What does Alex Ovechkin have to do to pass Wayne Gretzky in all-time goals?

Score 93 more times.

That's it, that's all.

For a few years we've been tracking the possibility that Alex Ovechkin could catch and pass Wayne Gretzky as the NHL's career goal-scoring record holder. In 2017-18, when Ovechkin scored the 600th of his career, we noted he would need to average 36.875 goals per season through his age-40 year to eclipse Gretzky's 894 by one.

Since then, Ovechkin has had seasons with 51, 48, 24 (in 45 games), and 50 goals. This season, the now-37-year-old has scored 22 times in 36 games. Amazingly, even this late in his career, Ovechkin is far outperforming the previously required pace and, actually, is still converting at a level consistent with the rest of his career. He might be able to pass Gretzky before his age-40 season even begins.

That was always the key to this chase: Ovechkin was going to have to make up the ground on Gretzky late in his career. Gretzky, who turned 33 midway through the 1993-94 season, scored just 91 goals in his final six NHL seasons. Ovechkin, so far, has scored 144 goals after turning 34 years old and could have a crack at scoring 50 again this season.

At this point, it seems almost guaranteed that Ovechkin will topple one of Gretzky's great records, health permitting. But what, exactly, is the path to 895 from here?

The Capitals have 46 games remaining this season and if we "conservatively" put him down for another 18 tallies, he'd finish 2022-23 with 820 career goals. From there, if we impose the same 36-goal average pace we thought he needed a couple years ago to this last leg of the journey, Ovechkin would be just three goals shy of the record heading into the 2025-26 season.

That 2025-26 season also happens to be the final year of his current contract with the Washington Capitals. He'd be 40 years old heading into it.

But, really, it might be more reasonable to expect Ovechkin will outperform that average now. Father Time is undefeated, so Ovechkin will presumably slow down at some point, but he hasn't scored fewer than 48 goals over a full season since 2016-17. He's pacing for 51 goals this season.

Whatever Ovechkin finishes with in April, when the 2023-24 season begins he will be a 38-year-old player with three years left on his contract. Even with a sharp decline in production, he has a clearly attainable path to Gretzky.

Here's a look at how many goals Ovechkin would have to average per season over his contract's final three years if...

Per Sportsnet Stats, the most goals ever scored by an NHL player after turning 38 years old is Gordie Howe, who put up another 177 in athletic old age.

Five players have scored more than 100 times after turning age 38. Amazingly, because he's still scored at such a pace over the past couple of years, Ovechkin doesn't even need to be among the most prolific age 38-plus goal scorers in NHL history to chase down Gretzky.

Of course, he very well still could wind up on this list anyway.

It's likely Ovechkin will pass Gretzky eventually, and then become the only player to ever score 900 times in his NHL career. It's an astounding thing to even think about, considering how many more goals were being scored in the NHL when Gretzky was in his prime.

There were 12 seasons in Gretzky's career where NHL teams combined to average more than seven goals per game. Heck, one year teams combined for more than eight per game. And while Ovechkin's career has played out in an era when goal scoring has risen out of the depths of the Dead Puck, offence still pales compared to the high-flying '80s. Most years in Ovechkin's career, the goal-per-game average has been under six.

NHL teams combined to average 6.28 goals per game last season -- the highest rate of Ovechkin's career. Considering this context, if we look at Hockey Reference's era-adjusted goals record, Ovechkin is already making space at the top:

When we first broached the topic of Ovechkin tracking down this seemingly unattainable record a few years ago, the idea was almost unbelievable for the reasons mentioned above. How could anyone break this Gretzky record, given goals overall are down from that era, goalie equipment has expanded and team defence has become much more structured?

It was a wild scenario, but now here we are within shouting distance of it.

So why not throw one more wild scenario into the universe?

What if Ovechkin does hit his pace this season and winds up with 51 goals? He'd need a 64-goal season to pass Gretzky next season...and who's saying he can't do that, especially if offence does continue to rise?

That would leave him with two remaining contract seasons and a lot of time to create distance between himself and Gretzky. Would back-to-back 50-goal seasons at age 39 and 40 be out of the question?

If that were to happen -- and, yes, it is a long shot -- Ovechkin could actually be within reach of 1,000 goals when his current contract runs out.

Just a little something to ponder as the Great 8 still runs strong and enters the home stretch of the all-time goal chase.