What the Stolarz injury tells us about Toronto's goaltending situation

Though it was never outright declared, something became clear when we learned that Anthony Stolarz would be starting Thursday night against the Anaheim Ducks: he had become the Leafs' 1A goalie, the guy they would turn to first if the playoffs were about to begin. I don’t think a fan out there would complain about that decision either. He's been spectacular.

The shift was so gradual most didn’t notice it happening.

Heading into the season, that wasn’t the case in just about anyone's mind. Joseph Woll had been good for the Leafs last season, and then was great for them in the playoffs before an injury kept him out of Game 7 against the Boston Bruins. Woll will begin his three-year, $11 million contract next season, which will make him the higher paid of the two goalies, while also being the younger of the two, and the one the organization was most heavily invested in from the draft. Woll was the perceived 1A when the season began.

What’s crazy about the gradual switch to it becoming Stolarz’s crease first is that Woll has been nothing short of superb this season. After a slow-ish start in his return from injury (which isn’t uncommon), he’s worked back to a .921 save percentage, which is fourth-best in the NHL. In goals saved above expected (according to MoneyPuck), Woll is seventh-best in the NHL, one slot behind Stolarz. Despite coming into the season as the Maple Leafs keeper who had the edge as 'The Guy' and putting up top 10 goalie numbers, Woll has become the perceived 1B.

None of the above is to say the shift has been unjustified either, as Stolarz was putting together a case for Vezina contention through 16 starts. Sitting sixth in goals saved above expected is good, but sitting first in the entire NHL in save percentage is more than the Leafs ever could’ve hoped for.

As we know, Stolarz assembled his pièce de résistance on Tuesday, stopping 38 shots against the New Jersey Devils and stealing a 2-1 win for Toronto. He was red hot, so you could understand why the Leafs would want to get him back in the net on Thursday. 

On Real Kyper and Bourne Thursday afternoon, I made the case why it wouldn’t make sense to go back to Stolarz: The Leafs are in the midst a run of 12 games in 22 days, both goalies have little experience handling a true NHL starter’s workload, and both were playing well, so they should just alternate the crease without interruption. There was tons of games ahead to split, and so both guys could just keep rolling along. No need to overthink it.

Even with that initial position, I’m not blaming the Leafs for Stolarz getting hurt. Woll is injury prone too, and could’ve gotten hurt had he played. Or, Woll could’ve played poorly, and people would’ve questioned the decision to turn away from the “hot hand.” I didn’t even suggest Stolarz may get hurt when I made my point, I was just saying that it would make no sense to break the rotation given the schedule situation and the quality of play the team was getting from both netminders.

Kyper made a good counterpoint, though, about why they may have gone back to Stolarz and it extended beyond the simple “he played well on Tuesday” theory. Kyper suggested that the Leafs may have been feeling out something that will become relevant in the playoffs: let’s see if he can go back-to-back when he's white hot, stay hot, and do it again. Stolarz's ability to handle a workload was one of the few things that hadn’t been tested, and so this may have been the type of thing Toronto wanted answers to.

Not that they wanted him to leave the game hurt.

It is possible this is nothing, a blip, and Stolarz is fine. But it could also develop into some legitimately bad news, and a problem the Leafs need to address.

If that’s the case, even the bad news would come with a silver lining.  

Maybe after seeing Stolarz get hurt during a run of true-starter workload, they learn it’s not something he can handle. We don’t know exactly what his injury is, but he did shake out that right knee after the Frank Vatrano goal. That’s precisely where he’s suffered some physical difficulty in the past, so much so that some have suggested his career was threatened in the past.

If in fact Stolarz's knee is bothering him – which is probably the worst case scenario – at least it gives the Leafs some runway to look for solutions. 

I don’t mean other goalies, necessarily, but they do need to find out if Woll can handle a heavier workload. And just as important, the Leafs may need to go from “we have good organizational depth in net” to putting that depth into enough NHL games that they’re prepared if called upon in the playoffs.

The Leafs like Dennis Hildeby a lot, and he’s been called up. They may like Artur Akhtyamov even more, but it’s his first year in North America, and despite his great stats in the AHL, it may be better for him to play a lot of games and develop further in the minors.

At any point, this could go from “we like what’s behind our main tandem,” to “we’re going to need one of these third string guys to play 20 games this season.” 

In all, the Leafs are in a good place in the net. Stolarz is listed as day-to-day right now, so it may not be a big deal. They have organizational depth. And above those things, they still have Woll, who has proven that when he plays, he can play as well as anyone in the league. It’s not panic button time.

But the reason the Leafs went into the season with a goaltending tandem that ranked inside the bottom five teams in payroll was simple: they were inexperienced. Neither guy had played 30 games in a season, so they didn't demand huge dollars. It’s when you prove you can handle the workload and excel that you earn the big bucks. 

Sometimes when you get great savings up front, it may come with a cost down the road.

Will the Leafs be fine in the crease? That’s a firm “probably.” But as they head into a busy time on the schedule before the 4 Nations Face-Off break in February, they’re going to learn a lot about what they’ve really got there.

The Leafs are built differently than they have been in the past, and can win. But for that to happen, they’re going to need positive answers to what, as of now, are still uncertain goaltending questions. Oddly, those questions aren't primarly about quality of play, but what quantity of games they can get.