What should RFA Cole Perfetti's next contract look like?

WINNIPEG -- It feels like Cole Perfetti should be signed by now. 

When you’ve got a restricted free agent donning your jersey at the NHL Player Media Tour and representing your team at a charity fishing event, it’s safe to assume he’ll be at training camp, right? And mind you, this isn’t like many of the dragged-out RFA negotiations Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has dealt with — the player wants to be in Winnipeg.

"I love being in Canada. I love Winnipeg. I love the organization. I love playing there,” Perfetti told Sportsnet’s Luke Fox in Las Vegas.

Yet, two days into training camp, Perfetti remains unsigned.

While this may be, as one NHL executive told Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the “nicest contract dispute ever,” it certainly isn’t the easiest negotiation ever.

"Personally, I'd give these guys the moon. I'd love to have the ability to pay them everything that they want and deserve,” Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff told reporters on Thursday. “In a salary cap world, you have to make business decisions."

And ultimately, Winnipeg has more leverage here. 

In the short term, the Jets can proceed without Perfetti more than the latter can afford to hold out of training camp and possibly get off to a slow start to the season. As we’ve seen before with countless examples — be it when William Nylander signed on Dec 1. 2019, or when Trevor Zegras signed late in training camp last fall — players who miss extended parts of the season or training camp are prone to poor years.

Frankly, Perfetti can’t afford a down year. 

The 2020 10th overall pick is coming off a roller coaster 2023-24 campaign. After recording 29 points and averaging 14:25 of ice time in the first 40 games of the year, Perfetti posted just nine points, averaged 12:30 a night and endured a 15-game point drought through late January and all of February. Sure, he set career-highs in goals (19) and points (38) but given the way the first half of the season went, those point totals should’ve been higher. 

So, what’s the holdup in contract talks?

For one, Perfetti probably wants to feel appreciated. Not only did Rick Bowness quickly abandon the mission of having him as a centre just a few games into the year, but the Jets also didn’t give him much runway to get back into the lineup once he found his rhythm in the spring. It ought to sting when you’re a healthy scratch in four of your team's five playoff games despite recording six points in your last six regular season contests. 

Perfetti’s camp is probably pulling a lot of ‘coulda, woulda, shoulda’ with these negotiations. Preaching that, if Perfetti had more of an opportunity, he would’ve produced at a higher clip. But for all the upside he has, Perfetti hasn’t demonstrated enough to warrant the type of payday he’s reportedly eyeing (more on that, in a bit).

And that’s the crux of why the Jets are playing hardball. To understand things better, you’ve got to know the market. Let’s take a look at some two-year bridge comparables.

Below is a list of six players with similar production to Perfetti before inking a two-year bridge deal. Note: We’re only looking at players who, like Perfetti, don’t have arbitration rights.

On the recent episode of 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, Friedman pointed out that Shane Pinto and Cole Perfetti’s production has been quite similar, although he doesn’t believe Winnipeg wants to hand out a $3.75 million AAV to Perfetti. And they shouldn’t. If Perfetti’s camp is indeed using Pinto’s contract as a comparable, the Jets are wise to push back. Sure, the two have recorded nearly identical point-per-game outputs throughout their careers, but Pinto proved himself as a top-six centre who can make an impact at both ends of the ice last season. Perfetti, on the other hand, was a middle-six winger.

As you can see, over the past couple of years, players of Perfetti’s ilk have earned closer to $3 million — not $4 million — on a two-year bridge deal. Plus, now that the New Jersey Devils have re-signed Dawson Mercer to a $4 million AAV for three years, Perfetti’s leverage will shrink even more. He won’t have a leg to stand on if he asks for more or equal money to a player with two 20-plus goal campaigns and a 56-point season under his belt. And odds are, given that he’s mainly been deployed as a winger, Mercer will be making less than Pinto.

Perfetti’s camp can preach upside and potential all they want but in contract negotiations — where comparables are king — it all comes down to the numbers. 

Now, speaking of numbers, what about the benefits of locking up Perfetti long-term? With the cap set to rise, one could think that inking Perfetti to a lengthy pact that’d cover his prime years would be a wise move. But really, it’s better in theory than it is in actuality. Perfetti hasn’t proven enough to warrant a long-term extension.

There’s a sizeable gap between Perfetti and the players above. Tim Stutzle, the 2020 third overall pick, signed an eight-year pact after scoring 58 points as a teenager. Lucas Raymond and Seth Jarvis secured the bag after posting 70-plus and 60-plus points respectively. Quinton Byfield recorded 55 points last year and was a fixture in Los Angeles’ top-six. And Anton Lundell, whose regular season production is in-line with Perfetti, recorded 17 points in 24 playoff games this past spring. All of those aforementioned accomplishments are merit to banking on a player being worth big-time money at such a young age. 

We still don’t know what Perfetti is, yet. The 5-foot-11 forward is extremely cerebral and an excellent distributor, however, he’s got just one fully healthy NHL season under his belt. We saw flashes of his brilliance last season but ultimately, right or wrong, he wasn’t good enough to be trusted when it mattered most. 

That’s not to say Perfetti can’t be a fixture for the Jets in the long and short term. But taking a gamble on him, at this stage of his career, just isn’t worth it for the Jets. 

And so we wait. But the longer this drags on, it’s Perfetti who has the most to lose.