as hell. But you do not get to claim to be the latter if you can’t find some appreciation for what the Leafs steady defender has given his team since then, a group whose back-end has missed Jake Muzzin, Morgan Rielly and TJ Brodie for significant swaths of time.

After 38 games, Holl has spent more time on the ice than any other player for this third-best NHL team:

Go ahead and search out the salary of the player who eats the most minutes on the teams at the top of the NHL standings, and you’ll note that most make a few bucks more than Holl’s $2 million salary.

The back-end surviving those injuries and thriving (the team is fourth in the NHL in goals against) has been a surprise, and so the bulk of the credit has gone to the improved play of Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren, which yes, has been a clear positive. They’ve stepped up.

But there’s a reason those players are put in a position to thrive, and it’s been that Holl found his form after a rough opening stretch of play, and has handled the toughest assignments, lessening the load for the others.

In the first 18 games of the season – when the boos came – Holl had an expected goals percentage of sub-50 per cent in 12 of them, meaning that the play was in fact going the wrong way more often than not when he was out there.

He’s played 20 games since, and has only been sub-50 per cent four times (and in three of those, just barely). If you take it back to the start of December, there’s only been a single game where Holl has been on the ice for more goals against than goals for.

Those are impressive little factoids, but moreso when you consider the type of minutes he’s asked to play.

No player on the Leafs has started more of their shifts in the D-zone. Holl leads the team in both D-zone start categories (off faceoffs and during the run of play) according to Natural Stat Trick. The only D-man who’s seen tougher quality of competition is TJ Brodie, who deserves some love for his great play since his return from injury as well.

Holl also leads the Leafs in penalty killing minutes by over 30, garnering a massive percentage of the team's short-handed time-on-ice. To go with that, only Morgan Rielly has been on for fewer goals against per minute, albeit in a much smaller sample than Holl’s, and likely not against as many top units (which would be Holl’s responsibility).

So far in 2022-23, 210 D-men have played at least 15 games. Of that group of 210, Holl is 31^st in D-zone denial percentage (meaning he shuts down rushes against at a top-tier rate), and better still, he’s 11^th in the NHL in denials that are immediately followed by a zone exit (courtesy SportLogiq). That’s not a sexy skill, unless you like winning.

Holl is seventh in the league among D in “exit success on under-pressure dump-in recoveries,” in a clump of names between Jaccob Slavin and Drew Doughty. It may sound like an overly specific stat, but it's something his coaches and GM have known is a strength of his for years, and one of the reasons his underlying numbers have typically looked good. He excels at pushing the play the right way.

I’ve written about Holl and the “little things” so much I feel like his agent or something, but no player does more things well quietly while being under-appreciated by fans. A few examples from the past few games. First, here’s an example of an under-pressure D-zone recovery leading to a zone exit:

Off they go.

Given time, he makes good reads.

But more importantly is that when he's given no time, he’s willing to take contact and just eat the puck against the boards. That’s the ultimate unsexy play, but so many guys just rim the puck around to the opposition (and hope not to get hit), and instead end up playing in D-zone coverage for a full shift. Holl moves the puck when he sees somewhere that’s open, otherwise he’ll do this:

Whaddya know, the Leafs are going the right way again. It’s often unspectacular, but being under duress does not phase him.

That’s all the Leafs want him to be for $2 million and on the second or third pair (depending on what they may add this year). Just gap up tight, don’t allow the opposition to come screaming down the rink at our goalies, and step up when there’s a play to be made. Get the puck in our forwards' hands going the other way.

To appreciate Holl, a fun thought exercise is to imagine what the Leafs would’ve looked like for the past two months without him. Now you need more minutes from the other mainstay D-men, you need them to start in the D-zone more often and against tougher lines. They’ll need to pick up the massive load he carries on the PK, which is a real game state a coaching staff must consider carefully. (I bring that up in the wake of some suggestions that Conor Timmins should play ahead of him.)

Holl is not an elite NHL D-man. He’s no all-star. But his level of reliability should not be taken for granted, given how the team suffered when he had a poor run of play at the start of the season. Had he not found his stride, while the Leafs would have improved, I’m skeptical they’d be where they are nearly halfway through the year.

I know Holl’s not to everyone’s taste, as his good plays aren’t that obvious, and anyone who plays that much against good players is going to get cooked at times. But on this Leafs team, his play matters a great deal towards their success.