What to expect from Easton Cowan: Can he crack Maple Leafs' roster?

For several years the Toronto Maple Leafs have been in win-now mode and attempting to assemble a lineup capable of going on a deep playoff run. Their regular season record over the past eight seasons is an impressive 356-188-74. The organization has a firm belief in its core players and has attempted to surround them with players who can assist with getting the team over the playoff hump.

But, as everyone in Leafs Nation is aware, the Buds have not met expectations at the hardest time of the year and have only been victorious in one playoff round over the past eight years.

The organization has sacrificed a ton of draft capital in that time to get players via trade and build what they believed would provide the group their best chance of contending for a Stanley Cup. At the 2021, 2022 and 2023 drafts the Leafs selected a grand total of 11 prospects.

That meant the scouting staff had been able to make only one first-round selection in those drafts — the 28^th-overall pick in 2023. They used it to take London Knights forward Easton Cowan, which was a surprise pick at the time. Fast forward to today, though, and it looks like Cowan is going to make it hard on the Leafs brass to send him back to major junior in 2024-25.

COWAN'S COMPLETE GAME SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE NHL

What I like most about Cowan’s overall approach is that he isn’t a one trick pony. His offensive statistics stand out, but what I describe as his “B” game is what gives Cowan a chance at earning an NHL roster spot in the coming weeks.

The NHL game is very different from major junior or college. The players are obviously bigger, stronger, faster and more detailed with their approach in all three zones. A prospect has to be able to skate at NHL pace, think the game quickly and efficiently, and most importantly approach each shift with relentless compete.

Cowan produced 34 goals and 62 assists in 54 regular-season games last season and followed it up with 10 goals and 24 assists in 18 playoff games. But it's his overall approach — the "B" game I mentioned — that impresses me most. His speed, hockey IQ and compete level is what provides him the opportunity to produce offence. Cowan doesn’t cut corners defensively. He’s the kind of forward who can match up versus top-six opponents, be deployed on the penalty kill, block shots, and force turnovers with his tenacity and physicality.

Here's a couple of samples from last year in London:

The first clip is from a game versus the Flint Firebirds. Cowan attacks with pace, chips the puck deep and bodies his man as F1 on the forecheck. His teammates were late on the scene to support, which left Cowan to read that his responsibility was to retreat high in the zone and keep the play in front of him in case he had to assist defensively.

The second clip is an example that shows Cowan being deployed on the penalty kill late in the first period in a playoff game versus the Kitchener Rangers. He starts the sequence by protecting his crease before moving out to block a shot in the last minute of the frame.

I witnessed these kinds of sacrifices throughout the year from Cowan.

ANALYZING HIS OFFENSIVE GAME AND HOW IT FITS IN WITH THE LEAFS

Cowan’s offensive statistics are what most people will notice right away. He’s a play driver off the rush, isn’t shy about taking pucks to the net when he gets the lane, and is very difficult to defend in small areas with his agility and puck skill.

Here’s a look at how efficient he was directing pucks on net, especially from high danger areas in the middle of the offensive zone. The percentages reflect his accuracy at getting pucks to the net and forcing his opponent to make a save.

Cowan attempted 497 total shots last season, with 320 of them ending up on target (64.3 per cent). He’s accurate at getting pucks to the net to create offence and he scored on 13.75 per cent of his shots on goal, regular season and playoffs combined.

It’s interesting to note the majority of Cowan’s goals came from the middle or weak side of the offensive zone. The only reason I point this out is due to the fact the Leafs have potential openings on left wing, but Cowan was clearly more comfortable directing pucks on net from the right side of the offensive zone.

ANALYZING USAGE

Cowan suited up for the OHL Knights and Team Canada at the world juniors last season. He was trusted in a variety of roles up and down the lineup. Here’s the breakdown of how he was deployed:

Average time on ice: 21:11
Power-Play Time Per Game: 3:38
Penalty-Kill Time Per Game: 2:40
Shots per game: 6
Shots on goal %: 65
Face-off percentage: 45
Average puck battles per game: 14
Defensive zone starts: 34%
Neutral zone starts: 32%
Offensive zone starts: 34%

The fact his coaches have identified Cowan as a player who can be counted on in a wide range of roles should give the Leafs options when forecasting the role he plays early in his NHL career.

Cowan isn’t the kind of prospect who has to slot into the Toronto's top six forward lines immediately, although he will in time.

ABILITY TO TAKE FACEOFFS

Cowan is a winger, but he has been called upon to take key draws at the junior level and the chart below displays his level of success. Cowan is a left shot, so note how much more proficient he is taking draws on his strong side (back hand).

WHAT ARE HIS CHANCES TO MAKE THE LEAFS OUT OF CAMP?

Cowan will be competing against Nick Roberston, Calle Järnkrok, Ryan Reaves and Max Pacioretty for a roster spot. The Leafs are in search of a left winger, but Cowan can play both sides, and therein lies the competition for a roster spot.

Cowan is ready for the pro game and might even end up as a full-time NHL player this season. Or, he could suit up for nine games without burning a year on his contract and get sent back to the London Knights.

Either way, he’s a glowing example of a player who could use time in the AHL this year and be available for recall when injuries hit, but the rules don’t allow junior players his age to go to the minors. It’s going to be very interesting to see how the next few weeks play out.

Cowan burst on to the scene in the second half of his draft year and hasn’t looked back. He’s ready to compete for an NHL roster slot right now and I would be giving him every opportunity to do so.

The Leafs will have some tough decisions to make regarding Cowan’s next path in his development.