What a sharp increase in NHL's salary cap could mean for star contracts

Two months ago, when the Edmonton Oilers inked Leon Draisaitl to an extension carrying the largest cap hit in NHL history, there was an understanding that his time atop the mountain would be brief.

Waiting in the wings is teammate Connor McDavid, whose own deal expires at the conclusion of next season, after which the face of the league will reset the market with his own landmark extension. The question of what exactly that new record-setting deal might look like shifted some over the past week, though, amid reporting from Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman regarding the future of the league’s salary cap.

At the moment, the league’s cap is projected to rise to $92.5 million next season, from where it currently sits at $88 million, but there's some idea the PA and league may work towards a slightly higher jump, given what could happen after that campaign. Where the cap could go two years from now, in 2026-27, has raised eyebrows, as Friedman discussed on last week’s episode of the 32 Thoughts podcast.

“Everyone's assuming in the next CBA we're going back to 50-50 (split in revenues between owners and players),” Friedman said on the episode. “If that's the case, and again it depends on who you talk to, there are some estimates ... that think in two years, a 50-50 cap will be close to $110 million.”

It just so happens that that particular season — the one where this exceedingly optimistic scenario could take shape — is the same season that would mark the beginning of McDavid’s next deal.

Whether that lofty number becomes a reality remains to be seen — as Friedman pointed out in his latest 32 Thoughts column, there’s still much to be discussed. But the conversation is coming. And if it does all end up falling that way, with the cap spiking after next season, what exactly might the ripple effects look like for the wave of marquee talent set to begin new deals in 2026-27? Here’s a closer look at a few key names that would be part of that conversation.

Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

Current Deal: 8 years, $100 million ($12.5 million AAV)

The last time the NHL’s leading man reset the market, with an eight-year, $100-million deal inked back in 2017, he signed on for a $12.5-million cap hit that accounted for 15.72 per cent of the Oilers’ available cap room (the league’s salary cap sat at $79.5 million in 2018-19, the first season of that deal).

For frame of reference on how exactly a $110-million cap would shake things up, if the Oilers captain opted for consistency and looked to sign a new deal occupying the same percentage of his club’s cap space, in a $110-million cap world his new contract would clock in at $17.3 million per season. Over eight years, that would amount to a $138.3-million deal. 

Not only would that eclipse Draisaitl’s landmark $14-million AAV signed in September, the total sum would top Alex Ovechkin’s $124-million pact signed back in 2008 — still the largest total netted on one deal in league history.

Of course, that might not even be the true top end of how McDavid’s next contract could shake out.

When he began the eight-year pact he’s currently playing through, No. 97 had amassed a Hart Trophy, a couple scoring titles, a couple MVP nods from his fellow players. In the years since, he’s reached an even higher level, piling on more scoring titles, more MVP nods, a Rocket Richard Trophy for a 60-goal campaign. He’s pushed the boundaries of offensive dominance in today’s game, and led his club to within one win of a championship.

The maximum percentage of the cap a player’s hit can reach, per the collective bargaining agreement, is 20 per cent. With a $110-million cap, that percentage would mean an AAV of $22 million. Over eight years, that would amount to $176 million total.

Now, the chances of McDavid signing a deal anywhere close to that absolute max hypothetical seem slim to none, as even if the cap were to balloon to $110 million, it seems a longshot that the Oilers captain would max out on cap percentage. Still, given his stature in the game, and the years of dominance he has left in front of him, nudging that percentage up higher than 15.72, perhaps to 16 or 17 per cent (the latter of which would net him more than $18 million per year with a $110-million cap), doesn’t seem quite as far from the realm of possibility.

Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild

Current Deal: 5 years, $45 million ($9 million AAV)

The Wild find themselves in an especially interesting position heading into this potential cap jump. Kaprizov sits at the centre of that situation, as the 27-year-old has quickly become one of the game’s marquee talents himself. It’s one thing to look at how a sharp cap jump might affect McDavid, who will surely max out regardless, but what of those like Kaprizov, whose situations aren’t quite so clean-cut? 

When he inked the five-year pact that he’s now approaching the end of, Kaprizov signed on for 11.04 per cent of his club’s cap, the ceiling sitting at $81.5 million in the first year of his deal. If he were to stick with that percentage in a $110-million cap world, Kaprizov’s new contract would come in at just over $12 million per year. Not a gaudy sum necessarily, but one that would, for example, put him just a shade behind what Nathan MacKinnon is earning on the long-term deal he just began (which briefly made him the highest-paid player in the game).

But Kaprizov’s stock has risen plenty over the course of his five-year deal and he has more leverage this time with unrestricted free agency on the horizon. He’s become a 100-point threat, a lock for 40 goals who’s twice flirted with the 50-goal plateau. More likely would be a new deal accounting for roughly 13 per cent of his club’s cap — as was the case with Elias Pettersson and William Nylander’s recently-signed extensions. 

With a $110-million cap, that percentage would push Kaprizov’s potential AAV up to $14.3 million per year, already topping Draisaitl’s current league-leading mark. Over eight years, that would clock in at more than $114 million, a sum topped only by Ovechkin’s ’08 contract to this point. There's a chance he could push that even further, too, and eye something close to fellow Russian Artemi Panarin, who we'll get to shortly...

Jack Eichel, Vegas Golden Knights

Current Deal: 8 years, $80 million ($10 million AAV)

Eichel was still a member of the Buffalo Sabres when he inked his eight-year, $80 million deal. With the cap sitting at $79.5 million in the first season of that deal, 2018-19, his $10-million AAV accounted for 12.58 per cent of the Sabres’ cap space.

Of course, much has changed for the 2015 second-overall pick since then, with Eichel moving on to Vegas, getting his health back, and helping the Golden Knights lift a Stanley Cup. Though not as prolific a scorer as some of the others in this group, at 28 years old he remains a core piece for a Golden Knights team hoping to hang more banners. If that netted him a new deal at the same 12.58 per cent mark, a $110-million cap would push his next AAV up to $13.8 million.

Again, measured against the deals inked in the current cap situation, we can see how much a $110-million cap would potentially shake up the league, as a $13.8-million cap hit would place Eichel above Auston Matthews ($13.25 million AAV) and MacKinnon ($12.6 million AAV), both of whom are still in the early years of their own new deals. Of course, Matthews would stand to benefit from a sharp cap increase himself, with his current deal ending after the 2027-28 season.

Artemi Panarin, New York Rangers

Current Deal: 7 years, $81.5 million ($11.6 million AAV)

At age 33, the veteran Panarin is fresh off a wild 49-goal, 120-point campaign that saw him finish fifth in Hart voting. The complexion of his next contract will be impacted by his age, surely, but the numbers he’s putting up at this point in his career suggest he’s still in line for a hefty payday.

Back when he first joined the Rangers, Panarin signed on for 14.29 per cent of New York’s cap, with the ceiling sitting at $79.5 million in the first year of that deal. It would be tough to argue that he hasn’t made good on the faith the Rangers brass had in him, Panarin having topped 90 points in every season he’s been with the club (aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 campaign, in which he produced at better than a 100-point pace).

If he stuck with that 14.29 per cent on his next deal, with the cap rising to $110 million, that would put Panarin’s next AAV at a shade under $16 million per year. Even a reduction to 14 per cent of his club’s cap would still amount to a $15.4-million AAV, higher than anything the league’s seen to this point.

Interestingly, this extension would also come after one that's due this season to Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin, who himself could push the limits of what goalies make in the NHL, knowing such a big cap increase is on the way.

Kyle Connor, Winnipeg Jets

Current Deal: 7 years, $50 million ($7.14 million AAV)

The Jets’ resident sniper might in fact be the most interesting of the bunch. 

Back when Connor signed his seven-year deal, his $7.14-million AAV accounted for only 8.76 per cent of Winnipeg’s cap. In a $110-million cap world, that same percentage would net him a $9.6-million AAV, and roughly $77 million if he signed on for eight more years.

But Connor’s stock has risen notably over the course of his current deal, too. Since the first season of that contract, 2019-20, the 27-year-old’s been a top-10 goal-scorer league-wide, potting the seventh-most overall in that span, and the fifth-most at even strength. Even if the argument was made that he hasn’t produced quite at the level of those who earned deals in the 13-per cent range, like Pettersson and Nylander, a jump to just 10 per cent of the cap would still take Connor’s hit to $11 million per year with a $110-million cap — quite a bit higher than the $8.5 million per year teammates Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck just signed on for.

The Scheifele deal accounts for just 9.7 per cent of the Jets’ cap, beginning this year with the league’s ceiling at $88 million. Even if Connor’s new deal were to sit level with that percentage, a cap spike to $110 million would put his AAV at $10.67 million — in today’s environment, that would slot him in as the 10th-highest-paid forward in the league, and still the Jets’ highest-paid player by a fair margin.

As Friedman reported last Thursday, much would need to happen before that $110-million hypothetical becomes a reality, however. And there’s reason to believe the league may choose to specifically avoid a sharp one-year uptick, as he mentioned, with the NBA having gone through its own similar situation eight years ago, and winding up with a less-than-desirable result. The 2016 hoops cap spike saw the league’s limit rise by a record $24 million in one off-season, a move that enabled the Golden State Warriors to add Kevin Durant and assemble one of the most dominant lineups in the history of the sport.

In the end, the league opted for a “smoothing” plan in regards to future cap increases, as it felt the one-year spike “disproportionately rewarded” certain organizations and free agents. The NHL now wades into the same conversation in their own house, with the game’s brightest star and the league’s next landmark deal set to be directly impacted.